With another packed slate of MLB action on deck Wednesday, handicapper Dalton Brown is locked and loaded with two more best bets.
2:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Houston Astros: Astros First 5 Innings -0.5 (-108)
I gave out Astros -140 in the Betting Predators discord channel early in the day Tuesday as a look for Wednesday, and money has poured in on Houston to push them up to -160 at most books. If you can find a number near -140, I'd still play it - but I like this first-five angle equally as much given Houston's gigantic pitching advantage.
Cristian Javier pitches for the Astros, a remarkably consistent righty who has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts and boasts an impressive 7-1, 2.90 ERA stat line overall.
Struggling righty Tylor Megill gets the ball for New York, a pitcher who has surrendered a 7.42 ERA away from Citi Field and six or more earned runs in three of his last five starts overall. Megill strikes out fewer hitters than 81% of MLB pitchers and walks more hitters than 82% of MLB pitchers, all while allowing a higher expected batting average than 90% of pitchers.
He's a mess no matter how you slice it, and Houston can be a house of horrors for struggling pitchers on the road. It would be a surprise if the Astros are not ahead before each side's bullpen enters, so -108 on this first-five runline is a bargain.
12:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins: Blue Jays team total over 3.5 (-122) at FanDuel
At what point are we going to admit that Sandy Alcantara has actually come crashing down to earth after his 2022 Cy Young campaign? The righty has surrendered four or more runs in five of his last seven starts, a stretch that resembles Jordan Lyles more than 2022's edition of Alcantara. It's not like he is due for steep positive regression, either - Alcantara's xERA of 4.23 is only slightly better than his actual 4.97 ERA.
The Toronto Blue Jays are no slouch against righties, either. The Jays rank fourth in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and are due for some positive regression themselves after an extended period of poor performance with runners in scoring position. Alcantara has been lit up by the likes of Oakland and Washington recently, so Toronto could prove troublesome for the talented righty.
Let's not chase Alcantara here expecting him to suddenly find it. Trust what you've seen, and bet the undervalued Blue Jays to get on the scoreboard early and often.