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Mackenzie Rivers, Chris Dell and Smoove deliver you the most actional analysis and best bets on NFL sides, totals, teasers and props for the '24 season.
NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND MATCHUPS PREVIEW
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5 / Total: 43
- Current Line: Chiefs -8.5 / Total: 41.5
- Smoove Line: Chiefs -18.10 / Total: 31.75
Kansas City finally gets to open up their run to be the first team to win 3 Super Bowls in a row and their fans will be electric. As we know the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era have not been profitable as a favorite laying more than 3 points going 22-32-1 ATS (41%) as a favorite of 7 points or more and this season he’s 0-5-1 ATS in that spot but there’s another trend working in the favor of Kansas City and it has to do with rest. Kansas City in the Mahomes era when they have 13+ days of rest they’re 19-3 SU and 13-9 ATS (59%). Houston will also be up against a trend that doesn’t favor dome teams playing outside in cold weather as dome teams over the last 20 years playing in sub-30 degree weather in the playoffs are just 2-7 SU with a MOV of -10 PPG. This line opened Chiefs -7.5 with 45% of the tickets and 49% of the money backing the Texans but this line has moved from -7.5 to -8.5 indicating respected money are backing the Chiefs. My model has Kansas City winning in blowout fashion by 18.10 points and moving onto host the AFC Championship game.
Best bet: Chiefs -8.5
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
- Opening Line: Lions -10 / Total: 54.5
- Current Line: Lions -9.5 / Total: 55.5
- Smoove Line: Lions -8.79 / Total: 49.25
Washington started the season with long shot odds of 150-1 to win the Super Bowl so there considered to be the one team that shouldn’t be here but the skill set and poise of Jayden Daniels has been a big reason why they’ve made it to the divisional round. This is the highest total on the board and for good reason as Washington is 11-7 to the over and Detroit is 9-8 to the over. This total opened at 54.5 with 48% of the tickets and 57% of the money backing the under but this total has moved from 54.5 to 55.5 indicating respected money backing the over. However, there’s been 17 totals in the playoffs with a total of 55 or more and the under is 7-4 since 2013-14 going under by 7.1 PPG and my model set this total at 49.25 so I think there’s value in fading the respected money on the over.
Like: Commanders/Lions under 55.5
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Opening Line: Eagles -6 / Total: 44.5
- Current Line: Eagles -6 / Total: 43.5
- Smoove Line: Eagles -6.46 / Total: 28.17
Give a lot of credit to the Rams for overcoming a massive distraction of the wildfires and disrupting their regular routine in preparation leading up to their wildcard game against the Vikings and having their game moved from Los Angeles to Arizona but their offense has struggled to score more than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games excluding the last game of the regular season when they choose to rest a lot of their starters and will now face this Eagles defense. This total opened at 44.5 and the public is all over the over with 71% of the tickets but just 66% of the money and this total has moved from 44.5 to 43.5 indicating sharp reverse line movement on the under and my model has this total going way under at 28.17. Also keep in mind that this is one of two games this weekend that will strongly be impacted by weather as there’s a 70% chance of snow.
Best Bet: Rams/Eagles under 43.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Billss
- Opening Line: Bills -1.5 / Total: 52.5
- Current Line: Ravens -1.5 / Total: 51.5
- Smoove Line: Ravens -3.60 / Total: 35.14
This will be the game of the weekend as we have the top two MVP favorites battling it out for a spot in the AFC Championship game between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. This is also a rematch of the regular season matchup where the Ravens won by 25 points as 2.5 point favorites and over the last decade when there’s a regular season matchup in the playoffs it favors the winner in the regular season as that team is 42-24 SU (64%) and 35-29-2 ATS. Also the team that won by 20+ points and there’s a rematch in the playoffs, that team is 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS. Lamar Jackson has been a cash cow in the role as a favorite of less than 3 points or an underdog as he’s 26-9 ATS in the regular season and playoffs including opening as an underdog and closing as a favorite he’s 6-0 SU and ATS in those games covering the spread by 9.1 PPG. This line opened Bills -1.5 with 56% of the tickets and 57% of the money backing Buffalo but the line has flipped from Bills -1.5 to Ravens -1.5 indicating respected money backing Baltimore. My model made Ravens -3.60 so even with getting the worst of the number backing Baltimore, I think there’s value in backing the respected money with the Ravens and a smarter play on the money line.
Best Bet: Ravens ML -118
Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)
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