With a full Saturday slate of MLB action on deck Saturday, handicapper Dalton Brown is looking to start off July on the right foot.
4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at New York Mets: OVER 8-5 (-105) at BetMGM
The Giants will look to make it two straight over the Mets at Citi Field when these two teams lock horns again on Saturday afternoon, and I'm expecting both offenses to come out swinging against a pair of overvalued righties.
Mets starter Justin Verlander has not often looks like an ace during this age-40 season, pitching to a pedestrian 4.11 ERA and allowing harder hit contact on average than 86% of MLB pitchers. That level of hard contact can be sustainable if you're missing enough bats otherwise, but J.V. isn't doing that anymore either. Verlander's strikeout rate has plummeted to 20.6%, his lowest since at least 2015. That won't help his cause against a Giants offense that has been exceptionally good lately and holds an above average wRC+ vs. righties for the season.
If the Giants are still seeking additional runs after Verlander's eventual exit, you've got to like their chances against New York's 25th-ranked bulllpen in xFIP since June 1.
Anthony DeSclafani (4-7, 4.28 ERA) boasts a 4.54 xERA of his own, and has allowed a 6.65 mark in June. The Mets already saw Desclafani in April and clobbered him for four runs over five innings, and he hasn't shown marked improvement since then.
1:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds: Padres First 5 Innings -0.5 (-114) at FanDuel
This is a massive pitching mismatch between San Diego and Cincinnati on Saturday, and I think we are best off avoiding any bullpen shenanigans given what we've seen of late from the Friars.
Michael Wacha has been a machine, allowing two or fewer runs in five straight starts and five or fewer hits in 10 straight starts. Put simply, he's been difficult to hit - and Cincinnati has been merely average (wRC+ of 97) against righties this year. We've already seen Wacha hold the Reds scoreless through six innings at Petco Park, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him repeat that performance here.
Rookie lefty Brandon Williamson has been a certified gas can for the Reds, pitching to a 6.76 xERA and allowing three or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Williamson is in for a rude awakening against San Diego, too - while the Padres have been cold as a team, their offense has been punishing baseballs to the tune of a 139 wRC+ vs. lefties since June 1 (112 overall).
The Padres are an unsexy bet right now given their current woes, but they're much cheaper than they should be here over the first five innings. Let's not shy away from it.