By Chris Dell
Please Note: The player prop lines below were available at the time they were given to our NFL 2021 In-Season Package subscribers on our Betting Predators Private Discord Channel. In order to get an alert the moment after I place one of my prop bets and get the best line available, I highly recommend signing up for our in-season package, which gives you access to my best bet player props + DFS top plays for every primetime game AND every Sunday main slate. You'll also get access to our private Discord, as well as our Betting Predators' NFL Power Ratings, Lookahead Line Forecasts and Player Prop Podcast Article/Written Recaps. Lastly, you'll notice that a lot of my best bet player props also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here. Any questions? Hit me on Twitter @MaddJournalist:
- Chris ' Overall 2021 Props Column Record: 32-35
- Chris' Overall 2020 Props Column Record: 159-111
1.5 Hubbard O 22.5 Rec Yds @ Pinnacle -110
Chuba's snaps (73%), long-down-distance (100%), short-down-distance (66%), 2-minute offense (100%), routes-per-pass play (72%), targets (22%) and targets per route (22%) all point to elite usage sans CMC in this offense in the receiving game. In less than a full game + a positive game script vs HOU last week we saw Hubbard see 5 targets which he turned into 3 receptions for 27 yards. The Cowboys defense, on the other hand, has faced the league’s highest pass rate and fastest pace on a situation-neutral basis. Where they've been beaten up in the receiving game is by opposing RB's. Eagles (10 targets-8 catches-65 receiving yards), Chargers (11-11-68), Bucs (10-7-39) all piled up receiving usage to their RB's against the Cowboys. The Panthers have yet to trail for a single snap this season and still target their RB's at an elite rate. if we even sniff a negative game script/trailing situation for Carolina then Chuba could smash and double this prop early in this game, especially if he struggles on the ground. Buy price 23.5
1.5 Mills U 207.5 Pass Yds @ Caesars -115
The only quarterback to surpass this total against Buffalo this year was Taylor Heinicke in Week 3 (212 yards). Mills is no Heinicke folks, and even Big Ben with 32 attempts (188 yards) and Brissett with 40 attempts (169 yards) couldn't even sniff 200. Mills and the Texans will be content with speeding up the clock to run out until Tyrod Taylor returns from IR, especially against a stout Bills secondary which will likely have Tre'Davious White shadow Brandin Cooks anytime he lines out wide (roughly 70%+ of the time), and maybe even more. The Bills also rank 5th in coverage (according to PFF), 5th in overall defensive grade and 9th in pass rush grade. Mills threw for 168 yards on 28 attempts (6.0 YPA) in Week 3 in his first full NFL start and that was in a much better matchup and at home. Now we get this game in Buffalo with Mills' first ROAD start. We have Mills projected for 186.5 yards, making this a best bet. Buy price 202.5
1.5 Kupp O 82.5 Rec Yds @ DK -115/6.5 Rec @ MGM -139
It's quite possible this line just can't be set high enough . Kupp is running 74.5% of his routes from the slot and giving Stafford a WR to target in all levels of the field. He's now tallied 108, 163 and 96 yards in three straight games to open the 2021 season and has actually seen his targets INCREASE in three straight games as well (10-11-12 for 7-9-9 receptions). Last year in his lone game vs Arizona and with Goff at QB saw Kupp amass a receiving line of 9-8-73 while in 2019 he put up 10-7-99 in his regular-season finale. The track record has been there against this team, and we now get a very healthy 55 point total with an underrated ARI pass rush and LAR most likely still down it's #1 RB in Henderson. Split up your bet between these two props for 1.5 U total on Kupp after we easily cashed on him in Week 3. QB upgrade means everything in 2021 and the game environments points to another Kupp week. Buy price 88.5/-150
1.5 Kirk O 42.5 Rec Yds @ DK -115
Sleepy J & I talked about this prop extensively on our money picks/props podcast this week and I can’t find a reason to get away from it. One of the most mispriced lines of the week imo. Also considering Edmonds here as well in a potential shootout. Listen to the latest player props episode here. Buy price 45.5
1.0 Beckham O 65.5 Rec Yds @ MGM -115
OBJ's projection of 75 yards in one of the most fantasy-friendly environments makes me love him in this spot. No Jarvis Landry, a 50+ over/under total, on a fast track, with a plus WR/DB matchup. The Vikings' Breeland last week allowed 6-67-1 on six targets against Seattle and his 64 fantasy points allowed this season ranks 2nd among all defensive backs. MIN, in turn, has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to WR’s and most over expected, as well as surrendering the 4th-most points to the perimeter, which is where Breeland and Peterson line up. OBJ aligned outside on 83% of his routes in Week 3 and totaled 77 yards in his first game back in more than a year. Buy low now while the number is soft. Buy price 68.5
1.0 DeVonta Smith O 47.5 Rec Yds @ DK -115
Smith has emerged as a buy-low candidate after the Eagles offense ran into a few touch matchups with San Francisco's pass rush in Week 2 and Dallas' T Diggs providing elite shadow coverage in Week 3. Smith registers a "-1.5" expectation rating which shows he's due for more production compared to the air yards/targets/routes he's been receiving in this offense. A more than healthy 54.5 total on Sunday pits the Eagles back home against the poor secondary of KC in a game that could easily shoot out. Firmly entrenched as PHI's top WR and not projected to be shadowed or in danger of a tough matchup, we could see a big bounce back for Smith here and great GPP tournament play. Buy price to 48.5, half unit to 52.5
1.0 Waddle O 3.5 Rec @ Caesars -160
Waddle leads this Dolphins team with 26 targets on the year and saw half them alone in Week 3, as Brissett targeted the rookie slot receiver 13 times with Waddle hauling in 12 catches (!) for 58 yards. Waddle's role in this offense is secure despite Fuller's return (operating strictly as a down field receiver). Waddle now has 5 targets/4 catches, 8 targets/6 catches and 13 targets/12 catches in three career games and benefits greatly due to MIA's quick-hitting pass happy offense with shallow targets and room to run for yards after the catch. The colts' zone scheme opens the door for even more production to opposing slot receivers as evidenced by Lockett's 5-4-100 in Week 1 and Kupp's 11-9-163 in Week 2. MIA is passing the ball the third-most in the NFL and are above the league average in pass percentage regardless of game script/situation. I like this at 4.5 at plus money too. Buy price only to 4.5 at plus money
0.75 Engram O 29.5 Rec Yds @ DK -115
Pointsbet also had -155 for 27.5 as this line was steamed this past week but not high enough imo. Strong indicator that this is how we’re best suited to take advantage of the cluster injuries. Buy price 31.5 yards
0.5 Hardman U 41.5 Rec Yds @ PB -115
Hardman has seen his routes run decrease now in 3 straight weeks, down to 60% in Week 3. He's gone over this total just once this season, needing 8 targets to do so in Week 2 when the Ravens were essentially triple-teaming/bracketing Tyreek Hill. I expect Hill and Kelce to lead the way in this one against a suspect Eagles defense and Darius Slay not possessing the speed to contain Hill in potential shadow coverage. Hardman has seen a negative average depth of target in 2 of 3 weeks as well, being used in a minor gadget role in this offense, leading to higher receptions/low yardage. We have him projected for 35-36 yards as a part-time player losing targets to CEH, Pringle and Robinson to boot. Buy price to 39.5
0.5 Maxx Williams O 2.5 Rec @ Pinnacle +126
Rams have been targeted all season by opposing tight ends and maxx is Hogging all the routes, snaps and targets at the position that Dan Arnold left behind last season. Rams’ pressure up front is going to force Kyle to scramble and look for check downs to his safety blankets at rb, te and slot. This is why we’re on Kirk as well. Love the plus money here. This will give us a total of four units on LAR/ARI now with kupp, Kirk, Hopkins and maxx. Possibly adding one more with Edmonds. I love this game. Buy price +120
Other Plays I Bet For Week 4:
1.0 Dyami Brown U 20.5 Rec Yds @ FB -105
1.0 Callaway U 39.5 Rec Yds @ Caesars -115
1.0 Carson U 2.5 Rec @ MGM -118
1.0 Berrios U 29.5 Rec Yds @ Caesars -115
0.75 Fuller O 24.5 Rec Yds @ MGM -118
0.5 Hopkins U 70.5 Rec Yds @ FB -110
0.5 Gesicki O 3.5 Rec @ DK +125
0.5 C Davis O 51.5 Rec Yds @ Pinnacle -115
0.5 C Davis O 4.5 Rec @ Pinnacle +130