By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.
Last Updated on Friday, June 4th @ 1:26 a.m. With nearly half the field unable to complete their first 18 holes on Thursday due to weather, we have some interesting data points to sift through before Friday morning tee time. The plan is for the golfers who didn't finish Round 1 to finish those 18 holes and then get right back out there for Round 2. Despite the limited number of data points, we still have just about 60 golfers who did put in a full round on Thursday. With a mixed bag of strokes gained stats due to Thursday's Round 1 semi-suspended day, we're still going to list all golfers below but with a special denotation for those who didn't complete 18 holes on day one. The last note I will make here is that for those golfers who shot less than 18 holes, we will lower their Strokes Gained Rating threshold to either below -2 or above +2, instead of the normal threshold of either below -3 or above +3.
Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.
Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1/round to round matchup bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
*Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with an asterisk by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in all three of the following categories:
- Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3
I will still also list the full set of golfer names here below who have met our original threshold of having a Strokes Gained Net Rating of either less than -3 or more than +3. The reason for adding the distinction between those who meet all three thresholds - and those who don't - will help give us a clearer view of specific head to head matchup bets to attack from round to round and who gives us the biggest edge.
ROUND 2: TOP BUYS
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR)
*Justin Thomas +7.68
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Bo Hoag +4.48
Shane Lowry +4.43
Patrick Reed +4.14
Brendan Steele +4.10
Xander Schauffele +3.68
Collin Morikawa +3.55
Emiliano Grillo +3.06
Matthew NeSmith +2.99
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**Carlos Ortiz +3.00
**Kevin Streelman +2.67
**Martin Laird +2.66
**Richy Werenski +2.58
**Antoine Rozner +2.31
**Bryson DeChambeau +2.24
ROUND 2: TOP FADES
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR)
*Adam Hadwin -5.34
*Troy Merritt -5.01
*Mark Hubbard -4.27
*Alex Noren -4.23
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Byeong Hun An -6.44
Hudson Swafford -4.89
Charles Howell III -4.80
Danny Willett -4.40
Keegan Bradley -4.03
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -4.00
Robert Streb -3.48
Camilo Villegas -3.42
Sepp Straka -3.30
Denny McCarthy -3.08
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**Cameron Tringale -2.55
**Harry Higgs -2.51
**J.T. Poston -2.11
Strokes Gained Ratings Key
**Golfer did not complete 18 holes on Thursday
*Golfer qualifies for all three buy/fade thresholds: SG putting, SG tee to green, SG net rating