By Ben Martinez
@on_a_heater
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Whether you are just filling out a bracket at work for an office pool or looking to build a college hoops opening round parlay to hit it big, I've taken a deep dive into the last 10 years (2010-2019) of NCAA Tournament action to give you a breakdown of how each seed has matched up against the spread and also how those over/under totals have played out. We'll take a look a each first-round seeding matchup below to get started and see what stands out, starting with the 1 vs. 16 game and on down to the 8 vs. 9:
1 vs 16
- 21-19 ATS
- 19-20-1 OVER/UNDER
As odd as it may sound, the 1 vs 16 first round matchup is as close to even as it gets, both in terms of ATS and O/U. As a straight up contest it's not so even, obviously with the only 16-seed ever winning straight up being back in 2018 when UMBC shocked the world and routed Virginia by 20 points. Over the past four tournaments the over has hit 9 times out of 16, but there's not much to take from this specifically.
2 vs 15
- 20-19-1 ATS
- 15-24-1 OVER/UNDER
In 2016 Middle Tennessee knocked out Michigan State as a +16.5 point underdog and was the first round darling of the tournament that year. We also can't forget Lehigh and Florida Gulf Coast posting huge upsets in recent years as well. But after those teams, the #2 seed has pretty much blown out the #15 seed pretty consistently and is currently on a 12-game winning streak straight up. Against the spread it has been a different story, however. At nearly .500 ATS, we may want to pass there, but the O/U record is as lopsided as you can get. The under has the play, hitting 24 times out of 40 over the last 10 years and going 7-1 the last two tournaments. Those aforementioned blowout games could be a big catalyst here.
3 vs 14
- 20-20 ATS
- 15-25 OVER/UNDER
The 3 vs 14 matchup pretty much mirrors 2 vs 15, and one of the greatest upsets over the past five years would definitely be Stephen F. Austin's 14-point victory against West Virginia as a +7 point underdog in 2016. The O/U is where the true value lies, with 25 of the last 40 game having gone under the total and over the last two tournaments the under is again 7-1, just like with the 2 vs 15 games. Not a bad clip.
4 vs 13
- 19-21 ATS
- 16-24 OVER/UNDER
This is where the Madness begins. The #13 seed has pulled off some crazy upsets over the years, sweeping the #4 seed (4-0 ATS) in 2018, with both La Salle (2013) and Ohio (2012) making a run to the Sweet 16. Although the matchup ATS is close to .500 between these two seeds, the #3 seed has only covered the spread eight times over the past 20 contests. Once again though, the under has hit 24 times out of 40 over the last 10 tournaments. In fact, betting just the 2 vs 15, 3 vs 14 and 4 vs 13 matchups from 2009 to 2019 would put you at a ridiculous 73-46-1 mark (60.8%, actually 61.3% without the push).
5 vs 12
- 16-23-1 ATS
- 25-14-1 O/U
The history of the 5 vs 12 seed is one that many bracket-fillers are aware of, and we see ATS mark flip in a major way toward the opposite direction here. The #12 seed has simply dominated the last 10 season ATS and also has 10 ATS victories in the last 16 matchups. In 2019 the #12 seeds again dominated, winning 3 out of 4 games outright and are showing that it might not even be that much of an upset after all. New Mexico State fell to Auburn by just one point that year, too, nearly giving the #12 seeds a full sweep. Our trend of unders ends here with the 5 vs. 12, however, with the over hitting 14 times in the last 16 contest (!) and 25 of 40 contests overall over the past decade. The only other first-round seed matchup that comes to close to such a lopsided amount of overs is the 8 vs 9 matchup, which we'll get to shortly.
6 vs 11
- 15-24-1 ATS
- 14-25-1 O/U
The #11 seed has had two of the most memorable Cinderella teams in March Madness history, with VCU making a run to the final four in 2011 and most recently Loyola- Chicago's underdog run to the final four in 2018. The #11 seed has covered the spread 11 of the last 16 matchups as well and has actually covered the spread the most out of any seed in the last 10 years (!). The under has dominated in this matchup for the past 5 years specifically too, hitting 15 times out of 20 (and 25 of 40 times overall from 2009-2019.)
7 vs 10
- 20-19-1 ATS
- 22-18 O/U
This 7 vs 10 matchup can lead to all kinds of trouble when it comes having your bracket busted and your bets end in a bad beat. The latter comes in the form of bettors believing that they are getting great value if the #7 seed is getting points. A lot of times, however, this match up is a result of a struggling power conference team being matched up with a surging mid-major. The flip-flop nature of this matchup makes it hard to follow as a trend, but it's worth nothing that the #10 seed dominated in 2019 (3-1 ATS). In 2018 though? Well, the #7 seed dominated there (3-1 ATS). The over has been on the winning side of this matchup as of late as well, going over 10 of the last 16. Overall there isn't much to take from here.
8 vs 9
- 20-20 ATS
- 23-16-1 O/U
OK, I know what you are thinking - the 8 vs 9 this has to be the most evenly-matched matchups of them all, right? Actually, the #9 seed has dominated in recent years, covering 9 of the last 12 contests. In 2019, every #9 seed actually closed as the favorite in this matchup and won outright to boot. Personally I believe that almost every #9 seed comes into this matchup with chip on its shoulder, upset that the tournament selection committee put them at 9 and not 8. It might be just a slight motivational edge, sure, but even the slightest of motivational edges can give us an edge as sports bettors. The #8 seed, on the other hand, has made it to the NCAA championship game four times overall, the last time coming in 2011 when Butler lost to UConn. The over has dominated over the last three years too, hitting in 10 times out of the past 12.