By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.
The PGA Tour swings through the midwest this weekend with the Memorial Tournament beginning on Thursday at Murfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. While we typically save our best H2H matchup bets for Rounds 2-4, I still thought it would be helpful to highlight two data points from last weekend's Charles Schwab Challenge: Round 4 Strokes Gained Data AND Tournament Strokes Gained Data (Rounds 1-4). I'll make two separate lists below at the bottom of this article to mention who is worth a buy/fade coming off their most previous round performance (Round 4), as well as golfers worth buying/fading based off their entire performance at the Charles Schwab Challenge. This exercise has already helped to identify a few first-round matchup bets to target, as well as finding value on first round leader and overall tournament winner odds. Any questions? As always, feel free to hit me any time on the Tweeter, @MaddJournalist.
Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.
Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1/round to round matchup bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
*Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with an asterisk by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in all three of the following categories:
- Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3
I will still also list the full set of golfer names here below who have met our original threshold of having a Strokes Gained Net Rating of either less than -3 or more than +3. The reason for adding the distinction between those who meet all three thresholds - and those who don't - will help give us a clearer view of specific head to head matchup bets to attack from round to round. The full spreadsheet will also reflect this. Also please note that below, before a tournament begins, that we will lower the Strokes Gained Net Rating threshold for entire tournament data. You'll notice the that the buys and fades using an entire previous tournament (Rounds 1-4) include a Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -2 or above +2. Lastly, we will not include data from golfers who either were cut after Round 2 or who withdrew from the event.
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT: TOP BUYS
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green/Using Round 4 Data @ Charles Schwab
*Tony Finau +6.207
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Carlos Ortiz +5.50
Kyle Stanley +4.16
Camilo Villegas +4.14
Rafa Cabrera Bello +3.85
Matt Kuchar +3.76
Danny Lee +3.64
Justin Thomas +3.63
Charley Hoffman +3.38
Patton Kizzire +3.04
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green/Entire Tournament Data @ Charles Schwab
**Tony Finau +3.43
**Kyle Stanley +3.23
**Carlos Ortiz +2.60
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Tyler McCumber +2.93
Corey Conners +2.21
Collin Morikawa +2.13
Nate Lashley +2.06
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT: TOP FADES
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green/Using Round 4 Data @ Charles Schwab
Sung Kang -7.29
Xinjun Zhang -5.41
Mark Hubbard -4.52
Cameron Davis -4.47
Sebastian Munoz -4.43
Chris Kirk -4.01
Robert Streb -3.75
Pat Perez -3.43
Harold Varner III -3.36
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green/Entire Tournament Data @ Charles Schwab
**Mark Hubbard -3.29
**Sebastian Munoz -2.38
**Cameron Davis -2.10
Strokes Gained Ratings Key
**Golfer qualifies as buy/fade using Round 4 Data AND Entire Tournament Data (Rounds 1-4)
*Golfer qualifies for all three buy/fade thresholds: SG putting, SG tee to green, SG net rating