NFL Wild Card Weekend Recap: Usage Notes & Utilization Numbers

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

Welcome to the Betting Predators NFL Weekly Recap/Notes & Numbers Column! I've included notes below for the six Wild Ward Weekend games we had this past weekend. This article will serve as more of a quick-hitting highlight post on my initial thoughts and takeaways from the week that was. I've also included a few brief notes below on each of the four Divisional Round games in regards to current lines and areas to potentially target for player props and DFS plays. For the sake of the playoffs, I will mostly focus just on the teams who won and are still in contention, as opposed to the losing/eliminated teams, except for matchup-based info. This will serve as the beginning of my props research for the week and eventually putting together my player props hit list and column for the weekend, as well as our DFS lineups on DraftKings. Questions? As always, hit me any time on Twitter @MaddJournalist. BOL!

Colts 24 @ Bills 27

• Bills allowed 9-7-70-1 to Jack Doyle and have continually struggled this year vs. TEs/Slot WRs
• Bills allowed combined 16-14-136-1 to Colts' three tight ends, could struggle vs. Mark Andrews
• Stefon Diggs continued alpha WR1 usage, 25.7% target share and 39.5% of Allen's yards (9-6-128-1)
• Cole Beasley used as WR2 and solid PPR day, but low aDOT led to 8.1 yards per catch and 7-7-51
• Gabriel Davis (4-4-85) was clearly more efficient than fellow deep threat John Brown (4-0-0)
• Singletary/Moss combined for 10-42 on ground 7-7-47 through air; *Moss OUT for rest of playoffs
• *Singletary likely to draw high ownership in DFS for Divisional Round with Moss ruled OUT

Ravens 20 @ Titans 13

• Ravens allowed 10-6-83-1 to A.J. Brown, could've been even more if Tannehill didn't miss Brown late
• Ravens vs. WR1's haven't been as good as you think; Stefon Diggs could be in for monster day again
• Lamar Jackson continues rushing onslaught; now 80+ rush yards in 5 of last 6, goes for 16-136-1
• J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards in near 50/50 split; Dobbins 9-43-1, Edwards 8-38, identical 4.8 ypc
• Marquise Brown team-high nine targets (most since Week 5), 7-109 and two rushes for 19 yards
• Andrews quite 4-41 line despite six targets, gets plus matchup vs. Bills defense struggling vs. TE's
• Patrick Ricard 4 targets led rest of BAL skill players (NOISE); Snead 2 targets, Boykin/Bryant 1 each

Browns 48 @ Steelers 37

• Browns allowed 501 passing yards and two 100+ yard WR's with positive game script end to end
• Browns continue to be pass-funnel defense; JuJu 19-13-157, Diontae 16-11-117, Ebron 11-7-62
• Nick Chubb now 75+ rush yards in 9 of last 12 games, has 5 + 4 catch/target games in 2 of last 3
• Jarvis Landry (8-5-92-1) and Rashard Higgins (7-2-28) similar in targets, not even close in efficiency
• Landry 6+ targets, 5+ catches and 50+ yards in 6 straight; Landry/Hooper get nice matchup vs. KC
• Austin Hooper now 5+ targets in 4 straight, including 15 and 11 targets in 2 of last 3; 11-7-46-1
• Baker Mayfield 250+ yards in 6 of last 7, playing ultra efficient as well, 14 TD's to 1 INT (!) in that span

Rams 30 @ Seahawks 20

• Rams continue to be average vs. run (Carson 16-77, 4.8 ypc), ELITE vs. pass (Wilson 11 completions)
• Rams finally allowed big game DK Metcalf (11-5-96-2), though he caught less than half his targets
• Cam Akers continues "Prime Gurley" bell-cow usage, 28-131-1 against tough Seahawks defense
• Akers also 2-2-45 with long reception of 40, now 15+ carries in 5 straight, 20+ in 4 of last 5 games
• Cooper Kupp looked fine after COVID-19 list stint, led team in targets (9) and receiving yards (78)
• Kupp benefits vs. Packers with Woods/Reynolds likely seeing Jaire Alexander/Kevin King on outside
• Robert Woods 8 targets (4-48-1), gets tougher matchup vs. GB; no one else more than 9 rec yards

Bucs 31 @ Washington 23

• Bucs couldn't stop WAS receivers/pass game (Sims 13-7-104, McLaurin 7-6-5, Thomas 9-5-74)
• Bucs continue to be a pass-funnel secondary, beating backup Heineke (26-44, 306) by just 8 points
• Lead RB played well (Fournette 19-93-1 and 4-4-39), hard to tell if RoJo is right/keeps starting role
• Chris Godwin (12-5-79-1) and Mike Evans (10-6-119) lead the way against tough defense
• Cameron Brate (6-4-80) more routes run than Gronk in 3 straight, leads 10-7 in targets in that span
• Antonio Brown (3-2-49-1) only other pass-catcher with multiple targets, just 7.5% target share
• Tom Brady 340+ pass yards in 5 of 6 and 6 of 8; just 209 and 239, 2 TD's and 5 INT's vs. NO though

Bears 9 @ Saints 21

• Saints allowed just 199 pass yards/48 rush yards; run/pass defense both hitting their stride
• Saints have allowed 17 or less in 7 of last 10; exceptions were Eagles, Chiefs, Vikings (garbage time)
• Michael Thomas continues to have modest at best target share with Brees, 7-5-73 (17.9% share)
• Deonte Harris first game since November 22nd gets career-high 7 targets, 7-7-83 ("likely" noise)
• Jared Cook 7-4-40, now has at least 4 targets in six straight games, 3+ catches in 5 of last 6
• Kamara just 9-40 and 12-16 on ground in two games vs TB this season (both positive game scripts)
• Kamara 21-56 overall rushing vs TB this year but also has 14 targets/10 catches in those games