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TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGE
(WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Seahawks -17.3 at 49ers
Bills -12.3 vs Dolphins
Chargers -10 at Jaguars
Seattle Seahawks -17.3 at San Francisco 49ers
Seattle has the biggest disadvantage at run blocking this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks the Seahawks offensive line 22nd out of the 32 at run blocking, ESPN's run block win rate rankings has Seattle 24th, but Pro Football Focus grades the Seahawks the highest at 17th out of 32 teams. Guard Damien Lewis is Seattle's best run blocker, grading 19th out of 77 other guards. The other four Seahawk offensive linemen grade below average at run blocking.
San Francisco is this week's highest ranked run stopping defense. Football Outsiders ranks the 49ers run defense #1 overall, Pro Football Focus grades San Francisco the fourth best run defense, and ESPN's run stop win rate metric ranks the 49ers sixth. Edge rusher Nick Bosa is graded seventh out of 118 edge rushers by PFF, followed by linebacker Fred Warner who graded fifth out of 85 LBs at run defense. Two other 49ers grade above average at run defense per PFF. ESPN's run stop win rate doesn't have a single 49er on its lists.
Buffalo Bills -12.3 vs Miami Dolphins
Buffalo ranks slightly below average at run blocking this week. With a grade of 28th, Pro Football Focus grades the Bills offensive line the lowest at run blocking, followed by ESPN who ranks Buffalo's run block win rate 22nd out of 32, but Football Outsiders has a lot of faith in Buffalo's offensive line ranking them fourth overall at run blocking. ESPN doesn't have a Bill on any of their RBWR rankings. PFF grades all five Bills offensive linemen below average at run blocking.
Miami has the second best run defensive average this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks the Dolphins run defense fourth out of the 32 teams, Pro Football Focus grades Miami fifth, and ESPN's run stop win rate ranks the Dolphins eighth. Six of the Dolphins front seven rank above average at run defense. Led by defensive tackles Zach Sieler and Christian Wilkins who grade fourth and second out of 139 players at their position at stopping the run. Wilkins is also ESPN's #1 run stop win rate defensive tackle this week.
Los Angeles Chargers -10 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Chargers run blocking 32nd PFF, 12th FO, 28th ESPN
Jaguars run defense 11th PFF, 12th FO, 19th ESPN
TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES
(BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Ravens +11.3 at Bengals
Cowboys +11 at Buccaneers
Baltimore Ravens +11.3 at Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimorehas the highest run blocking average this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. ESPN's run block win rate metric ranks the Ravens #1, while Pro Football Focus isn't far behind grading Baltimore second out of the 32 NFL teams, but Football Outsiders ranks the Ravens below average with a rank of 19. ESPN has four of Baltimore's five offensive linemen on their RBWR rankings at each position. Tackles Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses rank seventh and eighth overall, guard Ben Powers ranks second, and center Tyler Linderbaum is the #1 overall run blocker at his position. PFF grades only three of the five Raven's offensive linemen above average at run blocking. Center Tyler Linderbaum is the fourth highest graded run blocker at his position, tackle Morgan Moses is seventh out of 77, and guard Kevin Zeitler is 17th out of 77 at run blocking.
The Bengals run defense is gonna have their hands full this week. Cincinnati has one of the worst run defensive averages this week. ESPN's run stop win rate ranking has the Bengals 30th overall, followed by Pro Football Focus who grades Cincinnati 19th, but Football Outsiders ranks the Bengals high at seventh overall. Edge rusher Sam Hubbard anchors this Cincinnati run defense according to PFF. Hubbard grades as the 13th best run defender at his position. PFF also grades defensive tackle D.J. Reader 17th out of 139. PFF grades three other Cincinnati front seven defenders just average at run defense. ESPN's run stop win rate ranking ranks edge rusher Sam Hubbard the fifth best run stopper at his position.
Dallas Cowboys +11 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Cowboys have the second best run blocking average this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Pro Football Focus grades the Cowboys the lowest at 11th out of the 32 teams. ESPN's run block win rate ranking has Dallas seventh and Football Outsiders ranks the Cowboys the highest, fifth overall. Center Tyler Bladasz ranks eight at ESPN's run block win rate ranking at his position. PFF grades two of the Cowboys five offensive linemen above average at run blocking while the other three grade average to below average.
Tampa Bay ranks as a slightly below average run defense according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Pro Football Focus grades the Buccaneers the lowest at run defense, 23rd out of 32. Both ESPN and Football Outsiders rank Tampa Bay pretty similar at 16th and 17th. Pro Football Focus grades only two of the Buccaneers front seven above average at run defense. Defensive tackle Akiem Hicks (36th out of 139) and linebacker Lavonte David (26th out of 85) are those two players. The other five defenders on Tampa Bay's front seven grade average to below average at run defense. Edge rusher Anthony Nelson has been making big plays for the Buccaneers these past couple weeks and he is ranked 10th on ESPN's run stop win rate ranking this week at his position.
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
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