By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.
Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.
Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with asterisks by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in either 2, 3 or 4 of the following categories:
- Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3
- *Added Threshold For This Weekend/Course Specific -> Strokes Gained Ball Striking of -3/+3 (*this data point will be applied below after the completion of Round 1 of the Palmetto Championship)
I will still also list the full set of golfer names here below who have met our original threshold of having a Strokes Gained Net Rating of either less than -3 or more than +3. The reason for adding the distinction between those who meet three/four thresholds - and those who don't - will help give us a clearer view of specific head to head matchup bets to attack from round to round and who gives us the biggest edge.
PALMETTO CHAMPIONSHIP: TOP BUYS FOR ROUND 3
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR)
****Patrick Rodgers +10.27
****Tyler Duncan +7.54
****Scott Harrington +7.13
****Kevin Chappell +6.92
****Jhonattan Vegas +4.79
****Doc Redman +4.27
****Danny Lee +3.18
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***Byeong Hun An +5.62
***Hudson Swafford +5.21
***David Lipsky +4.56
***Lee Tain +4.10
***Henrik Norlander +3.86
**C.T. Pan +3.85
***Chris Baker +3.62
***Tyrell Hatton +3.32
***Wilco Nienaber +3.32
***Garrick Higgo +3.19
***Michael Gellerman +3.05
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**Roger Sloan +4.63
**Bryson Nimmer +3.38
**Seamus Power +3.17
**Robby Shelton +2.69
**Ian Poulter +2.58
PALMETTO CHAMPIONSHIP: TOP FADES FOR ROUND 3
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR)
***Andrew Putnam -5.35
***Rafael Campos -4.56
***Richard S. Johnson -4.42
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**Luke Donald -4.17
**Satoshi Kodaira -3.07
**Matthew NeSmith -2.83
Strokes Gained Ratings Key
****Golfer qualifies in 4 of 4 buy/fade thresholds: SG putting, SG tee to green, SG ball striking, SG net rating (must always include SG net rating)
***Golfer qualifies in 3 of 4 buy/fade thresholds: SG putting, SG tee to green, SG ball striking, SG net rating (must always include SG net rating)
**Golfer qualifies in 2 of 4 buy/fade thresholds: SG putting, SG tee to green, SG ball striking, SG net rating (must always include SG net rating)
*If a golfer qualifies for at least one threshold as a both a buy AND a fade, then those will be subtracted. For example, qualifying as a buy in SG tee to green, SG ball striking and SG net rating, but also qualifying as a fade for SG putting, will result in a two-star buy instead of a three-star buy