After a short Monday slate didn't present any game with enough value to qualify, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with two best bets on Tuesday's packed MLB schedule.
7:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians: Guardians team total over 4.5 (-125) at Caesars
The Cleveland Guardians will continue their three-game set with the Kansas City Royals Tuesday night from Progressive Field in Cleveland, and I'm backing the Guards offense at home to come through.
Cleveland will takes its shot at Kansas City starter Zack Greinke, a veteran who has struggled mightily through his 39-year-old season. Greinke is 1-10 with a 5.40 ERA, and a 5.14 xERA. When he saw the Guardians in June, Terry Francona's team pounded out 11 hits against him. He posted a 7.56 ERA in June, and holds a 7.71 ERA so far in July. Royals' opponents have finished with five or more runs in 11 of Greinke's last 16 starts (69%), and Cleveland ranks ninth in MLB with a wRC+ of 114 since June 15.
When Greinke exits, the Guardians will face a Royals bullpen that ranks 26th in MLB since June 15 with an xFIP of 4.78.
8:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins: Twins F5 moneyline (-115) at Bet365
The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins will meet for the sixth time in a little more than a week on Tuesday night from Target Field in Minneapolis, and I'm backing the Twinkies at home to get out to an early lead.
Both of these pitchers (George Kirby and Pablo Lopez) saw this opponent last week, and each pitched well. I'm trusting Lopez to pitch well a second time, while I think George Kirby's strike-throwing ways could work against him versus an improving Minnesota offense. Pablo Lopez holds the lower xERA (3.22 vs. 3.83), and has advantages over the Mariners righty in 13 of the 14 categories Baseball Savant measures.
Minnesota's offense has been excellent against righties lately (wRC+ 117, sixth-best in MLB) as well, while Seattle ranks 15th in the same split.
If there's an area of distinct advantage for the Mariners, it's in the bullpen - so let's avoid that altogether and play the Twins over the game's first five innings.