By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.
If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:
Overall Top BUYS
The asterisks listed below signal how many times a golfer has qualified as a “buy” in our two main statistics of ‘strokes gained approach’ and ‘strokes gained off the tee’; For this list we are using data from the past 4 tracked PGA Tour events with shot link/strokes gained data, which include the RBC Heritage, The Masters, the Valero Texas Open and the Valspar Championship:
***Woodland
**Na
**Kirk
RBC Heritage “Light Buys”
These golfers below qualified as a buy in one of either “strokes gained approach” or “strokes gained off the tee” at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago, while they also did not a qualify as a fade in either of those two stat categories. They could be worth betting on to start the week in markets such as first round leader, first round matchups, novelty props and DFS lineups etc:
*Pan
*N. Taylor
*Poston
Overall “Light Buys”
These golfers below qualified as a buy in one of either “strokes gained approach” or “strokes gained off the tee” over the past 4 PGA Tour events, while they also did not a qualify as a fade in either of those two stat categories. They could be worth betting on to start the week in markets such as first round leader, first round matchups, novelty props and DFS lineups etc:
*Finau
*Theegala
*Streb
*Smotherman
*Bramlett
*Gutschewski
Overall Top FADES
The asterisks listed below signal how many times a golfer has qualified as a “fade” in our two main statistics of ‘strokes gained approach’ and ‘strokes gained off the tee’; For this list we are using data from the past 4 tracked PGA Tour events with shot link/strokes gained data, which include the RBC Heritage, The Masters, the Valero Texas Open and the Valspar Championship:
*****Trainer
***Kang
**Byrd
**Hagy
**Reavie
**Jaeger
**Bryan
**Pat Perez
**Tway
**Blixt
**Lower
**Kohles
**Lebioda
**Kraft
**McDowell
RBC Heritage “Light Fades”
These golfers below qualified as a fade in one of either “strokes gained approach” or “strokes gained off the tee” at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago, while they also did not a qualify as a buy in either of those two stat categories. They could be worth fading/betting against if lined up against one of our top buy golfers, but mostly they are stay aways for me to start the week:
*Kodaira
*Ortiz
*Schenk
*B. Martin
*Lahiri
Overall “Light Fades”
These golfers below qualified as a fade in one of either “strokes gained approach” or “strokes gained off the tee” over the past 4 PGA Tour events, while they also did not a qualify as a buy in either of those two stat categories. They could be worth betting against/fading to start the week in markets such as first round leader, first round matchups, novelty props and DFS etc:
*Ancer
*Wallace
*Gligic
*Garnett
*T. Moore
*Noh
*Lipsky
*Clark
*Duncan
*Cook
*Smalley
*Tarren
*Whaley
*Hodges
*D. Wu
*Hickok
*Gainey
*Kitayama
Overall “Mixed/Light Fades”
These golfers have qualified as a fade at least twice over the past four PGA Tour events (stroke play format) but have also qualified as a buy in at least one stat category as well; when weighted, they still have more “fade” qualities than “buy” qualities, so we will try to stay away from both betting against them and betting on them given these mixed metrics. They are mostly stay away’s for me, although they are still worth monitoring after Round 1 to see if any could be worth backing live:
*Stuard
*Lashley
*L. Griffin
*D. Riley
*Putnam
Overall “Neutral” Buys/Fades
These golfers below qualified as a fade in one of either “strokes gained approach” or “strokes gained off the tee” over the past 4 PGA Tour events, and they also qualified as a buy in one of those two stat categories. They could be worth backing or fading as the week progresses depending on new strokes gained/shot link data (if available) and live betting market opportunities:
Svensson
Stallings
Champ
Werenski
Donald
Howell
Ramey
Mullinax
Reeves
Hahn
RBC Heritage BUYS
— (APP)
Stallings +1.53
Stuard +1.42
Svensson +1.29
Na +1.05
Pan +1.02
N. Taylor +0.94
Kirk +1.05
— (OTT)
Kirk +1.50
Poston +1.05
Werenski +0.95
RBC Heritage FADES
— (APP)
D. Riley -3.72
Trainer -3.41
Kodaira -3.31
Putnam -2.30
Byrd -2.12
Hagy -2.12
Ortiz -1.64
Werenski -1.36
Schenk -1.32
Donald -1.26
Reavie -1.23
Howell -1.20
Lashley -1.19
B. Martin -1.14
Jaeger -1.07
Lahiri -0.99
— (OTT)
Stallings -1.50
Byrd -1.45
Pat Perez -1.32
Trainer -1.27
D. Riley -1.13
Stuard -1.08
Jaeger -1.07
Bryan -1.06
Lashley -1.01
Tway -0.97
The Masters BUYS
— (APP)
Na +2.36
— (OTT)
Woodland +1.19
The Masters FADES
— (APP)
Ancer -1.37
Valero Texas Open
— (APP)
Woodland +1.53
Lashley +1.52
L. Griffin +1.44
Streb +1.35
Ramey +1.17
Bramlett +1.13
Finau +0.98
Gutschewski +0.96
— (OTT)
Champ +1.49
Howell +1.45
Mullinax +1.19
Reeves +1.15
Valero Texas Open FADES
— (APP)
Wallace -3.26
Gligic -2.96
Kang -2.79
Reeves -2.43
Hagy -2.37
Blixt -1.66
Lower -1.66
Kohles -1.58
Tway -1.45
Lebioda -1.42
Reavie -1.39
Garnett -1.36
Trainer -1.33
Kraft -1.17
T. Moore -1.11
Svensson -1.08
Noh -1.06
Champ -1.05
McDowell -0.97
— (OTT)
Kraft -2.01
Kohles -1.60
Lipsky -1.45
Stuard -1.20
Lebioda -1.19
Lower -1.15
Clark -1.00
Duncan -1.00
Valspar BUYS
— (APP)
Donald +1.54
Smotherman +1.25
Woodland +1.12
— (OTT)
Hahn +1.20
D. Riley +1.07
Theegala +0.99
Putnam +0.96
Valspar FADES
— (APP)
Blixt -3.30
Putnam -2.56
Cook -2.51
Trainer -2.48
Smalley -2.27
Tarren -1.95
Mullinax -1.69
Whaley -1.66
Hahn -1.66
L. Griffin -1.41
McDowell -1.32
Hodges -1.24
D. Wu -1.13
Pat Perez -1.11
Hickok -1.07
Ramey -1.01
Kang -0.94
— (OTT)
Trainer -1.99
Gainey -1.58
Blixt -1.34
L. Griffin -1.25
Kang -1.06
Kitayama -1.03
Bryan -0.93
Tournament Finish Props (0.25 Units Each):
Woodland T10 @ Bet365 +240
Woodland T20 @ Bet365 +120
Na T20 @ Bet365 +130
Kirk T20 @ Bet365 +163
= 1 Unit
Nationality/Novelty Finish Props
(0.20) Finau Top USA @ Bet365 12:1
(0.15) Na Top USA @ Bet365 14:1
(0.15) Woodland Top USA @ Bet365 14:1
(0.10) Kirk Top USA @ Bet365 20:1
(0.05) Theegala Top USA @ Bet365 40:1
(0.05) Poston Top USA @ Bet365 50:1
(0.05) Smotherman Top USA @ Bet365 70:1
(0.05) Streb Top USA @ Bet365 90:1
(0.05) Bramlett Top USA @ Bet365 90:1
(0.05) Gutschewski Top USA @ Bet365 200:1
(0.05) Pan “Winner Without Rahm” @ Bet365 50:1
(0.05) N. Taylor “Winner Without Rahm” @ Bet365 100:1
= 1 Unit
Outright Winner Bets:
(0.15) Woodland @ CZ 25:1
(0.15) Na @ BR 28:1
(0.15) Kirk @ DK 35:1
—
(0.05) Pan @ Bet365 70:1
(0.05) N. Taylor @ CZ 125:1
(0.05) Poston @ DK 130:1
—
(0.15) Finau @ DK 25:1
(0.05) Theegala @ DK 80:1
(0.05) Smotherman @ CZ 125:1
(0.05) Streb @ Bet365 150:1
(0.05) Bramlett @ DK 200:1
(0.05) Gutschewski @ Bet365 350:1
= 1 Unit
First Round Leader Bets:
(0.15) Woodland @ Bet365 40:1
(0.15) Na @ Bet365 40:1
(0.10) Kirk @ Bet365 50:1
—
(0.10) Pan @ MB 70:1
(0.05) N. Taylor @ Bet365 90:1
(0.05) Poston @ DK 90:1
—
(0.10) Finau @ DK 40:1
(0.10) Theegala @ DK 75:1
(0.05) Smotherman @ Bet365 90:1
(0.05) Streb @ MB 110:1
(0.05) Bramlett @ DK 110:1
(0.05) Gutschewski @ Bet365 170:1
= 1 Unit
Full Pre-Tournament Betting Card Breakdown:
- 4 Tournament Finish Bets = 1 Unit
- 12 Nationality/Novelty Finish Props = 1 Unit
- 12 Outright Winner Bets = 1 Unit
- 12 First Round Leader Bets = 1 Unit
Total = 4 Units
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BR = BetRivers
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com