Betting Predators Staff / Mike D'Angelo
Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Money Picks/Player Props Podcast Recap, where our very own R&D analyst-in-residence, Mike D'Angelo, provides a brief summary and roundup for our weekly player props podcast hosted by Sleepy J and Chris Dell. To listen to the full episode, which drops every week on Friday night/Saturday morning, click the audio player below or subscribe to the Betting Predators podcast here. Make sure to also check out Chris' weekly player props column, which drops every Sunday morning. To subscribe to Chris' free player prop column, as well as our other weekly NFL content, simply scroll to the bottom of this article and enter your email address in the form section. By doing so, you'll get an email alert each time we drop a new article on the website. Best of luck in Week 14, and enjoy the games!
Titans vs Jaguars (+7.5) - O/U 52.5
Chris likes DJ Chark Ov 56.5 Rec Yards + Collin Johnson Ov Rec Yds + Brown Ov Rec Yds + Davis Ov Rec Yds
Analysis:
Pass funnel defense for Titans, who are struggling defensively
Johnson has a clear connection with QB Glennon out of the gate
Plus match up with Johnson, but limited props thus far
Pass happy game, expecting 4 to 5 props for this one on official column
Sleepy Likes Davis Ov Rec Yards + Davis TD
Gone over posted total for 4 games
Emphasis on Brown seems to have opened the door for Davis
Books are expecting Tannehill to throw multiple TDs
Odds will be that he will targets his top receivers in the end zone
Notes: Chris mentions this is one of his favorite games for DFS stacking purposes. Challenging the worry of Titans pass catchers due to possible blow out. Mentions that Derrick Henry is a good DFS play here. Thinks game will be competitive. Chris mentions mistake by the books on setting yards for Brown less than Davis. Sleepy adds that he feels Henry does not need to be used as much.
Cowboys vs Bengals (+3) - O/U 43
Chris likes Giovani Bernard Ov 55.5 Rush Yards + Gallup Ov 50.5 Rec Yds + Lamb Ov 49.5 Rec Yds
Analysis:
Loves this play, mentions playing rushing + receiving is open to those that wish
Dallas is a bottom tier defense, also plus match up for Dallas pass catchers
Should be close considering they do not have the pass rush to get to Allan
Sleepy likes Dalton Ov 1.5 TD Passes + Strong Lean on DAL (-3) + Lamb Ov 49.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Bengals may not wanna win more games & tank for top OL
Dalton looking to have a big day, also thinks Lambs total is set way to low
Heavy juice on Lamb receptions and overall get right game for Dallas
Notes: Chris states this is his favorite game of the week for props. Loves this matchup for the Bengals. Mentions having Gio in DFS. People will shy away from Cincy. No trust in Brandon Allen, but could have some value on pass catchers in DFS. as well. Amari Cooper drawing the tough matchup here.
Arizona (-2*) vs NYG - O/U 45 (* = 2.5 - 1.5 at different books, 2 is the authors average)
Sleepy Likes Murray Ov Rushing Yards
IF he doesn't run, then Arizona is struggling, if they lose, season could be over
“Taking the leash off” and this prop should be at the lowest price here
Notes: Kenyan Drake officially Questionable. Chris states he will back off Murray Under Rushing (Hit twice in last 2 weeks). Been 3 weeks since shoulder injury. Limited props for this one, more of a wait and see scenario for Kyler's health. NYG gave Russ problems - not very confident with Murray now.
Texans vs Bears (+1.5) - O/U 45.5
Chris Likes Robinson Ov 71.5 Rec Yards + Leans Montgomery Ov Rushing Yds
Analysis:
Texans secondary minus Roby
Robinson continually disrespected by bookies
Prop should be high 70s, low 80s, but horrible QBs have limited him
Has a better match up than against the Lions last week
Sleepy Likes Duke Johnson Ov 3.5 Receptions
Analysis:
Value Play & Texans do not have many options
Has been getting more targets recently
Notes: Possible DFS play - Chad Hansen. Instantly came in and made a splash. Got the Fuller role. Cooks banged up and questionable. Hansen is Watson's deep threat. David Johnson on Covid List, Duke to be RB1 for Texans. A lot of variables due to injury.
*Broncos vs Panthers*
Notes on Carolina vs Broncos: Issues with Covid. No books have anything up as of podcast recording late Friday night. This is another wait and see scenario. Chris mentions that every prop analyst will likely have Anderson overs, but the Broncos can be run on too. May have a play on Gordon, just have to wait it out and see what the number is. Advised to watch for player prop column early Sunday morning, as that will come out closer to game time for official plays/numbers on the day.
Vikings vs Tampa (-6.5) - O/U 52.5
Chris Likes Thielen Ov 74.5 Rec Yards + Jefferson Ov 73.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
WRs are ripping up the buccs
Bucs play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league
One of the worst slot cornerbacks in the NFL (Sean Murphy-Bunting)
Vikings are targeting WRs 60% of the time, surprised if both don't hit
Sleepy Likes Kirk Cousin to throw an INT
Analysis:
Tampa to put pressure on Tampa & feels like Bucs will adjust defensively in this one
Stun the quarterback and make his job impossible - that's the best game plan
Notes: Chris suggests that Cook still has DFS value. Low owned due to the match up. Will mostly likely see passes and goal line touches as Mattison is still out. DFS/DK price at 9,400 - may still be a very viable play. Cannot say he will do well, but can not say he will not just based on his integration and importance in the offense. Mentions the possibility of stacking Thielen and Jefferson and including Antonio Brown as a high-upside bring back option for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense.
Chiefs vs Dolphins (+7.5) - O/U 50.5
Sleepy Likes Mahomes to throw an INT + Gaskin TD + Myles Gaskin Ov 54.5 Rush Yards
Analysis:
Value play (plus money) and this is not an easy match up
Mahomes could be trying to force it a bit against Fins' top DB's
Chris Leans Parker Under 56.5 Rec Yards (Liked Gaskin, but officially ruled out due to COVID-19)
Analysis:
Tua only wants to hit open receivers & WRs are struggling to get open vs KC secondary
Parker in a “plus” matchup vs Bengals in Week 13 and was still underwhelming
Colts vs Raiders (+2.5) - O/U 51.5
Sleepy Likes Waller TD
Analysis:
Gets production in offense at a high level; worth a pizza bet if you want action in this game
Chris Likes Jonathan Taylor Ov Rush Yards + Loves Colts -2.5 as best bet
Analysis:
Raiders secondary is very poor outside of Lamarcus Joyner, run defense even worse
Raiders got killed by backup Jets RBs Ty Johnson & Josh Adams in Week 13, keep it simple
Notes: Hilton and Pittman in consideration for this game. Official plays will be on the column. Great stacking opportunity in DFS for this game for Colts WR's with Waller/Agholor bring back options
Seattle (-13.5) vs Jets - O/U 47
Sleepy Likes Seattle (-13.5) as best bet + Leans Carson Ov 19.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Thinks the Jets will mail it in & Pete Carroll will want to roll them in "get right spot"
Chris Likes DK Metcalf Ov 75.5 Rec Yards + Leans Lockett Ov 64.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Get right spot after Week 13 loss; DK leads league in Rec Yds but has relatively low totals
Jets are a pass funnel defense & WRs specifically have torched the Jets all year
9-3 on DK overs this season, only times hit the under were against elite shadow coverage
Notes: Sleepy thinks it's a big game for Seattle. Do not know how the Jets proceed. Projects you can look at almost anyone for props on the Seattle side. Sleepy seems to suggest that due to Russ' past willingness to spread the ball around, they do not raise DKs Rec Prop #'s. DK is a big DFS play.
Packers (-7.5-10) vs Lions - O/U 54
Sleepy Likes Rodgers Ov 1.5 Passing TDs
Notes: D'Andre Swift is dealing with some issues apparently. Adrian Peterson says “he's just not right" and very vague descriptions being used around him. Chris says the beat reporters are the figures to look at here for information. Chris leans Lions pass catchers in DFS - Official picks (if any) to come on the column later. Sleepy mentions that they can look for other derivatives for Rodgers, but the official plays will probably come on the live stream and Chris' player props column on Sunday morning.
Falcons vs Chargers (+2.5) - O/U 49.5
Sleepy Likes the Total O49.5 + Leans the Chargers + Likes Ekeler Ov 39.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Chargers to throw the sink at Falcons; Wake up call to the Chargers after 45-0 loss
Chris Leans Ridley Ov 74.5 Rec Yards + Ito Smith Ov Rushing + Ekeler Under Rush + Allen Ov Rec if less than 6
Analysis:
Tougher matchup than usual for Ekeler on ground & Ridley vs Hayward
Ryan splits without Julio are massive this year, very inefficient passing
Ridley is just too good to pass up here due to talent, volume & game total
Notes: Chris says that he will have to check to see if Ridley makes the official players prop column. Chargers in the past month have been terrible against the run, giving value to Smith at just 20.5 yds
Saints vs Eagles (+7.5) - O/U 43
Chris Leans Hurts Ov 39.5 Rush + Emmanuel Sanders Ov 31.5 Rec Yds + Likes Emmanuel Sanders Ov 2.5 Rec
Analysis:
Hurts is too much of a question mark for Philly receiving props
MT value may be gone with rec yards compared to last week
Emmanuel Sanders has done well with Taysom Hill at the helm
Shop around for receptions - look for Ov 3 closer to -110 for E. Sanders
Sleepy Likes Hurts Under Passing Yards + PHI Team Total under (17.5) + Saints over 3.5 sacks + Hurts vs Hill passing yards (Hill) + Likes Miles Sanders Ov 49.5 Rush Yards
Analysis:
Hurts is gonna get destroyed vs Saints DL & Philly O-line is just plain terrible
Sleepy is worried about Hurts getting either injured or flat out benched here
Notes: Chris mentions that this is another wait and see situation due to Hurts being new in this offense. Sleepy does not count out a split rep scenario for Wentz and Hurts. Chris believes garbage time potential for Hurts is very possible as a dart-throw QB streamer if you're desperate.
Redskins vs 49ers (-3) - O/U 43.5
Sleepy Likes Mckissic Ov 35.5 Rec Yards + Receptions + TD
Analysis:
Gets targeted a ton with Alex Smith & now Gibson is out
McKissic needs to be involved in order for WAS to be in this game
Chris leans Aiyuk Ov Rec Yards + Mckissic Receiving Overs
Analysis
Gets the air yards
Gets the Targets
Mullins like to go for WR1 down the field
Notes: Gibson out with turf toe