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TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGE
(WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Texans -19.3 at Titans
Chargers -16.3 at Colts
Broncos -13 at Rams
Packers -12 at Dolphins
Patriots -10 vs Bengals
Houston Texan -19.3 at Tennessee Titans
The Texans once again are one of the worst ranked run blocking teams this week. According to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet Houston's run blocking average is 23.7. Football Outsiders is the highest on the Texans offensive line run blocking rank at 13th, but both ESPN's run block win rate rank and Pro Football Focus grade has Houston 29th overall. PFF grades Laremy Tunsil 29 out of 75 tackles, which makes him the highest graded Texan offensive linemen. The rest of the Texans offensive linemen grade average to below average. ESPN doesn't have a single Texan in the top 10 of their RBWR at any of the three positions.
Tennessee enters this contest as the third best run stop defense this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks the Titans the lowest at eight. While Pro Football Focus grades Tennessee the fourth best run stop defense. ESPN's ranks the Titans #1 with their run stop win rate metric. PFF grades edge rusher Denico Autry 20th and defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons 13th at run defense. ESPN's RSWR top 10 for defensive tackle has two Titans on their list. Jeffery Simmons is ranked fifth and Teair Tart is ranked seventh.
Los Angeles Chargers -16.3 at Indianapolis Colts
The Chargers run block average is the third worst this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders are the highest on Los Angeles run blocking game at 18 overall, but once again ESPN and Pro Football Focus rank the Chargers lower. ESPN ranks Los Angeles 31st at their run block win rate metric and PFF grades the Chargers the worst run blocking unit in the NFL, dead last at 32. There isn't a single Charger on ESPN's run block win rate top 10 at any of the three positions. PFF grades guard Zion Johnson the 16th best run blocking guard but, the rest of Johnson's teammates all grade below average at run blocking.
What is the mentality of this Colts defense after shutting out one of the best offenses on the road for a half last week, then blowing the biggest lead in NFL history? Football Outsiders has a lot of faith in this defense, rankings Indianapolis the second best run stop defense. ESPN ranks the Colts fifth with their run stop win rate metric. Pro Football Focus grades the Colts run defense 10th best. PFF grades five of the Colts front seven 22nd or better at their position with edge rushers Kwity Paye the highest 11th out of 118. ESPN's run stop win rate rankings for defensive tackle has Grover Stewart ninth overall.
Denver Broncos -13 at Los Angeles Rams
Broncos run blocking 19th PFF, 20th FO, 6th ESPN
Rams run defense 1st PFF, 3rd FO, 2nd ESPN
Green Bay Packers -12 at Miami Dolphins
Packers run blocking 21st PFF, 19th FO, 12th ESPN
Dolphins run defense 5th PFF, 4th FO, 7th ESPN
New England Patriots -10 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Patriots run blocking 23rd PFF, 28th FO, 32nd ESPN
Bengals run defense 17th PFF, 7th FO, 29th ESPN
TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES
(BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Eagles +19.3 at Cowboys
Ravens +15 vs Falcons
Titans +12.3 vs Texans
Cowboys +12 vs Eagles
Browns +10 vs Saints
Philadelphia Eagles +19.3 at Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles have the second best run block average this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet at 5.0. ESPN ranks the Eagles the highest at second overall using their run block win rate metric. While Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles the lowest seventh. Pro Football Focus grades Philadelphia's run blocking sixth. Just like last week the Eagles have three players in the top 10 at each position for ESPN's run block win rate ranking. Guard Landon Dickinson and center Jason Kelce are both #1 at their position, while tackle Jordan Mailata is ranked third. PFF grades every Eagle's offensive linemen above average at run blocking with Landon Dickinson grading the lowest at 38th out of 82 guards and Jason Kelce grading the highest as the second best run blocking center out of 35.
Dallas run stop defense and pass rush defense is night and day. Dallas has struggled to stop the run. Both ESPN run stop win rate ranking and Football Outsiders ranks the Cowboys 25th, while Pro Football Focus is a little higher on the Cowboy's front seven run stoppers at 23rd. PFF grades Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence the highest at stopping the run at 23 and 32 out of 118 edge rushers but the rest of the Cowboys front seven is graded average to below average. ESPN has edge rusher Demarcus Lawrence ranked second at run stop win rate.
Baltimore Ravens +15 vs Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore's identity is no secret, they want to run the ball. ESPN and Pro Football Focus rank the Raven's run blocking first and second respectively. Football Outsiders on the other hand rank Baltimore 17th. ESPN run block win rate ranking has a Raven's offensive linemen in the top 10 at each position. Guard Ben Powers and Center Tyler Linderbaum both rank second at their respective positions, while both tackles Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses rank fifth and seventh. PFF grade ranking is a bit more harsh. Grading Tyler Linderbaum the fifth best center, Morgan Moses the seventh best tackle, and Kevin Zeitler the 17th best guard at run blocking. Tackle Ronnie Stanley and guard Ben Powers grade below average at run blocking per PFF.
Atlanta has been one of the worst run stopping defenses this season. ESPN's run stop win rate and Football Outsiders rank the Falcons run stop defense 26th. Pro Football Focus grades Atlanta higher at 13th. PFF has four of the Falcons front seven defenders hovering around an average grade at run stop defense lead by linebacker Rashaan Evans who grades the highest 34 out of 82. ESPN doesn't have any Falcons in the top 10 of their RSWR rankings.
Tennessee Titans +12.3 vs Houston Texans
Titans run blocking 12th PFF, 13th FO, 14th ESPN
Texans run defense 31st PFF, 29th FO, 16th ESPN
Dallas Cowboys +12 vs Philadelphia Eagles
Cowboys run blocking 10th PFF, 3rd FO, 4th ESPN
Eagles run defense 12th PFF, 23rd FO, 18th ESPN
Cleveland Browns +10 vs New Orleans Saints
Browns run blocking 7th PFF, 11th FO, 13th ESPN
Saints run defense 21st PFF, 13th FO, 27th ESPN
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
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