NFL Lookahead Forecast & Best Bets - Week 4

LOOKAHEAD LINES: COLUMN OVERVIEW 

Every week several domestic and off-shore books post lookahead lines for the following week’s games.  Essentially, next week’s lines are being offered before this week’s games even kick-off.  Lookahead lines offer tremendous opportunities because of the uncertainty that goes along with it.   

As the week progresses, the NFL betting marketplace becomes more efficient.  Sharps and syndicates alike find the value in the sides and totals and correct the misprices.  By the weekend, almost all of the value has dried up for the NFL Sunday slate becoming the most efficient marketplace in the world.  The public will still bet their favorite teams, the heavy favorites, and their 10-team parlays without realizing how -EV their plays are.  At this point, sharps and recreational betters alike would find more success turning their attention to next week’s look ahead lines.  

Syndicates typically don’t spend as much time or energy with the lookahead lines, not because they don’t see the value, but because of the low limits.  Much like the prop and derivative marketplace, lookahead lines are ripe for the sharp bettor to take advantage of.  As a rule of thumb: the lower the limit, the better the value.   

Lookahead lines typically don’t adjust as quickly as the current week’s lines.  If a team gets steamed in the current week’s game, it is prudent to immediately look to see if there is value on the team the following week.  Much like the Sunday night openers, betting lookahead lines are the most valuable at post.  Some books may post on different days and at different times, but getting to know the schedule of your book can be extremely advantageous.  

LAST WEEK’S LOOKAHEAD BET 

Our Week 1 lookahead bet was DEN -2.5, which not only closed DEN -6, but covered with ease.  We followed that up with NYG -2.5 on the Week 2 lookahead.  We predicted the Giants would be in a close contest against the Bills (they lost 30-29) and the Falcons would get blown out (they lost 48-25).  Although we don’t have the 3.5 point line this time, I still like our position and we have some CLV in the process.  The G-Men are currently 3-point home favorites over the Falcons in the battle for the basement.  Both teams are 0-2, not good, and on the precipice of seeing their season slip away.  Whoever loses this game might as well start looking forward organizationally to 2022, 17 games be damned. 

Atlanta was supposed to have a high-powered offensive attack, but have the 3rd lowest points per game in the league.  Their defense, which was expected to be a dumpster fire, has lived up to expectations, surrendering 40 points per game, the worst in the NFL.  With Matt Ryan slowly fading away into oblivion, the Falcons may soon be flightless.  They do have an advantage on the defensive line accumulating 6 sacks in 2 games.  Now they go against an offensive line in shambles. Despite the big named cornerbacks for the Giants, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see Calvin Ridley finally break through and have a big game. 

On the other side of the ball, the Giants' stats look better than Atlanta’s, but then again they didn’t have to play the defending Super Bowl Champions.  Daniel Jones actually was impressive on Thursday Night, hitting targets despite being under fire.  The team had a poor off-season and preseason as they dealt with injuries, player retirement, and cohesion issues.  The latter of which was readily apparent as Kenny Golladay was seen screaming on the sidelines at Daniel Jones, the offensive coordinator, or anyone who would listen.   

Overall the Giants have better personnel and potential on both sides of the ball, are at home and have ten days to prepare.  Arthur Smith is also a first-year coach who has a longer leash.  If Joe Judge and company can’t right the ship, their days could be numbered.  If there is a must-win in Week 3, this feels like one for the Giants especially with a game in New Orleans on deck.  With the market at -3, our Giants -2.5 looks just fine.

A couple to ask regarding a lookahead bet that has closing line value: 

• Do I still like my original bet?
• How confident am I in my original bet?
• Am I overexposed on my original bet?
• Is there a reason to limit exposure?
• Is there value in the second play irrespective of the first?
• Is the percentage chance for a middle opportunity large enough to overcome the vigorish I’d be sacrificing if one side loses?
• How conservative of a bettor am I?

WEEK 4 LOOKAHEAD LINES 

Last week we didn’t have much disparity between our power ratings and the lookahead lines, but this is a different week entirely with several games off our Power Ratings.  This isn’t necessarily good or bad, but it's certainly something that we want to double-check to make sure we aren’t too high or low on a team.  When I identify a game that has significant disparity, I always want to double-check to see if I’m missing something.  Several of these games imply a healthier team than we currently have for Week 3.  Remember, our Power Ratings are a snapshot in time and not a projection of where they will be next week or the end of the year for that matter.  With that caveat, let’s look at our options for Week 4. 

Washington Football Team @ Atlanta Falcons +1/+1.5 

I make this game ATL -1.5, but the market is dealing WAS -1/-1.5.  Considering we are picking Atlanta to lose this week, it wouldn’t be prudent to take them on a lookahead.  We potentially could get more value when the lines repost Sunday night.  With that being said, if that comes to fruition, we may have additional concerns with Atlanta next week that could drive down their Power Ratings.  Starting off 0-3 could be a dream crusher, especially with a veteran quarterback in Matt Ryan who is past his prime and closing in on retirement.  Right now it's a pass and I wouldn’t be shocked if we felt the same next week even if we get a better value with ATL.

Tennesse Titans @ New York Jets +6.5 

My Power Ratings make the game Tennessee -4.5, which would be enough value to play the Jets.  However, the Titans should roll the Colts regardless of who suits up at Quarterback and Denver has been pretty lights out and should have their way with Zach Wilson who has been dreadful through 2 weeks.  This yet another game where we want to kick the can down the road and look to see if we can get more than a touchdown on an opening line.  At that point, Zach Wilson will have another game under his belt against an easier defense in the Titans, and the Titans should be sitting fat and happy with 2 straight victories.  I can’t imagine they would be overly enthused to play the Jets.  Let’s put a pin in this one as well.

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills -15.5 

We will keep this one short.  Although the Power Rated line looks off from the market, it really isn't.  In games with big spreads like this one, we usually make the fourth quarter an even matchup.  Anticipating the Bills would have a comfortable lead in the fourth, there is no reason for them to get margin.  I’d imagine they would call off the dogs at this point.  Houston could even be in line for a backdoor cover.  There are no style points in the NFL and tie breakers rarely come into play.  We are going to pass this one.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots +5.5  

Holy SH!!!T! Are we actually doing this?  Tom Brady, the man with the worst nickname in sports that somehow still makes it look cool, returns home to face off against his curmudgeon old coach/nemesis and the former team that he won 6 Lombardi Trophies with.  This has to be the most-watched regular-season game in NFL history.  I’m getting heart palpitations just thinking about it.  The storylines alone are worthy of a TNT series (they know drama).  Is it possible to fade the greatest quarterback ever and the defending Super Bowl Champions?  What if doing so meant you had to back a quarterback who when he was selected in the draft walked with the same fervor and enthusiasm as an elementary school student who just found out they were the line leader?  Let’s take a breath and dissect the situation.   

Tampa Bay has a game this week against the Los Angeles Rams.  Although we have Tampa Bay power rated as the best team in the NFL, the Rams are 4th.  The Rams opened up the favorite, which enabled us to tease the Bucs up to +8.  With money coming in on the road team, we now see TB -1.5 as the market consensus.  The Rams are a really good team and no one would be surprised if they end up knocking off the kings of the NFL Sunday afternoon.  Bruce Ariens and company will have to be extremely focused on this week with little to no time to prepare for Week 4.   

The Patriots find themselves at home against a New Orleans team that makes Jekyll and Hyde seem normal.  The Saints blew out the Packers in the opener only to be dominated the following week by the Panthers.  Jameis Winston looked like the second coming before succumbing to the second version of what we saw of him in Tampa.  It’s tough to predict what he will do from week to week, but if there is one coach in the NFL that will exploit his weakness, you better believe it's Bill Belichick.  The Saints do have a good defense and should limit Mac Jones' success.  Sean Payton is too good of a coach to let this game get out of hand.  I expect a close one either way.   

With more information at our disposal, let's actually analyze this week 4 matchup.  The Patriots don’t have to travel in back-to-back weeks, which provides them extra time to prepare.  On the other hand, Tampa Bay has to fly across the country to play the Rams, fly home, and then fly back north to play the Patriots.  I know home-field advantage has been minimized in recent years, particularly with the luxurious travel accommodations most of these teams are afforded, but that is a significant distance and time spent in the air.  There is also a huge difference in climate between Florida, California, and Connecticut that could have some impact on player performance.  Not that either team would look past their Week 4 opponent, but the Patriots play the Texans and the Bucs face off against the Dolphins.  So there will be no lookahead distractions for either team.  

Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback the sport has ever seen, but there isn’t a coach in NFL history that has more information on his strengths and weaknesses than Bill Belichick and his hoodie.  The same can be said for Rob Gronkowski and, to a lesser extent, Antonio Brown who also spent some time in New England.  Ultimately, Belichick is superior to Burce Ariens schematically and you know Bill has had this game circled since the schedule was released.  The market says that this game would be TB -10.5/11 if it was played in Tampa.  There are just too many reasons to bet New England, not to mention the largest line disparity (through the key number of 3!) that we have seen to date.  FanDuel is already shifted NE +5.5 to (-114).  I don’t think we get this number once it reposts and may start disappearing as this week progresses.  Let’s buck the Bucs and take the points. 

LOOKAHEAD BEST BET: NE +5.5 @ DraftKings (-110)