By Dalton Brown
After a 2-0 Thursday, Dalton Brown is back with a pair of first-five-inning bets for Friday's MLB slate.
6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers: First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-105)
The Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers will continue their four-game series Friday night from Comerica Park in Detroit, and I believe both offenses will get off to strong starts against sub-par starting pitching.
Lance Lynn (3-5, 6.28 ERA) takes the hill for Chicago - and while he is seemingly the better of these two arms, he has allowed two or more earned runs in every start this season for the White Sox. As Lynn gets older, his stuff becomes more diminished each season, and he's especially struggled away from Guaranteed Rate Field (6.35 ERA on the road). Detroit's offense isn't great, but it is rapidly improving, and the Tigers picked up five runs in 10 innings against Lynn last season.
Detroit sends Joey Wentz to the mound, and the White Sox ought to have a field day with him. Wentz (1-4, 7.45 ERA) has one of the ugliest Baseball Savant pages you'll ever see, and is the owner of an abysmal 8.82 ERA in May. The lefty is surrendering more than two runners per inning this month, a nightmarish statistic with the improving White Sox offense up next. Chicago's preferred split has been left-handed pitching for years now, and 2023 is no different - expect runs early and often on both sides here.
10:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners: Pirates First 5 Innings +148
Put simply, Pirates starter Mitch Keller is on an other-worldly run right now and should not be catching plus-money like this against anyone. Keller has allowed just three earned runs over 27 innings in the month of May, while striking out 37 batters and walking just two. Long considered a plus-potential prospect for the Pirates, Keller has clearly put it together, and the results have been staggering and are validated by a 2.82 xERA.
Seattle ranks merely middle-of-the-road against right-handed pitching (16th in wRC+), and has been slow out of the gates offensively at times this season (25th in first-inning runs).
George Kirby has been very good for the Mariners in his own right, boasting a 2.98 xERA and a 2.28 ERA in May. Kirby walks nobody, and is allowing a steadily-improving contact profile - but this bet is not a fade of the Mariners righty at all. Neither offense has a notable edge here, and I give Pittsburgh the slight nod in the starting pitching matchup, so +148 over the first five innings makes no sense to me. Let's take advantage.