After a 3-0 start to the weekend on Friday and Saturday, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with three more plays for Sunday's afternoon baseball slate.
2:35 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers: OVER 9.5 (-120) at DraftKings
The Dodgers and Rangers have already played two high-scoring games this weekend, and I'm not expecting Sunday's matchup to be any different with two struggling starters heading to the mound. Los Angeles has provided most of the fireworks, producing 27 runs over two games.
L.A. turns to rookie righty Emmet Sheehan, a promising pitcher with an upper-90s fastball and mechanics that closely resemble Stephen Strasburg. Lately, though, Sheehan has struggled - and with Texas up next, it could get a bit ugly in just his sixth career start. Emmet Sheehan has struggled with his command, walking seven batters in 8.2 July innings. He was victimized for four runs by the O's earlier this week, and surrendered five earned runs to the lowly pirates at home while failing to complete four innings before the All-Star Break. I'm a believer in Sheehan long-term, but not in this spot - don't be surprised if the Rangers put a five-spot on him quickly.
Texas will send veteran lefty Martin Perez to the mound, a starter who has seen his results completely unravel over his last two starts. Perez has allowed nine runs over those 6.1 innings, leaving his July ERA at an embarrassing 12.79 so far. He has walked almost one batter per inning this month, and is facing a ridiculously hot Dodgers offense that has scored double-digit runs in three of its last four games and five or more runs in 14 of its last 15. Overall, Perez's 5.60 xERA this season is his highest since 2018. If you like offense, this game should be a pleasure to watch.
4:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners: Mariners F5 moneyline (-130) at Bet365, Mariners team total OVER 4 (-130) at FanDuel
We are getting another reasonable price to fade Alek Manoah on Sunday, and I am all over it. Seattle has eked out close victories in the first two games of this series with Toronto, and the M's have won five of seven overall.
Manoah, who pitches for Toronto on Sunday, provided hope for Jays fans in his first game back from his trip to the minors when he faced Detroit on July 7. That hope disappeared quickly in his last start, when he walked five batters in three innings, surrendered four earned runs, and picked up the loss against San Diego. Manoah is clearly not fixed, and Seattle has been above average (105 wRC+) against right-handed pitching since June 15.
Part of Manoah's success in Detroit in his return start can likely be credited to the run support he received - but he's unlikely to be able to count on similar support against Mariners rookie Bryan Woo. The righty's 3.34 xERA is impressive, and provides solace after he hit a huge road block against Minnesota last start (seven earned runs). Given that Woo had surrendered two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts before that one, I'm willing to write it off as a blip on the radar - nevertheless, playing Mariners team total over 4 here should allow us to come out close to even if Woo doesn't come through.
These two bets are correlated, and if we get the outing we expect from Woo, both will have a great chance of cashing.