By Dan Rivera
After every draft, sports odds makers allow you to bet on OROY. Similar to the DROY odds I put together, I wanted to see if past history shows us any useful any info in terms of betting. All info is pulled from pro-football reference. Lastly, click here if you would like access to the data itself instead of looking at the pictures. It will take you to a Google spreadsheet so that you can use the data or do your own research without having to starting from scratch.
Takeaways from the table
- This is largely a QB and RB award: 21 of the last 25 winners have been either QBs or RBs
- This is largely dominated by round 1: Seventeen of 25 have won the award and 13 of the last 16
- No TE or offensive lineman has ever won
- The award has gone to a player from the NFC in 13 straight seasons – Vince Young in 2006 is the last AFC player to win it (sports betting dime)
- Dan Marino is the only QB to win OROY with less than 12 starts in his rookie season (sports betting dime)
- The Vikings have the most OROY winners with five; there are nine teams who have never had an OROY winner: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks (sports betting dime)
I also found this from sports betting dime (same article as above):
Among the 53 Offensive Rookie of the Year award winners, 38 of them were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, and 46 of them were drafted in the first two rounds.
- Mike Anderson (RB) of the Denver Broncos is the player selected latest in the draft to win the honors – Anderson was selected 189th overall in 2000.
- Eight of the ten QBs to win the award were drafted in the first round
- Almost 75% - 24 of the 34 RBs to win the award - were drafted in the first round
- Six of the nine WRs to win OROY were drafted in the first round – Anquan Boldin in 2003 was the last non-first round WR to win the award
- WRs have won this award nine times, RBs 34 times, and QBs 10 times for the lifetime of this award
Burrow and Edwards-Helaire
To no one’s surprise, Burrow is the favorite to win this award in the +225 area. The biggest mover so far that was hit hard by sharps is Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH), who was 19/1 to win at some shops post-draft but has come down significantly since then.
CEH finds himself in a very favorable situation in the Chiefs offense with a lot of touches up for grabs. The Chiefs face the 10th easiest SOS (via Warren Sharp), which would allow CEH to rack up some garbage time stats. The Chiefs are also playing five primetime games, allowing for more media members to see him. The best odds I have found currently show CEH at 6/1 on DraftKings.
Between CEH and Burrow, I like CEH more than Burrow even with the price drop on CEH. Burrow plays in a brutal division against three teams that are superior to the Bengals and are top 10 defenses by most metrics. The Bengals play the 22nd toughest schedule (Sharp) and I expect Burrow to struggle a lot with defenses he plays.
Players not named Burrow or Edwards-Helaire
The table below shows all the offensive odds for the first two rounds of the draft:
Some players that are in contention with Burrow and CEH that stand out to me? Let's start with D’Andre Swift. He is in a very favorable situation and can be found at 12/1 on DraftKings and Betonline. We know the Lions want to #EstablishTheRun under the current coach and OC. Kerryon Johnson has a nice role currently, but he cannot stay healthy. In 2018, Johnson played 10 games and start seven. In 2019, Johnson played eight games and started seven. Swift will be a backup to start the season, but with a chance to get major touches toward end of the year. The Lions finished 2019 at #11 in offensive line ranking from PFF.
The Lions play the 8th easiest schedule (Sharp), and Stafford should play for most of the year. I went on a podcast with Mackenzie Rivers and he brought up a good point with Swift. If (when) Kerryon Johnson gets hurt early in the year, Swift’s true odds will drop significantly and will offer some real hedge value come end of the year if Swift is in contention.
I don’t give the WRs much thought because none of them are in an advantage situation due to either QB play, not being the WR1 on their team, or simply not enough touches on a team (such as CeeDee Lamb).
I also don’t give any thought to Herbert or Tua. They won’t be starting most of the year, and their coaches will go conservative when they do play, hurting their stats.
Finally, this is how past OROY winner odds have looked (Sports Odd History). This is a small sample size, but only twice have winners been outside of the top 10. The odds are a day or two before kickoff, so a lot of these lines have had sharps hit them already (such as Dak being the starter when Romo got hurt).
References
- https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nfl/offensive-rookie-year-odds/
- https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/2020-strength-of-schedule.html
- https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/ap-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-award.htm
- https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-following-2019-regular-season
- https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-odds/
Update as of July 28
This article was written and researched in late May. I stand by my CEH pick (currently 7/1 on DraftKings), Swift pick (currently 16/1 on DraftKings), and another one I like is Tua (currently 10/1 on BetOnline or 8/1 on DraftKings). Burrow is in the 2/1 territory, but I still don’t buy him this year, I think the Bengals are going to stink and COVID has hurt his off-season development. I don't buy into WRs this year either, all hype with too many holes in each player's case.
Tua seems like he will most likely be playing 12-13 games this year. Tua has been rehabbing for some time now, the Dolphins are much more improved on defense, drafted a lot of young talent, and seem like a team that is probably a six or seven win team. The Dolphins' problem last year was that they just lacked talent. If Tua comes in and gets six wins, I think this is his award. Fitzpatrick will take a beating the first few weeks and I expect when Tua gets on the field he will look otherworldly because no one has seen him play since last fall. I do encourage you to move quickly on this line. If the media reports come out saying how awesome he is, this line will drop.
You might be wondering about his hip injury; well, this tweet is from May 30th by Edwin Porras. He has a Doctorate of Physical Therapy and his expertise is in all things orthopedics, injury recovery. He also has a special interest in human performance.
He followed up with this tweet below.
Edwin does a podcast for fantasypoints.com. You can find on twitter @FBInjuryDoc. You can also create a free account to see his player details for Tua along with other players at Fantasy Points.
