Betting Predators Staff
Welcome to the NFL Week 13 Money Picks/Player Props Podcast Recap, where our very own R&D analyst-in-residence, Mike D'Angelo, provides a brief summary and roundup for our weekly player props podcast hosted by Sleepy J and Chris Dell. To listen to the full episode, which drops every week on Friday night/Saturday morning, click the audio player below or subscribe to the Betting Predators podcast here. Make sure to also check out Chris' weekly player props column, which drops every Sunday morning. To subscribe to Chris' free player prop column, as well as our other weekly NFL content, simply scroll to the bottom of this article and enter your email address in the form section. By doing so, you'll get an email alert each time we drop a new article on the website. Best of luck in Week 13, and enjoy the games!
Saints vs Falcons (+2.5) - O/U 46
Sleepy Likes Hill TD + Ryan to throw an INT
Analysis:
- Taysom Hill runs the ball a ton
- Has 2 rushing TD's in last 2 games
- Ryan has thrown a pick in 4 straight
- Probably gonna be used to throw a lot
Chris Leans Murray Ov 42.5 Rush Yards + Likes Ridley Ov 64.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Big value play on Murray
- Run-centric plays for saints
- He is beginning to out snap and out run Kamara
- Ridley last time they played had 9 targets
- 5 catches with 90 yards
- Saints can be taken advantage of
- No Janoris Jenkins
Detroit vs Chicago (-3) - O/U 44.5
Sleepy Likes Hockenson TD + Montgomery Ov 61.5 rush yards
Analysis:
- TJ Hockenson looked for a lot
- Big value play, plus Lions terrible against the rush
- Mitch Trubisky turns the ball over easily
- Nagy likely to take it out of Mitch's hands
Chris Likes Robinson Ov Rec Yards (Proj Mid 70s)
Analysis:
- Easily able to clear projected total
- Play Allen Robinson up to 80
- Has done well vs the Lions in the past
Notes: Chris also likes Montgomery over yards and talks about looking at rushing + rec total
Browns (+5.5) vs Titans - O/U 53
Sleepy Likes Landry Ov 65.5 Rec Yards + Landry TD + Henry Ov 95.5 Rush Yards
Analysis:
- Jarvis Landry is getting a lot of targets
- Tennessee pass defense is "not good"
- Good odds play with scoring a TD
- Derrick Henry is an animal, and it's very clear that he is a central focus to their game plan
Chris Likes AJ Brown Ov 71.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Thinks Henry will cause teams to stack box
- Ryan Tannehill can be efficient through the air when box is stacked
- AJ Brown has a great match up against the Browns here
Notes: Chris doesn't disagree with Sleepy's pick on Landry, but highlights but cautions bet with matchup with Desmond King covering the slot. Does mention that he has relatively low snap totals (67%-77%)
Dolphins (-10.5) vs Bengals - O/U 42
Sleepy leans Parker Ov Rec Yards, TD
Chris likes Parker Ov Rec Yards, play up to 75-80
Notes: So many variables at the time of recording, so no props out for Parker. No official starting RB or QB announced for MIA. Basically a pass, except for parker props, but need to wait for them to be released. Chris mentions that it could be the high 60s - mid 70s. He mentions that he would play it close to 80.
Vikings vs Jaguars (+10) - O/U 51
Sleepy Likes Robinson TD + Robinson 2 TD's
Analysis:
- Game plan centered to James Robinson running the ball
- Gets so much volume, so two TD's could happen
Chris Likes Robinson Ov 25.5 Rec Yards + Cousins Ov 262.5 Pass Yards + Leans Cousins Ov 21.5 completions
Analysis:
- Mike Glennon is big on check downs to RBs, dating back in Chicago days
- Threw to Robinson 6 times for 5 total catches in Week 12
- Books have caught up to receptions, but not rec yards
- Jags are getting killed in the air, plus Cook isn't 100%
Raiders vs Jets (+8) - O/U 46.5
Sleepy Likes Agholor Ov 39.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Derek Carr pissed due to last game
- Jets secondary cannot stop him
Chris Likes Mims Ov Rec Yards (Proj 45)
Analysis:
- Denzel Mims is Top 5 in NFL in air yards over last 5 weeks
- Jets have great matchup through the air as well
- 3 straight games with at least 8 targets
- At least 62 yards in those 3 games
- Probably play close to 55 rec yards
Notes: This will be the Devontae Booker show with Josh Jacobs out. Embarrassed against the Falcons, Carr struggled with turnovers but was actually halfway decent throwing the ball - Offense moved the ball Carr had 3 lost fumbles and offense had 5 total turnovers. Get right spot for entire Raiders offense here.
Colts vs Texans (+3.5) - O/U 51
Sleepy Likes Watson to throw an INT
Analysis:
- Deshaun Watson hasn't thrown many, but Fuller out
- Backfield is limited and inefficient
- May force Watson to do too much
Notes: Chris says it's a wait and see situation for the Texans offense. However, he backs Sleepy's INT prop play and mentions that Watson has given up 3 INT in the last two meetings with the Colts in 2019.
Rams (-3) vs Cardinals - O/U 48
Sleepy Likes Kupp Ov 5.5 Receptions
Analysis:
- Robert Woods to be lined up on Jalen Ramsey* (correction - Patrick Peterson)
Chris Leans Murray Un 40.5 Rush Yards
Analysis:
- Kyler Murray is injured and Arizona does not want him to risk the injury in a regular season game
- Just does not see him risking himself, as the shoulder affects his running AND throwing ability
Seahawks vs NYG (+11) - O/U 47.5
Sleepy Likes Gallman TD + Ov 53.5 Rush Yards
Analysis:
- Wayne Gallman has been a main wheel for the Offense
- Seattle should be able to do what they want
- Based on Colt McCoy being able to move chains
Chris Likes Gallman Un 53.5 Rush Yards + Metcalf Ov 74.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- No Daniel Jones, and Seahawks have been playing well since the Carlos Dunlap trade
- NYG have no way to score here, and Seattle run defense has been tremendous
- Seattle has the game script edge here to eliminate Gallman on the ground
- DK Metcalf is too good; back to the well, "if under 80 rec yards, auto play"
Green Bay vs Philly (+9) - O/U 48.5
Sleepy Likes Lazard Ov 42.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Davante Adams against Slay will open opportunity for Allen Lazard
- DB Maddox is "just bad" and should be covering Lazard or MVS
- Rodgers will identify the poor match up and exploit it
Chris Likes Goedert Ov 44.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Dallas Goedert is the clear #1 PHI receiving threat
- Could pile up catches and yardage in garbage time
- Helps Wentz a lot to move the ball with easy targets
Notes: Live bet depending on who lines up against DB Maddox. Chris raises the question, can Eagles really keep up? They are using their 11th offensive line combination this year. A lot of sacks coming in this game.
Chargers vs Patriots (+1) - O/U 47.5
Sleepy Likes Ekeler TD + Cam Newton Ov 191 Pass Yards
Analysis:
- Austin Ekeler to score a TD is great value at plus money
- Cam zig-zagging on good/bad passing games, playing the odds
Notes: Austin Ekeler is ranked as Chris' second best RB fantasy option this week. Very chalky though. Chris is avoiding props in NE games as per usual. Cannot foresee what Bill will take away from his opponents. He does like on Sleepy's analysis on Ekeler TD prop based on plus money value and "elite level usage."
Recommended Link: "Chris Dell's Top Player Props - Week 13"