Smoove's Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND MATCHUPS PREVIEW

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

• Opening Line: Chargers -2.5 / Total: 44.5
• Current Line: Chargers -3 / Total: 42.5
• Smoove Line: Chargers -3.53 / Total: 42.31

This total opened at 44.5, and the public is all over the over, with 81% of the tickets and 85% of the money. Still, it’s dropped to 42.5 because these defenses don’t allow many yards or explosive plays, and these offenses haven’t been known for consistently making explosive plays down the field. Houston is 7-1 to the under at home, and the Chargers are 6-3 to the under on the road. I made this total 42.31, so getting 42.5 is crucial to playing this total under.

Best Bet: Texans/Chargers under 42.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

• Opening Line: Ravens -8.5 / Total: 46.5
• Current Line: Ravens -9.5 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Ravens -6.34 / Total: 46.87

Baltimore would be my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but they’ll have a tough matchup against a division rival in the Steelers. Pittsburgh has not played well coming into the playoffs, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, including a 17-point loss to the Ravens in Baltimore, but this is a rivalry game in the playoffs, and I expect Mike Tomlin to have his team ready. This line opened at Steelers -8.5, and 43% of the tickets, 54% of the money is coming in on Pittsburgh, but the respected money is laying the big number with Baltimore and moved this number up to -9.5. My model made this line Ravens -6.34, so Pittsburgh will be up against some tough history as they haven’t won or covered a playoff game since 2017.

Lean: Steelers +9.5

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Billss

• Opening Line: Bills -8.5 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: Bills -8.5 / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Bills -2.38 / Total: 46.51

At the beginning of the season, the Broncos were a huge long shot to make the playoffs, but they became one of the more profitable and consistent teams in the league, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Now they have a tall task going on the road and facing an MVP candidate in Josh Allen and an explosive offense, but their defense can be exposed in the running game, which is one of the Broncos' strengths. This line opened Bills -8.5, and 60% of the tickets, but just 51% of the money is backing Buffalo. However, there’s a consensus line freeze at 8.5. I made this line much closer at Bills -2.38, so there’s value in backing the underdog in this matchup as underdogs in the wildcard round who missed the playoffs the previous year are 39-20 ATS (66%) since 2017.

Best Bet: Broncos +8.5

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

• Opening Line: Eagles -3.5 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Eagles -4.5 / Total: 45.5
• Smoove Line: Eagles -2.06 / Total: 45.40

These two teams met in the 1st week of the season in Brazil and went well over the closing total of 49.5, combining to score 63 points, but throughout the season, both teams were shown to have above-average defenses. Philadelphia is 6-2 to the under at home, and both defenses will have the edge over both offenses. This total opened at 47, and the public expects both offenses to light up the scoreboard as they’re getting 84% of the tickets but just 69% of the money. This total has dropped to 45.5, with just 16% of the tickets and 31% of the money coming in on the under, signaling sharp reverse line movement towards the under. I projected this total at 45.40, so it’s crucial to grab 45.5 and play the under.

Best Bet: Eagles/Packers under 45.5

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneerss

• Opening Line: Bucs -3 / Total: 50.5
• Current Line: Bucs -3 / Total: 50.5
• Smoove Line: Bucs -2.15 / Total: 51.53

These were two of the more explosive offenses all year long, as Washington ranked 9th in YPP and 5th in PPG compared to Tampa Bay, which ranked 3rd in YPP and 4th in PPG. These teams also played each other early in the season and went well over the closing total of 41.5, combining to score 57 points. This total opened at 50.5 with the public backing the over with 75% of the tickets and 81% of the money, and my model set this total at 51.53, so ride with the public play and take over with two of the more explosive offenses this year.

Best Bet: Commanders/Bucs over 50.5

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Ramss

• Opening Line: Vikings -2.5 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: Vikings -2.5 / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Vikings -5.22 / Total: 44.47

Due to the tragic wildfires in Los Angeles, this game has been moved to Arizona, which would kill the opportunity for the Rams to have some version of home-field advantage. You also have to wonder how focused the Rams will be, as most of them deal with the effects of the wildfires. This is also a unique situation with the Vikings being 14-3 SU and 11-5-1 ATS as a wildcard team. This line opened Vikings -2.5 with 48% of the tickets at 54% of the money backing Minnesota. My model made this line Vikings -5.22, which is my best bet of the wildcard round.

Best Bet: Vikings -2.5

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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