By Greg Frank
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It’s no secret - it pays to have players and coaches that have been through the gauntlet that is the NCAA Tournament. Because of this, we've decided to take a look at each program’s overall "experience." Our parameters for defining experience includes having upperclassmen as 'rotational players,' making at least one of the previous two NCAA Tournaments, and head coach’s track record of tournament berths. For this article, we’ve defined a rotational player as someone who sees at least 10 minutes per game.
#1 Michigan Wolverines
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Five
Recent Tournament History: Lost in regional semifinal in 2019 and in national championship in 2018.
Coach Background: Former "Fab Five" member Juwan Howard has done an excellent job in his second season at his alma mater, and while he hired some veteran assistants with previous head coaching experience, I remain concerned about him getting out-coached by a more experienced counterpart in Leonard Hamilton and #4 seeded Florida State Seminoles here. Michigan is still Howard's first head coaching job at any level, and this is also his first time in the NCAA Tournament as a coach.
What it means moving forward: The number of upperclassmen in Michigan’s rotation would be higher if Isaiah Livers was healthy. The top scorers for the Wolverines - Hunter Dickinson and Franz Wagner - are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time, while most of the upperclassmen in Michigan’s rotation are role players. There’s a reason why many felt that Michigan was a vulnerable #1 season, and with a young, inexperienced head coach, and without a veteran leader in the lineup, it’s easy to see why.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+175); To win the title (+750)
Sweet 16 Odds: Michigan (-2.5, -139 ML) vs. FSU; O/U 143.5
How To Watch: Sunday, 5:00 p.m. EST on CBS (@ Bankers Life Fieldhouse)
#4 Florida State Seminoles
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Seven
Recent Tournament History: Lost in regional semifinals in 2019 and regional final in 2018.
Coach Background: I suppose some FSU fans don’t like hearing this, but since Jimbo Fisher left the football program, Leonard Hamilton and the basketball program have taken over in Tallahassee. Hamilton is in his 19th season with the Seminoles, and this looks like his best chance yet to get to his first Final Four. He also made the tournament three times in the 90s at Miami, but never got past the Sweet 16. This is his fourth Sweet 16 with the 'Noles, who sport seven juniors/seniors who we define as "rotational players."
What it means moving forward: I fully anticipate Florida State to be the trendy underdog at the betting window in the regional semifinals. If that’s enough to keep you off the Seminoles, so be it, but they’ll have the experience edge over Michigan here and getting +2.5 points and +117 to win the game outright.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+250); To win the title (+1500)
Sweet 16 Odds: FSU (+2.5, +117 ML) vs. Michigan; O/U 143.5
How To Watch: Sunday, 5:00 p.m. EST on CBS (@ Bankers Life Fieldhouse)
#11 UCLA Bruins
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Three
Recent Tournament History: Did not qualify in 2019. Lost in First Four in 2018.
Coach Background: While he’s a familiar face from his time at Murray State, and most recently Cincinnati Bearcats, this is only Mick Cronin’s second time in the Sweet 16 as a college head coach.
What it means moving forward: Much like Michigan, an injury to an experienced player – guard Chris Smith tore his ACL in January – skews this one a little bit for the Bruins. However, it’s easy to look at just three upperclassmen in the rotation coached by a man who has never been past the Sweet 16 (and is only in a regional semifinal for the second time in his career), and think "fade." I can’t quite get there with this Bruins squad though. UCLA’s trio of sophomores Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell all played above their age this year. There were a lot of expectations for UCLA this season with so many players returning from Cronin’s first season with the program. For a while it looked like they were going to be one of the nation’s biggest underachievers. Maybe they’re hitting their stride just in time.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+700); To win the title (+4000)
Sweet 16 Odds: UCLA (+6.5, +235 ML) vs. Alabama; O/U 145.5
How To Watch: Sunday, 7:15 p.m. EST on TBS (@ Hinkle Fieldhouse)
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Five
Recent Tournament History: This is the Alabama Crimson Tide’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2017-2018, a year in which they were eliminated in the Round of 32.
Coach Background: Nate Oats is one of the rising stars in the coaching profession in the sport of college basketball. In four of his six seasons as a head coach between Buffalo and Alabama, he has made the NCAA Tournament, and he’s already above .500 in the tournament at 4-3 coming into this game.
What it means moving forward: With most of the roster having never played in the tournament before this season - and with a coach who almost always has less experience than his counterpart in a March Madness game - I’ve been waiting for Alabama’s slip-up game. While it hasn’t happened yet, it might just happen against UCLA. Should the Crimson Tide get to the regional final, the pressure then shifts to Michigan potentially carrying the weight of the Big 10, or Hamilton trying to get to his first Final Four.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+175); To win the title (+1100)
Sweet 16 Odds: Alabama (-6.5, -286 ML) vs. UCLA; O/U 145.5
How To Watch: Sunday, 7:15 p.m. EST on TBS (@ Hinkle Fieldhouse)