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After spending the entire offseason parsing through last year's data, identifying the key acquisitions, departures, and coaching changes, reading up on the draft picks, and gleaning takeaways from the preseason, I've developed a list of Power Ratings for each team. Power Ratings are an invaluable tool for the bettor. By using Power Ratings we can create our own game spread and see if there are differences between them and the marketplace.
With the months that I spent tracking data, reading articles, listening to podcasts, etc. you would think I would have tremendous confidence in my Week 1 Power Ratings. The truth is, these are the least confident I will be all year. Sure we have the exhibition games of the preseason, but I generally dismiss those findings because no team, on offense or defense, are game planning for the opponent. Once Week 1 kicks off, we will have infinitely more data points to draw conclusions from.
That doesn't mean that our Power Ratings shouldn't be trusted in Week 1 or that these assumptions will be dismissed the following. In fact, I will only slightly adjust my Power Ratings to accommodate my Week 1 takeaway. It is important to be mindful that this is a fluid never-ending process. At the moment, I am higher than the market on the Dolphins, lower on the Bears, and I'm not convinced the Cardinals are even trying to win this year. We will see if those beliefs hold true in Week 1 or if I will need to make adjustments based on new information.
Week 1 Power Ratings
Week 1 Power Ratings vs. Lines
Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
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