NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Biggest OL/DL Pass Blocking Mismatches (Week 7)

This Commanders offensive line is built to run block, not pass block. On the right side of the line, tackle Cornelius Lucas and guard Saahdiq Charles rank below average in pass blocking, according to Pro Football Focus, while the Packers pass rush enters Week 7 ranking top 10 in both PFF pass rush (#9) and DVOA pass rush (#4). Green Bay's pass rush advantage should be able to get after Taylor Heinicke early and often here, especially against a Washington OL ranking 30th of 32 teams in both DVOA pass blocking and ESPN's Run Block Win Rate. Fire up Green Bay in both season-long fantasy lineups and DFS lineups here.

New York Jets -15.7 vs. Denver Broncos 

The Broncos defense is allowing the fourth least amount of points scored this season, and when playing in Denver, the Broncos are allowing just 10.3 points per game to their opponents. Bradley Chubb and Baron Browning both grade top 10 in pass rushing, per Pro Football Focus, while six of Denver's front seven grade top 30 as well. Only one Jets offensive lineman, center Conner McGovern, grades even above average in his PFF pass blocking grade. New York ranks 29th in PFF pass blocking grade, although they've done a good job of hiding that with such a low pass rate since Zach Wilson took over under center a few weeks ago. Russell Wilson has already been ruled out for Sunday's contest, which sets us up for a potential slow-paced, ugly offensive slog in Week 7. The Jets don't want to throw more than a few times per game, and with zero offensive resistance from Denver, this could be a game where a defensive or special teams score could determine the outcome. Both D/ST's are in play for fantasy, and the only standalone player showing any value in our fantasy rankings/player projections is Breece Hall.

Cleveland Browns +14 > Baltimore Ravens 

Cleveland's offensive line has done a good job protecting Jacoby Brissett, who enters Week 7 as one of the least hurried and knocked down quarterbacks in the league. Brissett has only been sacked nine times this season through six games. Hjalte Froholdt looks to get the start at right guard for Cleveland this week in place of Wyatt Teller, who left last week's game against the Patriots with a calf injury and has been ruled out for this weekend. Despite losing Teller - Froholdt actually brings a better skill at run blocking than pass blocking - the other four starting offensive linemen all grade above average in pass blocking for the Browns, who as a team rank #1 in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate on the year and #2 in PFF pass blocking grade. The Ravens hold a similar pass-blocking edge in this matchup as well, although a lot that hinges on the health of both Myles Garrett and Jadaveon Clowney, whom we also highlighted in our top run blocking mismatches column. If the Browns struggle to run the ball or fall behind early, Brissett should at least be protected well and have ample time in the pocket to find his weapons down the field in Amari Cooper, David Njoku and Donovan Peoples-Jones. It could be worth looking at Cooper overs specifically here, especially given his dominant fantasy usage and weekly air yards opportunity over the past month.

New England Patriots +12.7 vs Chicago Bears 

Every player on the Bears' front seven grades below average at pass rushing per Pro Football Focus, and New England quarterbacks as a whole have been sacked only 11 times this season through six total games. New England's offensive line grades better at run blocking than pass blocking, but it also has three linemen that grade above average at pass blocking too, including the number one graded pass blocking guard in Michael Onwenu. Both Michael Onwenu and Isaiah Wynn have been limited all week at practice, but neither seems in danger to miss Monday Night Football as of now. The Patriots might need to throw the ball much in this game, but if they do, Mac Jones should be in a comfy cozy spot in his first game back from a multi-week ankle injury absence. The Bears rank dead last (32nd) in PFF pass rush grade compared to NE ranking top 5 in that same metric. Looking at team sack props under for Chicago could be a nice way to attack this mismatch here in the betting market, especially given a low projected pass rate for NE.