By Mike D'Angelo
PLEASE NOTE: This article is a FREE preview of our new NFL 2021 In-Season Package, which includes best bet player props from the Betting Predators team for every primetime game and every main Sunday slate, as well as access to our private betting Discord channel for subscribers and much more. Click here to learn more about our in-season package and how to get access to our NFL Power Ratings, DFS Strategy & Top Plays for every slate, Projected Line Movements/Lookahead Lines and information about our top player props and best bets as we make our wagers throughout the week. Any questions? Please email us at bettingpredators@gmail.com or shoot us a DM/message or comment on Twitter @BetPredators.
DISCLAIMER: Some lines may change from the time of podcast recording and publishing of this written recap before Sunday. Also, please know that that these are not official plays. I only give a very simplified version of Chris Dell and Sleepy's handicaps here below, simply because there will be stuff you may miss if you don't listen to the podcast and because we only have so much time to digest this in written form. Be sure to listen to the Betting Predators' weekly Player Props "Money Picks" podcast every Friday and also read Chris Dell's NFL Player Props column (released Sunday morning on the website) for his official plays.
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New York Jets (+4) vs Carolina Panthers - O/U 45
Sleepy Likes Zach wilson longest completion Ov 35.5 Yards
Analysis:
Zach Wilson was known at BYU for throwing long bombs
Carolina pass rush is bad
Secondary for the panthers is not much better
Chris Likes Corey Davis Ov 54.5 + Elijah Moore Ov Receptions
Analysis:
Signed a decent contract
Flashed in fantasy (overachieved)
Rivaled AJ brown in every statistical category
Zach wilson will probably look for Moore in the slot a bit
Notes: Terrace Marshall for Carolina is also a guy that is being looked at but due to the other pass catchers on the Carolina team, there is uncertainty.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs Steelers - O/U 48
Sleepy Likes Najee Harris Anytime TD (+120)
Analysis:
Pitt wants to get the rookie involved
Not a deep running group
Probably is going to use him a lot of the time
Buffalo defense is not as good as people think and can get ran on
Total is high so Steelers are looked at to score quite a bit
Chris Likes Chase Claypool Ov 49.5 Rec Yards + Emmanuel Sanders Ov 33.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Value play
Low yards being set for him
Was able to make huge plays last year and now is projected to be in a shootout with Pittsburgh
Does not run the shallow routes
Big ben should be better than last year (health)
Have a running game to open up the passing
Sanders is suppose to be a #2 for Allen
Let go of John Brown
Sanders discounted because of inconsistency which was due to NO QB situation
In one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL
Notes: Chris likes all receivers for Pittsburgh, would not be surprised if they go over. However, he does seem to believe that the numbers are pumped up a little. Najee Harris is a target but there are too many questions on how he fits into the scheme.
Philadelphia vs Atlanta (-3) - O/U 48.5
Sleepy Likes Miles Sanders Ov 64.5 Rush Yards + Hurts Ov 39.5 Rush Yards + Russell Gage Ov 50.5 Rec Yards + Ov 4.5 Receptions
Analysis:
Philly struggled due to the offensive line
The offence is not as bad as people think
Make or break year for Sanders
Most of philly will be underpriced due to bias
Gage vs Maddox
Sleeper in this match up in the slot for Atlanta
Chris Leans Quez Watkins Ov 23.5 Yards + Dallas Goedert Un 42.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Seemed to click with jalen hurts in preseason
A lot of value on the number
Slated to be the WR3 in this offence
Crushed this number in both starts
Reagor has been a bust so far
Dallas went under this number every game he played with Hurts
Notes: Ridley should be doing well this season, should go over his total but not sure due to the high number. The market seems to be over adjusting.
San Francisco vs Detroit (+8.5) - O/U 46.5
Chris Likes Raheem Mostert Un 16.5 Carries
Analysis:
Line has moved down already
He has been very fragile
He has been under this number 21 out of 23 regular season game
Lions top OL player (LT) is out
Probably will not be able to compete with San Francisco
Have no reason to run Mostert into the ground
Notes: Line has moved to 15.5 carries for Mostert, still comfortable to bet at this number. Chris leans Swift Ov Rec yards, Under 43.5 rushing Yards + Williams Un 30.5 Rush Yards. Can see Goff checking down to Swift a lot as he did with Gurley a couple of years back. Season Long bets - D'andre swift Under Season Touchdowns and rushing yards.
Arizona vs Tennessee (-3) - O/U 53.5
Chris Likes Rondale Moore Ov 2.5 Catches + AJ Brown Ov 67.5 Yards
Analysis:
An amazing value play on Moore
He can break the defence in one catch or take in six of his targets
Fits in this system
Biggest shootout of the week
AJ Brown is not getting enough market respect
Julio needs time with Tannehill
Will likely find brown out of habit
Notes: DFS Perspective may try to stack Tennessee QB and WRs then add Hopkins to bring it back. Avoiding the Running backs in this match up. No concern over AJ Brown. Sleepy mentioned Hopkins to score a TD (+120). Murray is likely to throw a lot against a poor secondary and find his safety blanket.
Seattle vs Indianapolis (+3) - O/U 49
Sleepy Likes Cris Carson Ov 15.5 Rec Yards + Leans Carson TD
Analysis:
Last year he was targeted 46, 37 receptions
Overlooked in this offense
Always seemed involved around the goal line
He cleared this in 7 of his first nine games last year
Chris Likes DK Metcalf Ov 74.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Plays with an incredibly efficient QB
New OC hopefully gets Metcalf open more this season
Most physically talented in the league
Lockett is getting older, No reason for DK regression
74.5 simply not enough for this player
Notes: Sleepy has nothing on this game, the game was not of interest. Chris Agrees with sleepy on the Carson pick but does mention that he has to look into it. Also Everett is a target and Dissly under yards. *Future bet made by Sleepy = Mike Evans Ov Yards*
Vikings vs Bengals (+3) - O/U 47
Sleepy Leans Joe Burrow Ov 7.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Analysis:
Hit this 7 out of 10 games last year
Health is questionable
Logic here is: would rather run away from someone to save your knee then get clobbered in the pocket
Chris Likes Tee Higgins Ov 59.5 Rec Yards + Leans Thielen Un Rec Yards + Likes Boyd Ov 4.5 Receptions
Analysis:
Higgens is the guy and will get volume here
Top 10 Fantasy Rec with burrow at the helm
Vikings defence is better but not elite
A lot of additions on the back line
Thielan was used for touchdowns while Jefferson was used to move chains
Notes: Burrows health is an issue, or rather a question mark. Dalvin Cook should have a massive day against Cincy. Not sure if Cincy will even be competitive in this game. Tyler Boyd is also a big target.
Chargers vs WFT (-1) - O/U 44.5
Sleepy Leans Fitzpatrick Ov 1.5 TDs
Analysis:
Should be able to do a job and get multiple people in end zone
Likes to gun the ball down the field, especially early
Has a bunch of weapons at his disposal (Gibson, Mclaurin, Thomas)
Chris Likes Jared Cook Under 33.5 Receiving Yards + McLaurin Ov 71.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Former XFL star 6’ 7” guy could split work here
Tough match up
A plethora of targets for Herbert will likely shift attention away from cook
Even though the number is low, he has compete in his own position it seems for targets
Herbert will likely go to people that he's comfortable with, and Cook has just arrived
Very Juicy for washington
Fitz has not played with such weapons before in his career
At home in a plus matchup and better QB play
Notes: Keenan Allen is very juiced on his Ov Receptions (very popular play). Tough to bet on Ekeler.
Jacksonville vs Houston (+3) - O/U 46
Chris Leans Brandin Cooks Ov Rec Yards
Analysis:
Tyrod taylor can move the ball
Uses his weapons to a passable degree
Cooks is the only man left standing in this offence and gets a good match up in a bad Jax secondary
Notes: Sleepy skips out of this one.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs New Orleans - O/U 49.5
Sleepy Likes Alvin Kamara Ov 4.5 Receptions (5.5 now)
Analysis:
Wiston is probably going to be made to relax on the deep throws a bit
Offense is going to be run around Kamara
Chris Likes Marcedes Lewis Un 8.5 Rec Yards + Adam Trautman Un 13.5 Yards + Aaron Jones Ov 19.5 Rec Yards + Calloway Ov 44.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Had 9 rec yards or less in 5 out of the 6 first games
Tonyan clearly the first pick TE
Jowan johnson has been converted to TE and seems to be pick 1 for the saints
Trautman was taken off the field weeks ago so his health is a question
AJ Dillon is not known to catch the ball
Jones to have most of the work in this back field
Calloway with a competent QB as a WR1 should not be that low of a number
It may be a chance but a risk that is worth taking in this week one matchup
Cleveland vs Kansas City (-5.5) - O/U 54.5
Sleepy Likes Tyreek Hill Un 6.5 Receptions
Analysis:
CEH to take some of the targets
Sammy watkins leaving and now hardman steps in could take away targets
Cleveland knows he's a problem and will look to shut him down
His yards are more volatile but can possibly limit his receptions
Dolphins vs Patriots (-3) - O/U 43.5
*No one likes anyone at this game, Meyers is a target for Chris but not really interested when this podcast was done*
Denver vs NYG (+3) - O/U 41.5
Sleepy Likes Teddy Bridgewater Ov 1.5 Touchdowns
Analysis:
A lot of weapons at his disposal
Not sure if running in the endzone will be what Denver does
Feels like Throwing against this Giants secondary will happen
Chris Likes Jerry Juedy Ov Receiving Yards + Receptions + Lean Ov Javonte Williams Carries
Analysis:
Teddy liking to check down to his low A-dot receivers
Year 2 break out narrative
Has great value on his props