As another exciting weekend of post All-Star-Break baseball commences, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with a play on a potential World Series preview from Arlington.
8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers: First 5 Innings OVER 5 (-110) at Bet365
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers will lock horns in a battle between two of baseball's best offenses starting Friday night from Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, and I'm expecting the fireworks to begin early.
Righty Tony Gonsolin is pitching for the Dodgers, a struggling righty experiencing the throes of negative regression while heading into a nest of hornets. Gonsolin's xERA of 4.88 explains his recent stretch of struggles, as he's posted a 6.19 ERA since the start of June and allowed four or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts. One of the exceptions was his last outing in New York, a start he was removed from at just 54 pitches because he was repeatedly allowing line-drive outs with absurd exit velocities. These Rangers are the best offense he's faced during that stretch, too - Texas has the best home wRC+ in baseball at 135, and its wRC+ vs. righties of 122 is fourth-best in MLB since June 15.
Gonsolin's stuff is far from elite, so he is reliant on pinpoint location and deception to get outs. If he succeeds, we'll tip our cap to him - but nothing in his recent history suggests that success is likely against a lineup at potent as the Rangers.
On the other side, it'll be lefty Andrew Heaney for the Rangers. Heaney has posted extremely volatile results, alternating between getting absolutely shelled for six or eight runs with impressive scoreless outings. Against this red-hot Dodgers offense (five or more runs scored in 12 of its last 13 games), it is not difficult to imagine this start getting completely out of hand - especially given Los Angeles' affinity for hitting homers.
L.A.'s 73 first-inning runs are the second-most in baseball, so Heaney is going to need to have his command immediately if he hopes to avoid an early exit.
There are simply more ways that we arrive at five or more runs in the first five innings than there are ways that we don't especially given both offenses' and both starting pitchers' recent trends of combustibility.