Our NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! Get full access to our best bets, given out early in the week, in real time: sides, totals, player props, and more, all in one place, through the end of the Super Bowl.
TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGE
(WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Chargers -23.7 vs Titans
Bills -16.3 vs Dolphins
Patriots -10.7 at Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers -23.7 vs Tennessee Titans
All season long Los Angeles has been near or at the bottom of run blocking. The Chargers run blocking rank averages third worst according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks Los Angeles 20th, ESPN's run block win rate rank is 31st, and PFF grades the Chargers the worst run blocking team this week at 32nd. Guard Zion Johnson run blocking grade is the highest on the team at 21 out of 80 guards. The rest of the team are all below average run blocking offensive linemen. ESPN doesn't have a single Charger offensive linemen in their run block win rate rankings.
The Titans rank second at stopping the run according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. ESPN ranks Tennessee #1 at their run stop win rate metric. Pro Football Focus grades Tennessee the third best run stop defense, and Football Outsiders is the lowest on the Titans ranking them eighth. Defensive tackle Teair Tart ranks sixth at ESPN's run stop win rate ranking. PFF also ranks Tart above average at run defense with a grade of 21, but PFF also grades defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons 11th, and edge rusher Mario Edwards Jr ninth as run stoppers.
Buffalo Bills -16.3 vs Miami Dolphins
Buffalo enters this week with a below average run blocking offensive line. Although Football Outsiders ranks the Bill's run blocking ninth, both ESPN and Pro Football Focus rank this unit way lower. ESPN's run block win rate ranks the Bills 27th and Pro Football Focus grades them the lowest at 29. Every starter for Buffalo grades below average at run blocking by Pro Football Focus, while ESPN doesn't have a single Buffalo offensive lineman in any of their RBWR rankings.
The Dolphins run stop defense has the third best average this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Football Outsiders ranks Miami the highest at four, Pro Football Focus grades the Dolphins fifth, while ESPN ranks this front seven seventh at run stop win rate. The Dolphins have three players in the top 10 of ESPN's RSWR starting with edge rushers Jaelan Phillips at six and Bradley Chubb at nine. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins ranks second. PFF has every Dolphin player in their front seven graded above average with Phillips and Wilkins leading the way with a grading of 11th and sixth at run defense.
New England Patriots -10.7 at Las Vegas Raiders
Patriots run blocking 25th PFF, 28th FO, 32nd ESPN
Raiders run defense 17th PFF, 16th FO, 20th ESPN
TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES
(BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS)
Eagles +18.3 at Bears
Ravens +17 at Browns
Commanders +14 vs Giants
Bears +12.7 vs Eagles
Chiefs +12 at Texans
Titans +10.7 at Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles +18.3 at Chicago Bears
This week's #1 run blocking team is the Philadelphia Eagles according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Both Pro Football Focus and ESPN's run block win rate ranking has the Eagles second overall and Football Outsiders ranks Philadelphia's run blocking seventh. The Eagles have three offensive linemen ranked in the top 10 at each offensive linemen positions per ESPN's run block win rate metric. Tackle Jordan Mailata is ranked third, Landon Dickinson is the #1 ranked Guard, and Jason Kelce is second at the center position. PFF grades every Eagles offensive linemen above average at run blocking. Guard Landon Dickinson grades the lowest at 27 out of 80, while center Jason Kelce grades as the second best center at run blocking.
The Bear rankings are all over the place this week. ESPN's run stop win rate ranking has Chicago the highest at 10, while Pro Football Focus has the Bears run defense graded dead last at 32. Football Outsiders ranks the Bears 24th. PFF grades all of the Bears front seven below average, while ESPN's run stop win rate doesn't have a single Bear player in the top 10 at either position.
Baltimore Ravens +17 at Cleveland Browns
Baltimore has one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the league. ESPN's run block win rate ranking has the Ravens #1, while Pro Football Focus grades Baltimore sixth, but Football Outsiders ranks the Ravens an average 15th. PFF grades three of Baltimore's offensive linemen 20th or better at run blocking. Both tackle Morgan Moses and guard Kevin Zeitler are graded 20th and Tyler Linderbaum is graded the sixth best run blocking center. The Ravens have three players at each position ranked in the top 10 of ESPN's run block win rate. Backup tackle Patrick Mekari is ranked fourth, guard Ben Powers is second, and center Tyler Linderbaum is ranked third RBWR.
Cleveland front seven is night and day when it comes to pass rush and run stop defense. Pass rush is the strength of this defense, but when it comes to stopping the run, Cleveland has struggled. Our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet has the Browns as a below average run stopping unit. Football Outsider ranks the Brown the lowest at 30, ESPN's run stop win rate ranks Cleveland the highest at 14, but Pro Football Focus grades the Browns run stopping defense a low 29th. ESPN, who is the highest on the Browns run stop defense doesn't have a single player in the top 10 of either position. While PFF has edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney graded the highest at run defense, 26th out of 118. Every other Brown is either average or below average.
Washington Commanders +14 vs New York Giants
Commanders run blocking 16th PFF, 4th FO, 14th ESPN
Giants run defense 27th PFF, 21st FO, 28th ESPN
Chicago Bears +12.7 vs Philadelphia Eagles
Bears run blocking 3rd PFF, 5th FO, 4th ESPN
Eagles run defense 11th PFF, 23rd FO, 16th ESPN
Kansas City Chiefs +12 at Houston Texans
Chiefs run blocking 5th PFF, 31st FO, 3rd ESPN
Texans run defense 31st PFF, 29th FO, 15th ESPN
Tennessee Titans +10.7 at Los Angeles Chargers
Titans run blocking 12th PFF, 14th FO, 11th ESPN
Chargers run defense 30th PFF, 18th FO, 21st ESPN
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
Want to have direct access to our network of Betting Predators handicappers? Sign up for our FREE Discord channel to get 24/7 direct access to our handicapping team, as well as our community of sharp bettors
Want an easy to find all of our Betting Predators content in one place? Sign up for our free newsletter, Substack and receive a weekly roundup on everything we've published (FREE + PREMIUM), and all that we're up to throughout the week. We promise we'll never give your email address out for advertising purposes.