By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.
If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:
Please Note: The numbers listed to the right of each golfer below are “strokes gained: tee to green”
We have a total of eight golfers from last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson who qualify as “top buy” candidates. This means that they each hit our threshold of “+1” in at least one of the stat categories we track (strokes gained around the green, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee) AND they each did so looking at both entire event data (Rounds 1-4) and looking at just Round 4 data. This also means that they did not qualify as a “fade” candidate in either of those data sets.
TNT BUYS (Using Rounds 1-4 Data From The AT&T Byron Nelson)
Golfers names listed in bold below qualify as a “buy” candidate while looking at both all rounds data (rounds 1-4) and round 4 data. The rest of the golfers listed below only qualified as a buy in one of those two data sets, not both. The asterisks used below are used to indicate how many stat categories a golfer qualified as a buy, meaning that they scored a “+1” or higher in of the four stat categories we track (strokes gained around the green, strokes gained approach, strokes gained off the tee and our “strokes gained net rating/tee to green” metric)
Golfers names who are also underlined below have an early tee time designated for Round 1 on Thursday morning, meaning that these are the golfers we will look to target for our opening bets and DFS lineups. Those “top buy” golfers with early tee times include Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele and Sebastian Munoz.:
**Spieth +2.93
*Schwartzel +2.64
*Hideki +2.60
*K.H. Lee +2.55
*Xander +2.47
*Pereira +2.27
*Scheffler +2.18
*Munoz +2.02
*Zalatoris +1.78 (CUT)
*Joohyung Kim +1.71
*Champ +1.45
*Hoge +1.32
*Ortiz +0.98
*Fleetwood +0.76
*Niemann +0.76
*Stallings +0.67
RD1 BUYS (Using Round 4 Data From The AT&T Byron Nelson)
Golfers names listed in bold below qualify as a “buy” candidate while looking at both all rounds data (rounds 1-4) and round 4 data. The rest of the golfers listed below only qualified as a buy in one of those two data sets, not both. The asterisks used below are used to indicate how many stat categories a golfer qualified as a buy, meaning that they scored a “+1” or higher in of the four stat categories we track (strokes gained around the green, strokes gained approach, strokes gained off the tee and our “strokes gained net rating/tee to green” metric)
Golfers names who are also underlined below have an early tee time designated for Round 1 on Thursday morning, meaning that these are the golfers we will look to target for our opening bets and DFS lineups. Those “top buy” golfers with early tee times include Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele and Sebastian Munoz:
***Xander +4.63
***Champ +4.03
***Power +2.47
***Scheffler +2.13
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**Hideki +4.46
**Spieth +2.89
**Wise +1.03
—
*Noren +2.83
*K.H. Lee +2.25
*Kuchar +2.21
*Kokrak +1.47
*Molinari +1.35
*Munoz +0.98
*Fleetwood +0.55
TNT FADES (Using Rounds 1-4 Data From The AT&T Byron Nelson)
Golfers names listed in italics below played all four rounds last weekend. The rest of the golfers listed below only played rounds 1-2 because of failing to miss the cut at the AT&T Byron Nelson. The asterisks used below are used to indicate how many stat categories a golfer qualified as a fade, meaning that they scored a “-1” or lower in of the four stat categories we track (strokes gained around the green, strokes gained approach, strokes gained off the tee and our “strokes gained net rating/tee to green” metric):
*Hadwin -2.22 (CUT)
*Westwood -2.05 (CUT)
*Norris -2.04 (CUT)
*Higgs -1.59 (CUT)
*Wolff -1.24 (CUT)
*Swafford -1.09 (CUT)
*Kisner -0.79 (CUT)
*Hughes -0.58 (CUT)
*Gooch -0.54 (CUT)
—
*Mitchell -0.89
*Day -0.67
RD1 FADES (Using Round 4 Data From The AT&T Byron Nelson)
The asterisks used below are used to indicate how many stat categories a golfer qualified as a fade, meaning that they scored a “-1” or lower in of the four stat categories we track (strokes gained around the green, strokes gained approach, strokes gained off the tee and our “strokes gained net rating/tee to green” metric):
**McNealy -2.66
**Poulter -2.16
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*Schenk -4.23
*Straka -2.49
*Kizzire -2.00
Redacted: Dustin Johnson, Ryan Palmer (qualified as both buy and fade candidates
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BR = BetRivers
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com