PGA Championship: Round 2 Best Bets, Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.

Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.

If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:

Outright Winners

0.10, (-4) Hoge @ BR 33:1

0.20, (-4) Zalatoris @ PB 11:1

0.05, (-3) Kuchar @ MGM 40:1

0.10, (-3) Ancer @ BR 33:1

0.05, (-2) Pereira @ FD 55:1

0.20, (-2) Cam Smith @ FD 13:1

0.05, (-2) Kirk @ PB 100:1

0.05, (-2) Na @ FD 90:1

0.15, (-2) Xander @ MGM 14:1

0.05, (-2) D. Riley @ MB 100:1

= 1 Unit

Round 2 Score Props (0.25 Units Each)

Koepka 73 or worse @ FD +120

Scott 73 or worse @ FD +108

Cantlay 72 or worse @ FD -108

Xander 71 or better @ FD -126

Finau 71 or better @ FD +134

Cam Smith 71 or better @ FD -126

Zalatoris 71 or better FD -102

= 1.75 Units

TNT Matchups (0.25 Units Each)

The Field > Rory/Zalatoris/Smith/JT @ BO -110

= 0.25 Units

RD2 TOP BUYS
The golfers listed below have an afternoon tee time scheduled for Round 2 on Thursday and will therefore avoid the worst of the morning winds/weather. They have also qualified as a “buy” candidate in at least one of the three statistical thresholds we are tracking this week, which include strokes gained around the green, strokes gained approach and “strokes gained net rating”; The asterisk(s) listed to the left of each golfer denote how many thresholds they have qualified as either a buy or fade. The number to the right of each golfer is our “strokes gained rating” number for the PGA Championship, which this week combines the two stickiest/most important stats of this golf course: strokes gained around the green and strokes gained approach.

(-3) ***Kuchar +5.14

(+1) ***Si Woo Kim +5.02

(-2) ***Pereira +4.49

(E) ***Molinari +3.95

(+1) ***Y.E. Yang +3.78

(+1) ***Young +2.75

—

(-2) **Cam Smith +3.77

(-2) **Kirk +3.25

(-2) **Na +3.09

(-1) **Finau +2.76

(-2) **Xander +2.53

(+3) **Palmer +1.64

—

(-4) *Hoge +4.10

(-3) *Ancer +3.69

(-1) *Pieters +2.91

(-1) *Reed +2.73

(E) *Noren +2.54

(E) *Hovland +2.46

(-4) *Zalatoris +2.43

(-1) *Cink +2.26

(E) *Macintyre +2.19

(+2) *Hideki +2.10

(-2) *D. Riley +2.03

(E) *Hatton +1.96

(-1) *Burmester +1.73

(+2) *Bubba Watson +1.70

(+2) *Daly +1.64

(+2) *Cam Davis +1.51

(+2) *Adri Arnaus +1.51

(-1) *Hossler +1.47

(+2) *Griffin +1.40

(+1) *Burns +1.26

(+2) *Yuki Inamori +0.73

(+2) *Dufner +0.44

RD2 TOP FADES
The golfers listed below have an early tee time scheduled for Round 2 on Thursday and will therefore have to golf through the worst of the morning winds/weather. They have also qualified as a “fade” candidate in at least one of the three statistical thresholds we are tracking this week, which include strokes gained around the green, strokes gained approach and “strokes gained net rating”; The asterisk(s) listed to the left of each golfer denote how many thresholds they have qualified as either a buy or fade. The number to the right of each golfer is our “strokes gained rating” number for the PGA Championship, which this week combines the two stickiest/most important stats of this golf course: strokes gained around the green and strokes gained approach.

***Wolff -5.14

***Collet -5.06

—

**Hurt -5.20

**Dickinson -4.03

**Stallings -3.64

**Scott -3.41

**Ramey -3.39

**Feenstra -3.14

**Cantlay -2.67

**Z. Johnson -1.96

**Tringale -1.73

—

*Koepka -2.38

*Higgs -2.28

*Joohyung Kim -1.95

*Van Rooyen -1.91

*Kinoshita -1.89

*Vegas -1.83

*Poulter -1.58

*Bingaman -1.51

*Beem -1.21

*Swafford -0.81

Strokes Gained Putting

Strokes Gained Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Tee To Green

Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green

SGR = Strokes Gained Rating

BS = Ball Striking

OTT = Off The Tee

APP = Approach

PUTT = Putting

ARG = Around The Green

T2G = Tee To Green

FRL = First Round Leader

SRL = Second Round Leader

TRL = Third Round Leader

DK = DraftKings

FD = FanDuel

CZ = Caesars

BR = BetRivers

BO = BetOnline

DSI = BetDSI

MB = MyBookie