By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here.
Last Updated on Sunday, June 6th @ 1:16 a.m. EST: We finally have some normalcy happening at the Memorial Tournament in Dublin, Ohio - kind of. After our first full day of golf with no weather suspension or darkness suspensions (finally!) our #1 golfer in the field, John Rahm, tests positive for COVID-19 and has to withdraw from the tournament with a monster of a lead. Nonetheless, we get what we've been waiting for all weekend on Sunday - a full slate of normal tee times and consistent strokes gained data points for EVERY golfer left in the field. One important change to note below is that I've added another layer of thresholds that will help us "rank" our top buys/fades not just by our Strokes Gained Net Rating but by specific data within those ratings, including a course-specific data point of 'Strokes Gained Approach' that's an important stat for this specific tournament. We will use this new stat to help qualify buy/fade golfers by tier, and not just purely base off their Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR), which at times can be heavily skewed by extremely negative putting numbers (and not much else positive to speak for). For example, if a golfer loses 7 strokes putting in one round, yet only gains one stroke tee to green, his SGR will be popping off the charts (+6.00) even though he's only clearing technically one threshold (bad putting due to regress positively in the next round). On the contrary, a golfer who gained multiples strokes tee to green - but also putts fairly well - might not come in too strong compared to his peers with his SGR.
Primer/Intro: In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.
Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1/round to round matchup bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: I've added a few wrinkles to better help you sort through our buy and fade lists below AND search for the best available head to head matchup bets/odds possible. The golfers with an asterisk by their name will denote that they cleared our buy/fade threshold in all three of the following categories:
- Strokes Gained Putting of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green of below -2 or above +2
- Strokes Gained Net Rating of below -3 or above +3
- *Added Threshold -> Strokes Gained Approach of below -2 or above +2 (Course Specific Data Point)
I will still also list the full set of golfer names here below who have met our original threshold of having a Strokes Gained Net Rating of either less than -3 or more than +3. The reason for adding the distinction between those who meet all three thresholds - and those who don't - will help give us a clearer view of specific head to head matchup bets to attack from round to round and who gives us the biggest edge.
ROUND 4: TOP BUYS
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Third Round Data
***Carlos Ortiz +6.44
***Jimmy Walker +6.42
***Bryson DeChambeau +4.84
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**Antoine Rozner +6.03
**Si Woo Kim +4.20
**Collin Morikawa +4.19
**Patrick Cantlay +3.30
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Hideki Matsuyama +8.15
Jason Dufner +6.01
Charley Hoffman +4.51
Tony Finau +4.04
Sung Kang +4.00
Jim Herman +3.05
ROUND 4: TOP FADES
Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Third Round Data
***Xander Schauffele -4.59
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**Harry Higgs -5.53
**Billy Horschel -5.21
**Tyler Strafaci -4.99
**Xinjin Zhang -4.75
**Lucas Glover -3.14
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Rafa Cabrera Bello -5.09
Martin Laird -3.94
Troy Merritt -3.63
Bo Hoag -3.51
Sahith Theegala -3.51
Sam Burns -3.45
Kevin Streelman -3.09
Jordan Spieth -2.99
Strokes Gained Ratings Key
***Golfer qualifies for all three buy/fade thresholds: SG putting, SG tee to green, SG net rating
**Golfer has an SGR of +3/-3 and qualifies in either as a buy or fade in 'SG Putting' or 'SG Tee To Green' PLUS 'SG Approach' (Course Specific Data Point)