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Monday Night Football: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
The Total in the Bills/Jets game is too damn high! I know, I know - under bets are no fun and besides, how could we bet an under with two top 5 quarterbacks going at it? Moreover, how could anyone fade the Jets offense after watching their weekly feature on Hard Knocks, where Rodgers appears infallible? To that I say this - I don't know about you, but I find winning to be darn fun - and the weekly HBO infomercial for Jets football known as Hard Knocks, has hyped up this match-up and increased expectations for the Jets offense that seems unrealistic given the historical data.
Examining last year's statistics reveals a significant gap between the game's Total and team averages. The Bills averaged a Total of 44.6, while the Jets were even lower at 42.3. With the game Total currently set at 45.5, we're looking at an increase of over three points compared to the Jets' average total in home games last season. This begs the question: Is Aaron Rodgers worth those extra three points? The data suggests regardless if Rodgers will be worth those extra points to the Total by season's end - he likely will not be on day one of the regular season for the J.E.T.S. Jets, Jets, Jets.
Since 2016, these QBs have posted a 16-20-2 straight-up (SU) record and a 19-16-3 against-the-spread (ATS) record in Week 1. However, when we look at the specific spot the Jets and Aaron Rodgers are in, the numbers take a decisive turn. Veteran QBs on a team that also brought in a new play-caller - as the Jets did with OC Nathaniel Hackett - have a dismal 2-11 SU and 3-11 ATS record in Week 1. Furthermore, these teams average just 19 points in those matchups.
While it's true that Rodgers is reuniting with Hackett, his former Green Bay Offensive Coordinator, there are ten other players on the field who need to adjust to the new play-calling. Although Rodgers has familiar faces like Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, they are only two players - and in Cobb's case not likely to play even 50% of the snaps.
Another reason to look Under for this game is that it has been profitable to simply bet Unders in Week 1 games. Since 1989, the Under has hit 53.4% of the time. That means Week 1 Under bettors have been profitable over 34 years and over a 500-game sample size. This pattern has remained remarkably consistent over the years and in the modern era, defined as 2012 - present (acknowledging the seismic shifts to the NFL landscape after the 2011 reworked CBA). Since 2012, Week 1 games have gone Under 53.6% of games (O/U record of 81-90-5).
Finally, do not let the Super Bowl fool you; the bright lights in recent years in the NFL have been cagey lower-scoring affairs in the regular season. Last season, 40 out of 64 primetime games went Under the total. Since 2018, Unders have hit in 58% of regular-season primetime games (113-153-9).
And it's not just in recent years either. Remarkably, if we look at all primetime games - in any week - since 2001 (as far as our data goes back for this feature), primetime NFL games have gone Under 53.6% of the time.
Since 2012, nearly 60% of Week 1 primetime games have gone Under.
Moreover, recent history between the Bills and the Jets strengthens the case for the Under. In 6 of the 8 games since Josh Allen became the Bills' starter in 2019, the Under has hit. Additionally, key player matchups should also temper expectations for a high-scoring affair. Bills rookie Guard, O'Cyrus Torrence will have to face off against the Jets DT Quinnen Williams, who has dominated this matchup against Buffalo in recent seasons, especially in their two games last year. Additionally, Buffalo wideout Stefon Diggs faces a tough matchup against CB Sauce Gardner, who limited him to just eight catches on 21 targets last year over two games.
A Quick Note on the Spread
If you're leaning towards a side bet, consider the Bills at -2.5. They won 13 games last season and were the highest Vegas power-rated team in the NFL at the end of the regular season. With virtually the same roster and a healthier Josh Allen, laying 2.5 points against a transitioning Jets team could offer added value.
A lot of my preference for the Bills here comes down to simply power ratings. I think the fact the Bills' Win Total at O/U ~10.8 is almost a full game lower than last year's does not make much sense, especially since the Bills easily exceeded their win total last year, winning 13 games despite only playing a 16-game schedule due to the Damar Hamlin injury that forced the league to cancel the Bengals/Bills game in Week 17. The Bills walked into Cincinnati that night as 2.5-point road favorites.
With a healthier Josh Allen and an unchanged roster, should the Bills really be favored by the same amount against the Jets, especially in a division game where home-field advantage matters less? Do I think the Jets this year are anywhere near as good as last year's Bengals? No, I don't. Hence, I like the Bills here (1*), along with the Under (2*) for the game.
Several factors make betting the Under in this Week 1 matchup appealing. Considering the track record of veteran QBs on new teams, the propensity for Week 1 games to score low, and the consistent history of primetime games going Under—particularly in Week 1—along with key player matchups that favor each defense, the Under 45.5 stands out as a solid bet. If you're seeking additional value, consider leaning toward the Bills at -2.5.
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