By Greg Frank
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It’s no secret - it pays to have players and coaches that have been through the gauntlet that is the NCAA Tournament. Because of this, we've decided to take a look at each program’s overall "experience." Our parameters for defining experience includes having upperclassmen as 'rotational players,' making at least one of the previous two NCAA Tournaments, and head coach’s track record of tournament berths. For this article, we’ve defined a rotational player as someone who sees at least 10 minutes per game.
#1 Baylor Bruins
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Six
Recent Tournament History: Lost in Round of 32 in 2019. Did not qualify in 2018.
Coach Background: Scott Drew is in his 17th season at Baylor and still in search of his first Final Four appearance. He got his first Big 12 regular season title this year, however, and looks primed for more.
What it means moving forward: Don’t be confused by the lack of tournament success recently for these Baylor Bears. They are a group comprised of several transfers who all started to gel perfectly while hitting the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll last year. Then COVID-19 ended the college hoops season and put the rest of the sports world on pause. Baylor is back, and the Bears are looking like a team that can win it all.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (-167); To win the title (+350)
Sweet 16 Odds: Baylor (-7.5, -315 ML) vs. Villanova; O/U 141
How To Watch: Saturday, 5:15 p.m. EST on CBS (@ Hinkle Fieldhouse)
#5 Villanova Wildcats
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Four
Recent Tournament History: Lost in Round of 32 in 2019. National Champions in 2018.
Coach Background: Jay Wright exorcised some demons in 2016 by winning the national title, and he followed it up with another one in 2018. He’s now in his 20th season at Villanova and has accomplished just about everything in the sport, including an impressive Sweet 16 appearance this year - with back-to-back dominating wins over Winthrop and North Texas no less - despite the loss of Collin Gillespie.
What it means moving forward: Gillespie’s season-ending injury continues to lurk over a Villanova team that’s pretty young. Much like the 2016 and 2018 teams were drastically different roster complexions, I would expect Villanova to be in the National Championship discussion in 2022 with another different makeup. As far as this weekend goes, I’ll have no problem laying the points to back Baylor here.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+500); To win the title (+3300)
Sweet 16 Odds: Villanova (+7.5, +250 ML) vs. Baylor; O/U 141
How To Watch: Saturday, 5:15 p.m. EST on CBS (@ Hinkle Fieldhouse)
#3 Arkansas Razorbacks
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Four
Recent Tournament History: Did not qualify in 2019. Lost in the first round in 2018.
Coaching Background: Eric Musselman is in his first Sweet 16 appearance as the head coach at Arkansas in year two with the 'Hogs. He also made the tournament in three out of four seasons at Nevada as the Wolfpack head coach, including another trip to the Sweet 16 in 2018 with the Martin brothers.
What it means moving forward: Much like Alabama, I was hesitant to back Arkansas during the first weekend of this year’s tournament. Younger teams with little-to-no tournament experience need to prove themselves for me to trust them, and the Razorbacks have now done that. There simply may be no bigger “happy-to-be-here” team in the Sweet 16 than their opponent in Oral Roberts, a team which Arkansas beat by double digits right before Christmas. Now that the pressure of being a high seed for the first time is off for this group of young Razorbacks, they just might have a shot to get to the Final Four.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+175); To win the title (+2000)
Sweet 16 Odds: Arkansas (-11.5, -625 ML) vs. Oral Roberts; O/U 159
How To Watch: Saturday, 7:25 p.m. EST on TBS (@ Bankers Life Fieldhouse)
#15 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Number of juniors and seniors in rotation: Three
Recent Tournament History: This is the first trip to the tournament for Oral Roberts since 2008.
Coaching Background: This is the first Division I head coaching job for fourth-year man Paul Mills, and he has now made the Sweet 16 in his first NCAA Tournament appearance with the Golden Eagles.
What it means moving forward: Sure, you get a George Mason, VCU or Loyola-Chicago every now and then, but usually this regional weekend is where the clock strikes midnight for Cinderella. I hesitate to mention the Brad Stevens Butler teams here, simply because the first team that got to the National Championship game was a #5 seed and they got back there the following year as a #8 and upsetting the #1 seed in their region in the Round of 32, which opened up the bracket. If the seeds hold elsewhere in the region, the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 is often too much for the little guy. That’s what we get in this matchup with Arkansas here, one in which experience doesn’t look like a big factor or advantage for either team.
Futures Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook): To make the final four (+3000); To win the title (+10000)
Sweet 16 Odds: Oral Roberts (+11.5, +425 ML) vs. Arkansas; O/U 159
How To Watch: Saturday, 7:25 p.m. EST on TBS (@ Bankers Life Fieldhouse)