By Dan Rivera
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Defensive Lineman Taken Round One - O/U 4.5 (Over +110, Under -137)
The short answer to this question is walk away. The issue lies in how certain players, particular edge rushers, are deemed on TV (i.e. NFL Network). You need to check your book's rules to see where they are pulling the info from on what a player's position is here. A good example is Azeez Ojulari, who is deemed to be an OLB but could play DE. Let me explain - if Ojulari gets drafted by a team who plays a 3-4 front, then Ojulari will be an outside linebacker. BUT, if he gets drafted by a 4-3 front team, then he will be deemed as a defensive end/edge. Force lean I'd take the under here, but the possible positional issues alone could swing the over/under (and your bet), so try to find value somewhere else other than defensive line props.
Offensive Linemen Taken Round One - O/U 6.5 (Over +101, Under -125)
Penei Sewell
Rashawn Slater
Christian Darrisaw
Alijah Vera-Tucker
Teven Jenkins
We are getting five guys here who are locks to go round one, and in order to lose this under bet, we need another two guys to go. Alex Leatherwood to me is about 50:50 to be drafted in round one. Landon Dickerson, on the other side, has a history of injuries and is coming off an ACL tear. His most recent medicals weren't the best either, and I believe round one is a stretch for him even though he is round one type of talent. The problem with someone else going round one who I didn't mention is that they simply aren't showing up in mocks almost at all. Samuel Cosmi (Texas), Liam Eichenberg (Notre Dame) and Jaylen Mayfield (Michigan) are guys I have seen mocked at different spots, but they are all clearly round two material. The outs for these three aren't there in round one. The Indianapolis Colts do need a left tackle as well, but they could circle around in round two for that and I personally expect for them to go edge if Ojulari is there or to draft a defensive back instead. So at 6.5 we have 1.5 offensive linemen built in to get the under. It's significantly more likely that we get five or six different offensive linemen in round one than we do seven. I also strongly believe that this line should be at least 60% implied odds (-150), if not higher.
Best Value Bet - Landon Dickerson over 36.5 (-112)
For reference, this O/U is 39.5 on PointsBet, so we're getting some nice value at the current DraftKings number. This is a talented round one player for sure, and he was dominant at Alabama, but his injuries are a big concern. Dickerson tore his ACL in the SEC Championship game vs. Florida, and I recently found this quote via CincyJungle which strengthens my stance on this under: "in his five years at both Florida State and Alabama, Dickerson suffered four major injuries, two of which were season-ending injuries. Per NFL insider Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network, Dickerson’s medical history has many teams concerned about his long-term ability to stay healthy and have docked his medical grade accordingly." Some teams have said they wouldn’t take him until Day 3 of the draft, and even at picks 33 through 36 (Jags, Jets, Falcons, Fins), these four teams have way bigger needs than at center. At the top of round two there will still be plenty of talent left for these teams, and because of this I expect him to go in the middle of the second round at the highest. I also gave this out as my best bet on our NFL Draft 2021 Preview podcast.