By Mackenzie Rivers
Author's Note: For the complete Google Doc/spreadsheet of my updated NBA 2021 Power Ratings, which include each team's net rating, offensive rating, defensive rating and current record, just click here.
In order to create a betting line between two of the teams listed below, simply find the difference between the two teams' power rating and give the home team an additional 1.5 points for home court advantage.
Example - the Los Angeles Lakers play the Golden State Warriors in L.A., and the Lakers are 6 points better according to the power rankings. The Lakers are also home, which is worth 1.5 points. The line in this case should be Lakers -7.5 (6 points added for PR difference + 1.5 points added for HCA). Each week I will also highlight notable movements between NBA teams and their new power rating scores listed here below:
Utah Jazz
- Current: +7.5
- Last: +6.5
- Start: +2.5
Are you not entertained? The Utah Jazz are 22-2 ATS and while Mike Conley may not have made the NBA All-Star team, he's now clearly the "Greatest NBA Player Never to Make an All-Star Team." Conley's teammates reportedly wanted him to get shots on Wednesday to boost his All-Star snub numbers, but Conley declined, opting to play his normal game. One of the classiest (and best) players in the business.
LA Clippers
- Current: +6.5
- Last: +4.5
- Start: +5.5
The Clippers' starting five boasts a ridiculous +20.4 Net Rating, by far the best in the league this season and six points better than that of Utah’s! Just like last year, I do not get why the national media is acting like LAC is having a so-so year. Well, maybe it makes more sense this time when we consider what actually happened last year. Nothing about the Clippers franchise will matter until they can break through and shed the “also-ran” moniker in LA. Gun to my head I would still take them to win the west without blinking.
Philadelphia 76ers
- Current: +5
- Last: +5
- Start: +2.5
The Sixers are now 20-6 with Joel Embiid in the lineup, and Embiid is a deserved MVP favorite. (Hm... the Clippers are 19-7 with Kawhi in the lineup and he is 40-1 to win MVP. I guess that is one game worse...)
Denver Nuggets
- Current: +3.5
- Last: +3
- Start: +3.5
There is an old mantra among NBA people (which I just made up right now): "You do not win MVP's losing to Washington." Nuggets C Nikola Jokic and King James can both commiserate this week over that fact.
Milwaukee Bucks
- Current: +3.5
- Last: +5.5
- Start: +6.5
The Bucks are 1-4 SU & ATS vs. playoff teams without Jrue Holiday in the lineup this season. Worrisome that a player in his first year with a team would be so critical to its success. So goes Milwaukee's 2021.
Phoenix Suns
- Current: +3
- Last: +2.5
- Start: +2
It felt like the Phoenix Suns got a whiff of themselves while cruising to their 10th win in 11 games, all while watching their newly-assigned All-Star Devin Booker make a mockery of his initial All-Star snub. Booker knocked down 16 points on 7/8 shooting within the first eight minutes of the Suns' game vs. the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday. The Suns had a 17-point lead late in the first quarter, and after that, Phoenix's usually stellar defense disappeared and gave up close to 100 points in the final three quarters of action.
Brooklyn Nets
- Current: +2.5
- Last: +5
- Start: +4.5
Missing a top-two player in the world, yet going on a 7-0 SU & ATS run, ain’t bad. The Brooklyn Nets to win the East is still at plus-money, and we are one Embiid injury away from that number going to -150.
Toronto Raptors
- Current: +2
- Last: +2
- Start: 2.5
The Toronto Raptors (14-15, 6th in the East) have been disappointing this year...at home, at least (4-8 ATS). On the road, however, they have been just fine (9-8 ATS). Of course, the Raptors' "home" games this year have actually been played in Tampa. Considering that disruption - uprooting your life and living out of a suitcase - the Raptors may be just as good as they were last year, which is top four in the conference.
Miami Heat
- Current: +2
- Last: +1
- Start: +4
Miami is finally healthy and poised to get themselves back in postseason contention. Now imagine if Milwaukee has to play them in round one of the Eastern Conference playoffs - yikes! Tough out.
LA Lakers
- Current: +1.5
- Last: +3.5
- Start: +6.5
The Los Angeles Lakers have failed to cover in their nine games ATS without Anthony Davis in the lineup (0-8-1). The disrespect on this man name's needs its own 30:30 one day. In 2018, Davis was widely considered the best player in the world - or at least right there with Steph, Harden, Durant and LeBron. Then what happened? Davis demanded a trade to a team that had just missed the playoffs, got that trade (to a team that had also just missed the playoffs) and immediately wins the championship while touting a career playoff PER that is ONLY matched by Michael Jordan. And y'all have him as a borderline top eight NBA player? Makes no sense. Davis has gotten better and better, and he belongs in the pantheon of all-time NBA great big men. He is Kareem with range, Dirk with defense. He is everything. Stop sleeping.
Dallas Mavericks
- Current: +1.5
- Last: +2
- Start: +1.5
Luka! Luka! Overall, I actually have been slightly disappointed in the "Young One" compared to his stellar 2019-2020 campaign with the Dallas Mavericks. But the dude just knocked down two of the most clutch three-point shots of the year (back-to-back, no less) in the final 15 seconds of a must-win (which the Mavericks won, by the way). And I was not the least bit surprised. You can just tell with this kid: ice water.
GS Warriors
- Current: +1
- Last: +0.5
- Start: -1
Kevon Looney is back. That is pretty much all you need to know as to why the Golden State Warriors are suddenly killing it, winning six of nine. After the break, we will see if the Warriors can make a real playoff run or not. Their first three opponents? Lakers, Jazz & Clippers. If they go 2-1 during that stretch, I am going to dig up my 100/1 ticket on them to win the title. If they go 0-3, (far more likely), I’ll leave it buried.
Boston Celtics
- Current: +0.5
- Last: +1.5
- Start: +4
These Boston Celtics had a huge opportunity to turn their season upright this week in Dallas. I bet them and called it "a get right game" for a crew that has underperformed for the past month. In the fourth quarter of that same game in Dallas, Robert Williams & Semi Ojeleye ran into each other trying to a corral a missed free throw. The ball squirted out and found Jaylen Brunson, who knocked a critical three. Of course, the night ended with Luka draining two LONG three-pointers in the final 15 seconds to pull it out for Dallas, but that one throw away moment by the Celtics frontline reserves, to me, summarized the entire 2020-2021 campaign. They should be better, and they keep shooting themselves in the foot.
Portland Blazers
- Current: +0.5
- Last: -1
- Start: +1.5
Damian Lillard might just be the most valuable player in the NBA at the moment, considering how much of the Portland Trail Blazers offense requires his initial threat of penetration and range. Lillard missed out on the All-Star starter nod, but he should be an All-NBA guy - with Steph and over Luka - in my opinion.
San Antonio Spurs
- Current: +0.5
- Last: +0.5
- Start: -2
Relatively easy schedule with mostly home games, and now their season has been interrupted due to COVID. If any franchise and coach can hit the blocks running after this kind of disruption, its Pop & Co.
New Orleans Pelicans
- Current: +0.5
- Last: -0.5
- Start: 0
Zion Williamson's stats in February are INSANE: 27 PPG, 4.5 APG, 67% FG, 2 TO pg. It's not a projection anymore: Zion is one of the best players in the NBA. He is on track to be the first player ever to shoot >60% from the field and score 25 PPG for a season. By the way, this team is 19-2 to the over in its last 21 (!).
Indiana Pacers
- Current: 0
- Last: +0.5
- Start: +1
Missing two key wing players, the Indiana Pacers have taken a step back - from decent to mediocre.
Atlanta Hawks
- Current: 0
- Last: -0.5
- Start: 0
Galo is back! Danilo Gallinari got off to a rocky start in Atlanta with injuries keeping him out until February - and scuffing him along to start the season - but all that seemed to change Wednesday vs. Boston when Galo exploded for 38 points on only 16 shot attempts. Gallinari has been a 20 PPG guy before, and there's no reason why he can't be a major piece for this young Atlanta Hawks team over the next couple years.
Memphis Grizzlies
- Current: -1.5
- Last: -1
- Start: -3
Justice Winslow just played his first game for Memphis, and the Grizzlies' Hustle & Flow record seemed to scratch (What?). Translation: These Grizzlies seem to be struggling as they integrate former Heat PG Justice Winslow into their team. Winslow returned from an extended absence on Saturday and looked awful in a blowout loss to Phoenix. My thinking is that they want him to be the backup PG and leading the 2nd unit once Ja Morant takes his first rest, then staying on the floor with Morant to close out games.
Washington Wizards
- Current: -1.5
- Last: -3
- Start: -2
Washington has won 5 of 6, and if you squint, Russell Westbrook's stats over the last month look a little like Prime Brodie. Watch out for this team if its stellar backcourt continues to gel and help each other excel.
Sacramento Kings
- Current: -2
- Last: -1.5
- Start: -2
Kings are on an 0-8 SU & ATS skid, and Luke Walton is the favorite at BetOnline to be the first coach fired.
Charlotte Hornets
- Current: -2
- Last: -2.5
- Start: -5.5
Simple splits need love too. When LaMelo Ball plays 27+ minutes, the Charlotte Hornets are 12-7 SU, which includes a comeback win over the upstart Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, with the rookie Ball thriving in his matchup vs. the diminutive, if great, Chris Paul, down the stretch of his team's comeback.
NY Knicks
- Current: -2.5
- Last: -2.5
- Start: -7
Derrick Rose has been playing a smaller role than I anticipated after his old coach grabbed him away from Detroit, averaging only 21 MPG so far through seven games. The Knicks are 4-3 SU since, which equates to a solid couple weeks for a team looking to snap an embarrassing near decade-long playoff drought.
Chicago Bulls
- Current: -3
- Last: -4
- Start: -4.5
Let us revisit our February 11th prediction, made after Zach LaVine scored 46 points in the first game that the Chicago Bulls played without PF Lauri Markkanen. It read: "Look for Lavine to carry the offensive load to a similarly high degree throughout Markkanen's absence." Since the time of that writing, LaVine has thrown up more than 31 PPG over seven games. More importantly, he has cashed his over in five of those seven. Overall, Lavine has cashed his over points prop in 8 of the 10 games since Markkanen went down.
Orlando Magic
- Current: -3.5
- Last: -4.5
- Start: -1.5
After a horrendous 3-15 SU stretch immediately following Markelle Fultz's season-ending injury, the Orlando Magic have suddenly flipped the script and won four of six. The difference? Rookie PG Cole Anthony has been out with injury, allowing the Magic to instead play veteran Michael Carter-Williams.
Houston Rockets
- Current: -4
- Last: -2
- Start: -1.5
Since C Christian Wood went down in early February, the Rockets are on a woeful 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS run. Houston recently waived DeMarcus Cousins as a way of doubling down on their commitment to Wood.
OKC Thunder
- Current: -4
- Last: -4
- Start: -3.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a career-high 42 points as the OKC Thunder edged the Spurs on Wednesday night, 102-99. It was true with MJ in Game 6 of the 1998 Finals, and it was true with LeBron in Game 2 of the 2015 Finals. Scoring 40+ points in a very low-scoring game like that is incredible. SGA making a leap this year with more opportunities reflects well on the franchise's long-term plans.
Detroit Pistons
- Current: -4.5
- Last: -5.5
- Start: -6
Sometimes, when I don't know what to write, I look at a team's SB nation website. Today the banner read: "He might not be perfect, but Mason Plumlee helps make the Pistons offense go." I think that says it all.
Minny Timbers
- Current: -5.5
- Last:-6
- Start: -2.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves recently, mercifully, got rid of coach Ryan Saunders, who won about 30% of his games in just over two years. Since the Wolves first fired Ryan's dad - the late Flip Saunders in 2005 - the franchise has won just 34% of its games overall and only covered the spread only 45% of the time.
Cleveland Cavs
- Current: -7
- Last: -5
- Start: -6
Feels like yesterday the Cavs were the plucky overachievers. Blink, and they have since gone 3-12 SU & ATS over their last 15. Now squarely the worst team in the league, but they are on a two-game win streak!