PREMIUM: Team Totals & Trends To Know For The 2021 NBA Finals

By Dan Rivera

@DanRivera228

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We have finally have reached the NBA Finals, and within three weeks or so we will also have the Olympics for a little more hoops action. Possibly no one predicted these finals before the start of the 2020-21 season, and the sports gods themselves sometimes have a funny way of giving us stuff we don’t ever expect. With so many stars going down throughout the postseason, you can make a very good argument that neither of these two teams should be here. Leave it to CP3 to be the most injury-prone veteran still around and not to get injured in the playoffs so far, outside of his round one minor shoulder scare.

With Giannis more than likely out for game one (currently upgraded from doubtful to questionable as of Tuesday afternoon), I highly doubt he will be effective when he comes back. And although now we see a lot of people getting on the Suns' series price bet, keep in mind that you had a significant opportunity to bet them before the conference finals at a better number. If you are looking for something to bet for the series overall, the NBA Finals MVP could be worth a sweat, mostly because Giannis is listed third in series MVP betting and that is with him more than likely missing games. With that being said, let’s take a look at the numbers of these two teams coming into this year's 2021 NBA Finals and what we can extract from the data we have available. The numbers/totals below are taken from Oddshark, as always, for this article:

Bucks vs. Suns (2019-2020 regular season)

2 games played, 1 home and away

• 1^st Quarter Total Points: 65.5
• 1^st Half Total Points: 127.5
• 2^nd Half Total Points: 126.5
• Suns PF: 124
• Bucks PF: 130
• Total Points: 254

Bucks vs. Suns (2020-2021 regular season)

2 games played, 1 home and away

• 1^st Quarter Total Points: 56.5
• 1^st Half Total Points: 119.5
• 2^nd Half Total Points: 121
• Suns PF: 120.5
• Bucks PF: 120
• Total Points: 240.5

I am not a big fan of looking at regular season stats for the playoffs, simply because we know that the playoffs expose your weaknesses while the regular season displays your strengths. These teams are scoring a lot of points in the regular season the last two years but are totally different squads right now.

Suns in 2021 Playoffs (16 games)

• 1^st Quarter Total Points: 51.93
• 1^st Half Total Points: 101.21
• 2^nd Half Total Points: 107.43
• PF: 107.86
• PA: 100.79
• Total Points: 208.64

Bucks in 2021 Playoffs (17 games)

• 1^st Quarter Total Points: 51.76
• 1^st Half Total Points: 106.59
• 2^nd Half Total Points: 105.41
• PF: 108.88
• PA: 103.12
• Total Points: 212

The irony of these two teams meeting in this year's finals is that they are nearly identical in terms of offensive/defensive stats. They both also played against low scoring teams in round one and then saw some points later on in their other series matchups against the Nets, Hawks, Nuggets and Clippers.

Bucks in Playoffs Without Giannis (2 games)

• 1^st Quarter Total Points: 55
• 1^st Half Total Points: 105.5
• 2^nd Half Total Points: 124.5
• PF: 120.5
• PA: 109.5
• Total Points: 230

Bucks in Playoffs With Giannis (15 games)

• 1^st Quarter Total Points: 51.33 (four points less)
• 1^st Half Total Points: 106.73 (one point more)
• 2^nd Half Total Points: 102.87 (22 points less)
• PF: 107.33 (13 points less)
• PA: 102.27 (7 points less)
• Total Points: 209.6 (21 points less)

It's a very small sample size with no Giannis, and although MIL did just fine vs. ATL, the downside here is that PHX plays real defense and I expect the Bucks to struggle much more offensively here in this spot.

Suns in Conference Finals (6 games)

• 1^st Quarter Total Points: 47
• 1^st Half Total Points: 96.5
• 2^nd Half Total Points: 104.25
• PF: 100
• PA: 100.75
• Total Points: 200.75

Bucks in Conference Finals (6 games)

• 1^st Quarter Total Points: 55.17
• 1^st Half Total Points: 107.83
• 2^nd Half Total Points: 111.83
• PF: 113.33
• PA: 106.33
• Total Points: 219.67

Game 1 Totals @ FanDuel Sportsbook

• 1^st Quarter Total: 53.5 (-125 juiced to the over)
• 1^st Half Total: 108 (-112 juiced to the under)
• Bucks Team Total: 106.5 (-112 juiced to the over)
• Suns Team Total: 112.5 (-112 juiced to the over)
• Game Total: 219.5 (-112 juiced to the under)

The Suns-Clippers produced some ugly quarters and halves, with many low-scoring totals and a lot of missed shots (especially in Game 3). The Bucks-Suns, on the other hand, saw much less "crap basketball" and actually saw points outside of Game 2 from the Buck’s blowout win of Hawks. The best course of action here is to observe, listen and learn. With Giannis upgraded to questionable, we at least now have a small sample of what the Bucks offense looks like both with him on and off the floor, and we can look at both the last two regular seasons (4 games) as well as the entire playoffs of each team as well. There will still be edges available to us once we see these teams matchup and get some more info on Giannis' health, as well as how healthy/functional he is when he actually steps onto the floor. Until then, we wait.