By Greg Frank
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It’s no secret - it pays to have players and coaches that have been through the gauntlet that is the NCAA Tournament. Because of this, we've decided to take a look at each program’s overall "experience." Our parameters for defining experience includes having upperclassmen as 'rotational players,' making at least one of the previous two NCAA Tournaments, and head coach’s track record of tournament berths. For this article, we’ve defined a rotational player as someone who sees at least 10 minutes per game.
#8 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Five
Recent Tournament History: Did not qualify in 2019. Made Final Four in 2018.
Coaching Background: While he has coached at Loyola-Chicago for a decade, Porter Moser did not get a taste of the NCAA Tournament until 2018. Boy, did he arrive with a bang. The Ramblers went all the way to Final Four as an #11 seed, and they’re back this year with what almost anyone would agree as the most under-seeded team in the field. Loyola-Chicago is now -6.5 point favorites to get past Oregon State in the Sweet 16, which would give Moser & company another chance to play in the Final Four on Monday.
What it means moving forward: Did you watch the Loyola-Chicago game last Sunday against Illinois? It was a clinical performance from a Ramblers team that dominated the Missouri Valley Conference all year long. They have a coach that has been there and plenty of upperclassmen in their starting lineup. This team can absolutely get back to the Final Four, and are sitting at +160 to win the Midwest Region.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+160); To win the title (+1300)
Sweet 16 Odds: Loyola-Chicago (-6.5, -305 ML) vs. Oregon State; O/U 125.5
How To Watch: Saturday, 2:40 p.m. EST on CBS (@ Bankers Life Fieldhouse)
#12 Oregon State Beavers
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Six
Recent Tournament History: This is the first trip to the Big Dance for the Beavers since 2016.
Coaching Background: That trip to the NCAA Tournament five years ago was also Wayne Tinkle’s only other trip to March Madness with the Oregon State Beavers. He did make three NCAA Tournaments in the Big Sky conference with Montana prior to getting his new job in the Pac 12. The two wins he picked up last weekend, however, were his first two NCAA Tournament victories as a head coach.
What it means moving forward: I’m not really sure. First off, don’t forget that this Oregon State team wasn’t going to make the tournament had it not won the Pac 12 conference tournament. I expected the Beavers to exit the way fellow bid stealer Georgetown did and come back down to earth, but the opposite has happened and they’re now into the second weekend. Oregon State is the definition of house money, and I’m sure Oregon State is happier to be seeing Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16 than Illinois. I can’t play either side in that regional semifinal, because I just don’t know what I’m getting with these Beavers.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+700); To win the title (+5000)
Sweet 16 Odds: Oregon State (+6.5, +245 ML) vs. Loyola-Chicago; O/U 125.5
How To Watch: Saturday, 2:40 p.m. EST on CBS (@ Bankers Life Fieldhouse)
#11 Syracuse Orange
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Three
Recent Tournament History: Lost in first round in 2019. Made regional semifinals in 2018.
Coaching Background: Of course Jim Boeheim’s success in Central New York is well-documented, highlighted by his national championship in 2003. What I’m more intrigued by is his recent ability to make runs as a double-digit seed. Syracuse was a #10 in 2016 when it got all the way to the Final Four and #11 in 2018 when it upset Michigan State to get to the Sweet 16. Now, in 2021, the Orange are back in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, again as a #11 seed. Boeheim's matchup zone seems to be the common denominator here that has given non-conference opponents fits. Fade the 'Cuse with caution.
What it means moving forward: It’s certainly a younger Orange team, but given the way one of their upperclassmen (Jim’s son Buddy) has been shooting recently, I believe there might be more in store for Syracuse. Houston guard Marcus Sasser has been ice cold from the three-point line, and it wouldn’t shock me to see the Orange dare Sasser and the rest of his Cougar teammates to shoot from the beyond the arc here. The Cougars might not be as lucky in the Sweet 16 as they were against Rutgers in the last round.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+500); To win the title (+6000)
Sweet 16 Odds: Syracuse (+6, +200 ML) vs. Houston; O/U 139.5
How To Watch: Saturday, 9:55 p.m. EST on TBS (@ Hinkle Fieldhouse)
#2 Houston Cougars
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Six
Recent Tournament History: Lost in regional semifinal in 2019. Lost in first round in 2018.
Coaching Background: Kelvin Sampson has head coaching experience at big schools like Oklahoma and Indiana, and he also made a Final Four appearance with the Sooners. Houston was a few plays away from getting to the Elite 8 in its last tournament appearance under Sampson in 2019. He’s no slouch and can certainly go toe-to-toe with Jim Boeheim in this Sweet 16 matchup with the Syracuse Orange.
What it means moving forward: Since this article has been entirely about experience, the experience angle here would tell you to take Houston. I’m just hesitant to do so after the Cougars basically begged Rutgers to eliminate them in the Round of 32. The Orange, on the other hand, looked pretty impressive in opening-weekend victories over #6 San Diego State and #3 West Virginia, both as ML underdogs.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+100); To win the title (+900)
Sweet 16 Odds: Houston (-6, -250 ML) vs. Syracuse; O/U 139.5
How To Watch: Saturday, 9:55 p.m. EST on TBS (@ Hinkle Fieldhouse)