By Steve Rieder
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LOOK AHEAD OVERVIEW
Every week several domestic and off-shore books post lookahead lines for the following week’s games. Essentially, next week’s lines are being offered before this week’s games even kick off. Lookahead lines offer tremendous opportunities because of the uncertainty that goes along with it.
As the week progresses, the NFL betting marketplace becomes more efficient. Sharps and syndicates alike find the value in the sides and totals and correct the misprices. By the weekend, almost all of the value has dried up for the NFL Sunday slate becoming the most efficient marketplace in the world. The public will still bet their favorite teams, the heavy favorites, and their 10-team parlays without realizing how -EV their plays are. At this point, sharps and recreational betters alike would find more success turning their attention to next week’s look ahead lines.
Syndicates typically don’t spend as much time or energy with the lookahead lines, not because they don’t see the value, but because of the low limits. Much like the prop and derivative marketplace, lookahead lines are ripe for the sharp bettor to take advantage of. As a rule of thumb: the lower the limit, the better the value.
Lookahead lines typically don’t adjust as quickly as the current week’s lines. If a team gets steamed in the current week’s game, it is prudent to immediately look to see if there is value on the team the following week. Much like the Sunday night openers, betting lookahead lines are the most valuable at post. Some books may post on different days and at different times, but getting to know the schedule of your book can be extremely advantageous.
LOOKAHEAD BET HISTORY
WEEK 2:
- Pick: DEN -2.5
- Closed: DEN -6
- Outcome: WON
WEEK 3:
- PICK: NYG -2.5
- CLOSED: NYG -3 (+100)
- OUTCOME: LOST
WEEK 4:
- PICK: NE +5.5
- CURRENT: NE +7
- OUTCOME: WON
WEEK 5:
- PICK: MIN -7
- CLOSED: MIN -10
- OUTCOME: LOST
- PICK: BUF +3.5
- CLOSED: +2.5
- OUTCOME: WON
- PICK: BAL -6.5
- CLOSED: BAL -7
- OUTCOME: LOST
WEEK 6:
- N/A
WEEK 7:
- PICK: GB -7
- CURRENT: GB -7.5
- OUTCOME:T BD
We didn’t have an official pick for Week 6 because the books we pulled from didn’t have the actionable number, which makes our .500 record static. Our CLV record has now climbed to 6 out of 7 with our Week 7 lookahead line of Green Bay -7 now sitting at -7.5. The half point isn’t much, but getting a hook at a key number is huge. I still like the Packers, but I see why the line hasn’t exploded. GB is coming off a divisional rivalry game and have the undefeated Cards on deck. We may see questionable motivation for Aaron Rodgers coming off his “I own you” declaration. With that being said, the Packers are at home and the Redskins are just not good right now. My Power Ratings make the game GB -12 and although the line has dropped from 9.5, I love our lookahead bet and will probably tease them by Sunday.
WEEK 8 LOOKAHEAD LINES
GREEN BAY @ ARI (-3.5)
I pondered in my Power Ratings article about how much preseason expectations should impact a Week 7 Power Rating. I’m not sure I have a definitive answer after spending the last couple days pontificating. The Cardinals have increased by 4 points since the start of the year, which is substantial, but despite being the last unbeaten, only come in tied for 6th in my rankings. Arizona has some impressive wins over the Titans and the Rams, both of which were dominant winning by 15 and 17 respectively. They squeaked by the Vikings in Week 2, which is a game they probably should have lost. With wins over the Jags (who are terrible), the 49ers (with Lance under center), and Browns (with cluster injuries to the offensive line, wide receiver groupings, and a hurt Mayfield), the Cards are flawless on the scoreboard. This week, they don’t have much of a challenge. Playing the worst team in the NFL at home should be a cakewalk for just about any team not named the Jaguars. With little to be concerned about this week, the Cards could spend more time game planning for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
The Packers have only increased 0.5 since the beginning of the year. Their Week 1 performance was such an outlier that it is still impacting their statistical numbers. Both AZ and GB have a nYPP of 0.5. However, they were -1.0 nYPP in their loss to the Saints. If we really feel that opening week loss was an aberration, the Packers numbers are actually better than they appear. With a home game against the Football Team this Sunday, the Packers should have little to be concerned with being more than a touchdown favorite.
When analyzing lookahead lines, it is important to project the current week’s game and the market perception thereafter. If the Cardinals win by 40 points against the Texans, is that all that impressive? Probably not. In the same vein, if the Packers win by 2 scores, their perception isn’t altered either. I really don’t think we have to be concerned about either team losing their respective games, which means we can handicap the Cardinals Packers matchup with confidence today.
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