By Chris Dell
Please Note: The player prop lines below were available at the time they were given to our NFL 2021 In-Season Package subscribers on our Betting Predators Private Discord Channel. In order to get an alert the moment after I place one of my prop bets and get the best line available, I highly recommend signing up for our in-season package, which gives you access to my best bet player props + DFS top plays for every primetime game AND every Sunday main slate. You'll also get access to our private Discord, as well as our Betting Predators' NFL Power Ratings, Lookahead Line Forecasts and Player Prop Podcast Article/Written Recaps. Lastly, you'll notice that a lot of my best bet player props also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here. Any questions? Hit me on Twitter @MaddJournalist:
- Chris ' Overall 2021 Props Column Record: 52-59
- Chris' Overall 2020 Props Column Record: 159-111
(0.75) Kareem Hunt OVER 45.5 Rush Yds @ FB -125 / (0.5) UNDER 94.5 Rush Yds @ FD -114
Going for 1.25 U exposure on this prop, and I will preface this handicap by saying please check back on Friday's practice reports out of Cleveland because both Hunt and Chubb were listed as practice DNP's on Thursday. Nonetheless, there's also still a chance Chubb could be more banged up than Hunt and not the other way around. The fact remains Hunt has rushed for 51+ yards in four straight games (10+ carries in every game) and gets arguably his best matchup of the year back at home in Cleveland against Arizon's 31st ranked run defense according to PFF. Against the Cardinals, and since Week 1, opponents have put up combined rushing totals of 177 (Vikings), 159 (Jaguars), 121 (Rams) and 152 (49'ers). That's an average of 152.5 rushing yards allowed per game, and if we even give Hunt 33% of that production on Sunday he's clearing this total. I tend to give him roughly 40-45% of it, which means given the matchup and usage recently I wouldn't be surprised to see Hunt almost double this number. Buy price: 47.5; ALSO, for anyone who was able to play the over 45.5 rushing yards I gave out earlier in the week to our subscribers (we also mentioned this play on our free props podcast), then this is almost a must fire middle opportunity. We’re getting a gap of nearly 50 yards, more than double the original buy price .hunt himself , while filling in for Chubb, still isn’t 100% himself. I’ll go half unit on this under and try to come out of this situation up over one full unit if we can successfully navigate this tremendous middling opportunity. Buy price: 92.5
Kareem Hunt UNDER 20.5 Carries @ Caesars -135
Would go half unit down to 18.5 which fanduel has right now at -114, coaches mentioned hunt is banged up and trust the other rbs in Felton/Johnson, the latter of whom they gave carries to last season when needed and the fact Cleveland plays on a short week as well with week 7 having them on Thursday night football vs a tough run D in Denver. Buy price: 19.5
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 39.5 Pass Att @ Pinnacle -111
The only two games Mahomes has needed to cross this threshold is when KC has trailed by multiple scores early. I don’t believe that happens this Sunday given chiefs are near TD favs on the road. I believe mahomes gets it done with EFFICIENCY against a putrid Washington secondary and won’t need the volume in order to rack up the production/yards. Outside of the Bills/Chargers games where KC trailed big Mahomes has 30/31/36 passes. On the road and potential to get up big here in a get right spot all point to the under here and projecting around 34-35 attempts for him at the moment. Buy price: 37.5
Nelson Agholor UNDER 39.5 Rec Yds @ FD -114
Agholor has gone under this total in 3 of his past 4 games as Mac Jones has ranked at the bottom of the entire NFL in downfield accuracy. That's a major problem for Agholor, who primarily lines up out wide and will mostly see budding star DB Diggs in coverage during this game. Agholor's last four receiving lines have been 3-3-21, 8-2-17 (Lattimore), 5-3-55 (vs. Bucs pass funnel), 4-3-32. His aDOT (average depth of target) has decreased in consecutive weeks as well, down. to 9.8, but his routes/targets have not increased with it, leaving us some cushion to avoid the long attempts/shots down the field. I'm comfortable playing this line down to 36.5 or half unit to 34.5. Dallas ranks fourth overall in coverage, and with the Patriots at home but are middle of the pack in stopping the run and allow way above average target/reception rates to opposing RB's. With Brandon Bolden, Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry all set to serve as safety blankets for Jones underneath, I just dont trust agholor to get the volume or win the matchup here. Buy price: 36.5
Aaron Jones OVER 54.5 Rush Yds @ Caesars -115
PointsBet also had this line at 53.5 for -130 (earlier in the week when we posted this in our private discord channel), but I'd prefer to not eat so much vig and just go with the extra yard here. Jones has posted 67+ rushing yards in three of his past four games while seeing 14+ carries in every single one of those contests. On Sunday he now gets a Bears defense which ranks 20th overall in run stopping grade according to PFF and we have Jones projected accordingly for roughly 68-69 yards in this spot. The only game Jones didn't reach this total (but came close) was against the Steelers' top 5 ranked run D two weeks ago (I'm obviously scrapping the anomaly of Week 1 in which the Packers rested starters while getting blown out in the third quarter, but that goes without saying). With an extremely limited Bears passing attack and Fields dealing with a sore knee and limited mobility, I see no reason why the Packers don't lean on their two RB's + defense being four-point road favorites in an all important divisional game. Buy price 58.5 rushing yards.
Darrell Williams OVER 10.5 Rush Att @ DK -105
Throw out Week 5, a game in which in the Chiefs lost by nearly 20 points, trailed throughout and were forced to essentially abandon the running game with such a large deficit.To add insult to injury, CEH left the game early and is set to miss multiple weeks. Enter Darrell Williams, who in his past two starts (both in last year's playoffs) carried the ball 13 times in each game. If you extrapolate the Chiefs' RB rush attempts from Weeks 1-4 (16-16-24-25) you'll see an average of 20+ rushing attempts going to KC RB's/FB's. With CEH down and the only other options being oft-injured third down back Jerick McKinnon and fullback Michael Burton, I expect the Chiefs to let "the mentor" Darrell Williams handle 75% of their RB carries on Sunday. And in a game with a now steamed 56.5 total and KC favored (positive game script = more carries), I'm comfortable with this line and feel we have a solid cushion with Williams projecting for nearly 14 carries. Buy price: 12.5 rushing attempts
Terry McLaurin OVER 25.5 Longest Reception @ DK -110
"Scary Terry" has gone over this total in 3 of 5, but most importantly of note is that he's gone over this total in 3 of 3 when not facing Marshin Lattimore or James Bradberry. Coming into the Chiefs' Week 5 against the Bills their secondary had been allowing the most completions of 20+ yards and then we saw Buffalo torch them to the tune of three 35+ yard plays in the passing game despite a season-low 26 attempts from Josh Allen. The Chiefs have allowed the following players to post 30+ yard receptions this season: David NJoku (43), Jarvis Landry (32), Anthony Schwartz (44), Marquise Brown (42), Mike Williams (43), DeVonta Smith (37), Dawson Knox (53), Stefon Diggs (51) and Emmanuel Sanders (35). McLaurin receives a clear matchup upgrade lining up against the Chiefs' Charvarius Ward, Mike Hughes and L'Jarius Sneed this weekend and is coming off a game in which he saw 11 targets for 163 air yards in Week 5, ranking fifth most in air yards on the week. With the Team likely in catch up mode in this one, we expect added throws and opportunities for McLaurin downfield. Buy price: 28.5 yards
Ja' Marr Chase OVER 26.5 Longest Reception @ DK -110
Chase has tallied a 34+ yard reception in every game this year, and I see no reason for this streak to stop while playing on a fasttrack/dome in Detroit. The Lions rank DEAD LAST in coverage grade by PFF and have allowed 27+ yards receptions this season to the likes of Justin Jefferson (37), Darnell Mooney (64), Allen Robinson (28), Mark Andrews (41), Sammy Watkins (36), Marquis Brown (37), James Proche (29), Davante Adams (50), Deebo Samuel (79) and George Kittle (35). That's an average of 2 per game if you lost track, in addition to the fact Detroit is allowing 16.2 yards per receptions/11.2 yards per target to WR's this year and we're just one week removed from Chase ranking third in the NFL in air yards (185) in Week 5 (he's top 10 over the last 3 weeks as well. I currently also lean to his over receiving yards as well (juiced to the over at most shops, currently -115 @ Points Bet) but love this longest reception prop given the usage trends and matchup in Week 6. Buy price: 28.5
Chase Claypool OVER 62.5 Rec Yds @ Pinnacle -115
The fact Diontae & Chase are still left in the low 60’s following JuJu’s season-ending injury is a mistake by the books imo. Chase 70+ yards in every game not being covered by the Bills’ Tredavious White & is averaging nearly 100 yards over his last three games with 6+ targets in every game. Big Ben has still been able to connect with the big play Claypool despite his accuracy issues and this matchup on Sunday Night Football is as good as it gets. This line should’ve been set at at least 70. Buy price: 66.5
Rondale Moore OVER 39.5 Rec Yds @ BetMGM -110
All of Moore’s underlying usage rates have gone up consecutively over the last three weeks, including his routes run, targets per routes run, target share and air yards share. We’re now in a situation where the Cardinals have no tight end this week and just traded for Zach ertz although he won’t be joining the team until next week. What this is going to do is force Arizona to do what they did at the highest rate all of last season - run 10 personnel (aka 4 WR sets). This is also a game in which ARI is underdogs , on the road and project to be trailing which they haven’t experienced much of all this season and will lead to elevated drop backs and passing attempts for this offense. In the two games decided by 7 points or less for Arizona this year we’ve seen Moore rack up heavy usage, 14 targets, 12 catches, 172 yards. That’s no coincidence and his big play ability gives us a chance to hit this over early as well. Buy price: 44.5
Kadarius Toney OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards @ BetMGM -110
The news of Darius Slayton being ruled out and Daniel Jones looking healthy gives me confidence in Toney to have another high usage game today. Toney lined up a lot out wide last week and with Shepard back (primarily a slot receiver) it's actually Shepard who should see more of Jalen Ramsey since Ramsey has spent most of time defending the slot this season. A negative game script for Toney, in addition to Shepard taking away defensive attention in the shorter areas of the field, should give us some nice shots for intermediate/deep attempts in a game the Giants should be dropping back to throw a ton sans Saquon. Buy price: 55.5 yards*
Ricky Seals-Jones OVER 3.5 Receptions @ Caesars +105/ OVER 34.5 Rec Yds @ Caesars -115
Half unit on each prop for me in order to take advantage of nice value on the +105 receptions wager here. The league's highest O/U total in Week 6 also gives us possibly THE worst two secondaries in the entire NFL. The Chiefs have been completely eviscerated by tight ends this year, allowing TE combined receiving lines of 10-7-120 to the Browns in Week 1, 6-6-66 to the Ravens in Week 2, 4-3-46 to the Chargers in Week 3, 13-11-116 to the Eagles in Week 4 and 5-4-118 to the Bills in Week 5. Need I say more? "RSJ" is THE tight end in this Washington offense and has resumed Logan Thomas' entire role while seeing consecutive week increases across the board in routes 87%, TPRR (targets per route run) 20%, target share 24% and air yards share 13%. He caught 5 of 8 targets for 41 yards in Week 5 as the Football Team played from behind against a tough Saints defense and will be involved heavily in what could be a massive shootout scenario in catchup mode for Heinicke & Co. Buy price: -115/36.5
(0.75) Javonte Williams OVER 9.5 carries @ DK -135
Javonte Williams has just 8/7 carries in his past two games but those have come against tough AFC North opponents in the Steelers and Ravens. In the Broncos' first 3 games he recorded attempt counts of 14/13/12 and this week gets a bottom 10 graded Raiders run defense and a team in shambles off the loss of their head coach. Melvin Gordon has been listed as questionable on the injury report all week while Javonte appears to be as healthy as an RB can be in the NFL from week to week, which gives us a nice floor for his workload in Week 6. Teams playing the raiders have combined for 34 RB rush attempts (Bears), 29 (Chargers), 20 (Dolphins) and 21 (Ravens). The only team who didn't eclipse this total was the Steelers, who have been dealing with a patchwork run blocking unit all year long. A modest projection of just 50% of Denver's rushing attempts this weekend gives us a nice floor to work with here and I'll lay 0.75 units to mitigate as much of the vig as possible on our exposure. Buy price: 10.5 carries*
(0.75) Henry Ruggs OVER 23.5 Longest Reception @ DK -130
Playing this at less than a full unit to avoid the vig and only have around one unit of exposure, but nonetheless I like this prop for Ruggs to beat on Sunday. The Broncos defense, although solid, is much stronger at defending the slot/inside with Bryce Callahan lining up against Hunter Renfrow and have actually given up a large amount of chunk gains through the air this season. Last week they allowed the noodle-armed Big Ben to connect with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool for 59/50 yard completions respectively and also allowed the Ravens trio of Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews and James Proche III to each record a catch of 24 yards or more. Even against the struggling Jaguars pass game in Week 2 we saw Marvin Jones and James O'Shaughnessy tally 24+ yard catches, as did Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton in Week 1. Rugg's have routes have increased in consecutive weeks (87% routes on dropbacks) and despite a downward targets per route run rate I believe the Raiders will try to take advantage of Denver through the air as the Broncos have the #2 ranked run defense but 26th ranked pass rush grade by PFF. Ruggs has exceeded this number in 4 of 5 games this season (in the game he didn't, he still recorded a catch of 23 yards vs MIA). He's had 5+ targets and 3+ catches in all but one game this year and just needs one play to help us cash this ticket, rather than him getting the volume needed to beat his regular receiving line. Buy price 26.5
(0.5) Marquise Brown OVER 23.5 Longest Reception @ DK -115
In Week 5 we saw Brown put up a massive 10-9-125 receiving line with a long catch of 43 yards, now giving him a reception of 29+ in every game this season and a 37+ yard catch in four straight games. It's a tougher matchup than usual for Brown in Week 6 with the Chargers on deck, but that hasn't stopped opposing WR's from recording 24+ yard catches on LAC via Terry McLaurin (34), CeeDee Lamb (34), Travis Kelce (28), Henry Ruggs (51), David Njoku (71) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (42). Brown's separating from DB's at a truly elite level this year and his QB is throwing it better than ever before. I trust the duo will connect for at least one big play on Sunday with Herbert & Co on the other side forcing the Ravens to keep up and pass a ton. Also have my eye on Brown/Andrews/Lamar in the passing game but wanted to play this first. Buy price: 25.5