With a full slate of games on the docket for Sunday, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown looks to finish the weekend strong with a pair of interleague plays.
1:35 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies team total OVER 5 (-125) at Caesars
The Royals and Phillies will complete a three-game series Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park, and I am backing Philadelphia's offense to have a field day vs. veteran righty Zack Greinke.
It's been a rough season for the 39-year-old, as the numbers speak for themselves. Greinke's 1-11 record and 5.32 ERA tell a decent amount of the story, and things don't get better with a look under the hood. He's limiting walks, which is worth something, but ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB pitchers in xBA, xSLG, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. When you aren't missing bats and the contact being made against you is resulting in disaster, you're going to have a bad time.
Sure, Greinke has pitched admirably against some of the league's worst offenses - and the currently ice-cold Mets he faced in his last start certainly qualify - but teams with a pulse have had their way with him. Teams that currently hold records of .500 or above have scored at least three runs against Greinke in five straight, and he's allowed an average of five runs per start in those outings.
On the road this season, Zack Greinke is 0-7 with a 7.40 ERA - and after he exits this start, a Kansas City bullpen that wasn't good to begin with and was picked over at the trade deadline will follow him into the game.
2:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins: OVER 8.5 (-115) at FanDuel
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Minnesota Twins will finish a three-game set from Target Field on Sunday, and one of my favorite fades in baseball is back in the big leagues. Dallas Keuchel is returning to league, this time with the Twins, and I am excited to bet the over in his debut.
Keuchel went 2-5 with a 7.88 ERA in 2022, bouncing between organizations and eventually finding himself outside of the majors. His 5.28 ERA in 2021 was only slightly better, and the 6.15 xERA that accompanied it suggested that a hard fall like he experienced was on the way. He's been solid in Triple-A with St. Paul, but he'll need to show me that something has materially changed before I'll believe he can have success at the MLB level again, especially given that his walk rate remained high in the minors so far this season.
Zac Gallen will pitch for Arizona, a pitcher who hasn't been quite as special as meets the naked eye - especially lately. Gallen's xERA of 3.94 and middling Baseball Savant stats paint the picture of a close to average right-handed pitcher, and his 4.45-ERA July does too. Gallen has surrendered three or more runs in five of his last six starts, and is holding a 4.93 ERA when he pitches away from Chase Field this season. The Twins are smashing righties, too, ranking sixth in baseball with a wRC+ of 123 against them since July 1.
I have a little more confidence in Zac Gallen than I do in Dallas Keuchel, but there are too many paths for this game to go over for me to ignore.