By Steve Rieder
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LOOK AHEAD OVERVIEW
Every week several domestic and off-shore books post lookahead lines for the following week’s games. Essentially, next week’s lines are being offered before this week’s games even kick off. Lookahead lines offer tremendous opportunities because of the uncertainty that goes along with it.
As the week progresses, the NFL betting marketplace becomes more efficient. Sharps and syndicates alike find the value in the sides and totals and correct the misprices. By the weekend, almost all of the value has dried up for the NFL Sunday slate becoming the most efficient marketplace in the world. The public will still bet their favorite teams, the heavy favorites, and their 10-team parlays without realizing how -EV their plays are. At this point, sharps and recreational betters alike would find more success turning their attention to next week’s look ahead lines.
Syndicates typically don’t spend as much time or energy with the lookahead lines, not because they don’t see the value, but because of the low limits. Much like the prop and derivative marketplace, lookahead lines are ripe for the sharp bettor to take advantage of. As a rule of thumb: the lower the limit, the better the value.
Lookahead lines typically don’t adjust as quickly as the current week’s lines. If a team gets steamed in the current week’s game, it is prudent to immediately look to see if there is value on the team the following week. Much like the Sunday night openers, betting lookahead lines are the most valuable at post. Some books may post on different days and at different times, but getting to know the schedule of your book can be extremely advantageous.
LOOKAHEAD BET HISTORY
WEEK 2:
- Pick: DEN -2.5
- Closed: DEN -6
- Outcome: WON
WEEK 3:
- PICK: NYG -2.5
- CLOSED: NYG -3 (+100)
- OUTCOME: LOST
WEEK 4:
- PICK: NE +5.5
- CURRENT: NE +7
- OUTCOME: WON
WEEK 5:
- PICK: MIN -7
- CLOSED: MIN -10
- OUTCOME: LOST
- PICK: BUF +3.5
- CLOSED: +2.5
- OUTCOME: WON
- PICK: BAL -6.5
- CLOSED: BAL -7
- OUTCOME: LOST
We went 1-2 last week, but at minimum, should have been 1-1-1. We had 3 points of line value with the Vikings, but after Alexander Mattison fumbled the ball while running out the clock, the Lions were able to score a touchdown to cover. After a furious 4th quarter and overtime comeback, Baltimore fell short of the number by the hook. Our Buffalo play was never in doubt. The Bills have established dominance over the AFC and maybe even the NFL as a whole. They are that good. Overall, our lookahead picks are 3-3, but we have closing line value in 5 out of 6. The one we didn’t, was our Patriots ticket in Week 4. This is still a small sample size, so it is tough to get too excited about everything. But finding closing line value in 83% of our lookahead plays is fantastic. Let’s hope we find the same fortune this week.
WEEK 7 LOOKAHEAD LINES
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7)
One of the lessons we learned this season is don’t back the underdog early. The market and, more specifically, the public has a tendency to back the better team causing the favorite to be inflated. When you are bucking that trend, it can be more prudent to wait and let the fandom and fervor do its thing. This was never more true than our aforementioned Patriots ticket. Our Power Ratings showed value with the Patriots +5.5, but the line was driven all the way up to +7 at post. I simply didn’t understand why the Patriots were getting a touchdown under the circumstances. The game played out exactly as I predicted with the Patriots covering with ease.
This week, we find ourselves in a different scenario entirely. Our Power Ratings actually show significant value in the Green Bay Packers. Having that 3.5 points of discrepancy can be disconcerting. Frankly, I’m left to ponder, why am I this far off market? Although I have Green Bay tied for 5th in my Power Ratings, which I think is fair, it's certainly possible my Power Ratings are too high. So let’s take a point away from Green Bay for the sake of argument. Afterall, Green Bay hasn’t exactly played murderers row. Maybe their 4-1 record is more about their opponents than their success. It’s also not the best spot. The Packers play Chicago this week in a division rivalry and play Arizona next week on national television on Thursday night. This sandwich spot is certainly not helping our cause. Let’s deduct another point for the situational spot. An extremely conservative estimate would make this game GB +8.5, making +7 still actionable. Let’s ignore the fact that the additional time may actually allow some of their injured players to get healthy...
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