Happy Fathers Day from Betting Predators! Dalton Brown is back with two more plays on Sunday's packed MLB slate.
1:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets: Mets moneyline (-115) at WynnBet
The Cardinals and Mets will close out their three-game series at Citi Field Sunday afternoon, and I'm backing New York at home to win the rubber match.
The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled in 2023 to a degree nobody saw coming, and are sitting at 28-43 heading into Sunday. They haven't won a series in almost a month, and young lefty Matthew Liberatore (1-2, 5.14 ERA) could be headed into a hornet's nest against a Mets lineup with a strong 108 wRC+ since May 15. Liberatore's xERA of 6.77 also suggests he's due for additional regression, as does his 1.80 WHIP in June.
New York will counter with Carlos Carrasco - and while Carrasco hasn't looked nearly as effective during his tenure with the Mets as he did during his time in Cleveland, he's quietly pitched more effectively of late. The righty has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts, and the Cardinals are a slumping offense.
New York also holds a slight edge in the bullpen, and St. Louis used each of its two highest-leverage relievers for 15 or more pitches Saturday. I make the Mets a favorite of closer to -140 here, so I'm seeing value up to about -125.
2:35 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers: Rangers moneyline (-118) at FanDuel
Toronto and Texas will complete their first of two series this season Sunday afternoon, and I am putting my faith in the home Rangers to come out on top behind starter Jon Gray.
Gray (6-2, 2.32 ERA) has been on fire recently, allowing a run or fewer in each of his last six starts. He has allowed five or fewer total base runners in each of his last three starts as well, limiting opponents to a miniscule 0.52 WHIP over that span.
Chris Bassitt pitches for Toronto, a guy who has seen his peaks and valleys this season - and the valleys have been awful. The righty allowed eight earned runs in his last outing on 11 hits at Baltimore, and six or more runs in two of four outings before that. He has flashed elite offerings in other starts, but overall sports a well below-average Baseball Savant profile and a 4.49 xERA.
Both of these offenses are elite against right-handed pitching, so it'll come down to starting pitching - and Texas clearly has the pitcher in better form taking the mound here.