By Mike D'Angelo
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DISCLAIMER: Some lines may change from the time of podcast recording and publishing of this written recap before Sunday. Also, please know that that these are not official plays. I only give a very simplified version of Chris Dell and Sleepy's handicaps here below, simply because there will be stuff you may miss if you don't listen to the podcast and because we only have so much time to digest this in written form.
Be sure to listen to the Betting Predators' weekly Player Props "Money Picks" podcast every Friday and also read Chris Dell's NFL Player Props column (released Sunday morning on the website) for his official plays. In order to listen to the full audio version of this podcast, scroll to the bottom of this page or listen to it in its entirely here on Spotify. You can also subscribe to our free blog by scrolling below and entering your email address in order to receive an email alert every time we publish a new article on the website.
WAS vs GB (-7.5) - O/U 48.5
Sleepy J Likes Aaron Rodgers Ov 255 Pass Yards
Analysis:
Washington has worst pass defence in the league
Green bay if in a game script where they need to throw will torch Washington
Do not see a blow up here
Aware it is square
Chris Likes Ricky Seals-Jones Ov 40.5 Rec Yards + Ov Receptions + JD McKissic Props
Analysis:
Rec hit first half, Yards hit beginning of third quarter
GB allows production to tight ends
Ran routes on 93% of drop backs
Notes: Chris agrees with Sleepys pick on Rodgers. Game script should not get very out of hand.
NE vs NYJ (-6.5) - O/U 43
Sleepy J Likes Damien Harris Ov 64.5 Rush Yards
Analysis:
Patriots could end up getting margin
Could end up killing clock and handing off ball
Jets have not done well against pats
Jets have average rush defence
Projecting 16-18 touches
Notes: Chris leans Agholor unders this week. Chris also leans to take the dog in this spot. Targeting unders in this game overall.
CIN vs BAL (-6) - O/U 46.5
Sleepy Likes Mark Andrews Ov 59.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Going back to the well
5 or more catches in last 5
Has gone over this total in 4 straight
Lamar is getting Andrews involved
Chris Likes Joe Mixon Ov 56.5 Rush Yards
Analysis:
Mixon has had 67+ rush yards in every game minus GB this Season
Had 3 out of 5 at 90+ rush yards when he was healthy
Projected to hit low 70s
Notes: Sleepy agrees with Chris, not sure why the line is low on Mixon.
KC vs TEN (+4.5) - O/U 57.5
Sleepy Likes Darrell Williams TD
Analysis:
Total on this game is insane
Name value (not recognised)
Assuming more than one chance score in and around the goal line
Chris Likes Derrick Henry Un 149.5 Rush & Rec Yards
Analysis:
Line is inflated
Tennessee has a flat spot here
He is not really used as passer at all in TEN system in recent weeks
Coming off of a short week
Notes: Hardman is a great value price play at $4,300 on DK with his ceiling/potential
CAR vs NYG (+2.5) - O/U 43
Sleepy Likes Longest Field Goal for NYG
Analysis:
Giants are tied third in FG attempts
From 50+ yards kicker is 80%
Giants are not afraid to get kicker out there
Panthers are ⅓ from 50+ yards
Notes: Chris likes Sterling Shepard overs, but at the time of doing the podcast there are no numbers out. He also wants to target Robby Anderson in this spot. Sleepy was also mentioning Daniel Jones rushing prop but could not find a number anywhere.
ATL vs MIA (+2.5) - O/U 48
Sleepy Likes Tua Ov 252 pass yards + Touchdowns thrown Ov 1.5 + Completions Ov + Attempts Ov
Analysis:
Best game in last game
Does not have a lot to lose here
With them potentially trying to trade him, they need to showcase him
ATL pass defence is very poor
Tua also needs to show out for his own future
Chris Likes Tua Ov Pass Attempts
Analysis:
MIA is the most pass heavy team in the NFL even with Jacoby Brissett behind center for a while
Throwing at a 67% rate
Parker coming back, whom Tua likes in a target
6th best graded (PFF) passer in week 6
Rams (-15.5) vs DET - O/U 51
Sleepy Likes Stafford Ov 288 Pass Yards
Chris Likes Stafford Completions Ov 23.5 + Attempts + Ov 2.5 Touch Downs
Analysis:
Rams may run up the score here
Want to showcase their quarterback and show why they moved on from Goff
PHI vs LV (-3) - O/U 48.5
Sleepy Likes De’Vonte Smith Ov 57.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
Raiders pass defence is average
When Smith gets the ball they seem to do well in games
Hurts has not been throwing past the line of scrimmage as of late, Smith low aDOT
Notes: Chris likes Sanders under rushing and leans to Smith over receptions but no lines for the latter
HOU vs ARI (-17.5) - O/U 47.5
Sleepy Likes James Connor TD
Analysis:
A lot of points projected for ARI and no reason why they'd not be around end zone a lot here
It could take some pressure off of Kyler Murray
Chris Likes James Connor Ov Rush Yards + Ov Rush Attempts
Analysis:
Edmonds numbers have been trending downwards (injury)
Snaps down to 37%
Rush Att down to 11%
Routes down to 38%
Do not need to use him in a game where they are -17.5 point favorites
Notes: Look to buy low on Edmonds after this game. Also looking at Hopkins TD but juice is very high.
TB vs CHI (+11.5) - O/U 47
Chris Likes Justin Fields Un 227 Pass Yards
Analysis:
Subscriber pick
Line has moved drastically down since giving pick in Betting Predators subscriber discord
Young QB who has been struggling probably can not handle the pass rush/defensive line of TB
Notes: Mooney/Robinson are the only guys Chris would look at for DFS but does not like their overs