After breaking even on a pair of plays on Friday's second-half opening slate, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with two more looks for Saturday's MLB schedule.
1:05 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (Game 1): Padres F5 moneyline (-120) at FanDuel
The San Diego Padres picked up a comfortable win in Philadelphia on Friday night, thwarting my hopes of starting the second half with a win. Saturday, San Diego and Philly will come together for a double-header, and I'm backing Blake Snell and the Friars in the first game.
Snell has been lights out for a good while now, allowing a run or less in eight of nine starts and only allowing two runs in the exception. He has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball over the past two months, and has struck out 10 or more batters in five of his last six starts.
The Padres and Phillies both entered the All-Star Break hot, but Friday night showcased that the Padres offense has kept its flame alive with stars Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. all going deep. Taijuan Walker is a streaky starter for Philly, and five walks and four earned runs against Tampa Bay before the break tell me that he could be in for another downward spiral - and given San Diego's sixth-best wRC+ (112) vs. righties since June 1, he'll catch no breaks on Saturday.
Philadelphia has had the better bullpen of late, so let's settle this early. Blake Snell tends to turn it on as the season goes along, so we are riding the wave into Philadelphia on Saturday.
2:20 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs: Red Sox moneyline (+104) at FanDuel
The Boston Red Sox handled the Cubs comfortably in Friday night's opener in Chicago, and I expect to see Boston clinch the series on Saturday afternoon.
The Red Sox will turn to veteran James Paxton, a lefty who has had a comeback season straight out of a dream. Paxton's 2.73 ERA is backed up by a strong 3.15 xERA, and his consistently solid results and red-centric Baseball Savant profile back up the numbers. Paxton has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts, and runs into a Cubs offense that ranks in MLB's bottom 10 vs. lefties since June 1 (wRC+ 91).
Marcus Stroman pitches for Chicago, which is ultimately why we are getting such a generous number with the red-hot James Paxton. Stroman has been due for negative regression all season, though, and it has arrived loudly over his last three starts. The righty has surrendered at least four runs in each of those outings, and his 3.81 xERA tells the tale of a slightly above-average pitcher rather than the Cy Young contender we've seen for much of 2023. Boston's offense is more than capable of getting after him if he isn't sharp, led by lefties like Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, and Alex Verdugo.
Both bullpens have been close to league average over the last month, but I'm expecting that we will see higher-leverage arms from the Sox as they enter the later innings with a lead. The Red Sox should not be underdogs here.