By JayRay
While I wish I could start by saying last weeks plays were all winners, breaking even at 2-2 is just how it goes sometimes. Losing is part of betting any sport and sometimes keeping your head above water until the big day comes is the best you can do. Learning to lose is critical to long term success as it can prevent overreacting and making mistakes (I know from experience). The great part about baseball is we can quickly get back at it. So true to the process lets review the results and then find some winners.
The Bets:
- Zack Wheeler OVER 19.5 outs (-110)
- Marlins First 5 innings Team Total UNDER 1.5 (-145)
The Results:
- Loss
- Win
Wheeler was as inefficient as I have ever seen him and missed OVER 19.5 outs. He averaged 4.19 pitches per batter faced and it took him 109 pitches to get through 6 innings. If you told me he would throw 109 pitches I would say he probably threw a complete game. The lone positive was that the Marlins are still the Marlins, and they could only score 1 in the first 5 innings despite the opportunities Wheeler provided which gave us a win on the first 5 team total UNDER 1.5. As for Wheeler’s struggles, it may be time to take a wait and see approach as he had another rough outing Sunday at the Mets giving up 6 runs in as many innings. No change on the Marlins, continue to fade them.
The Bet: Shane Bieber OVER 18.5 outs (-120)
The Result: Win
Bieber was as advertised, as was the Tigers offense, and he easily cashed. He needed only 91 pitches to get through 7 innings. He will continue to be lined at 18.5 or higher moving forward and should be played in the right matchups. Occasionally we may get 17.5 (-200) vs strong offenses which I would recommend playing every time until further notice. Just look at what he did to Toronto on Sunday.
The Bet: Marcus Stroman UNDER 1.5 earned runs (+135)
The Result: Loss
Sometimes you are just wrong and that was the case with Stroman UNDER 1.5 earned runs. He had trouble with the long ball all night allowing 3 homers on 5 total hits. He gave up 2 to Keibert Ruiz who only had 4 in 84 games coming into this match up. So, you could say there was some bad luck but anytime you give up 3 homers in an outing winning is not going to be a likely outcome.
With last week behind us let’s take a look at todays card and find some targets for Tuesday, August 16th, 2022:
*All plays to win 1 unit. Example:
- +100: 1 unit to win 1 unit
- -165: 1.65 units to win 1 unit
Astros @ White Sox – 8:10 p.m. ET
- First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-115) Fanduel
It is rare that I go after a result that combines the performance of both pitchers as I prefer earned runs or one side’s team total. However, both pitchers earned runs will be 1.5 and the first 5 team totals will be 1.5 with heavy juice. Unless a price releases outside of expectations I believe this is the best play. The positive is every book will offer this market so PLEASE SHOP AROUND.
The case for: Dylan Cease and Justin Verlander are both having phenomenal years as shown by being the top two favorites for this years American League Cy Young award. Verlander has made 21 starts this season and has allowed 2 or more runs in the first 5 innings 3 times. Despite being 39 he has an ERA under 2 and a near career best WHIP of .86. While his strike out percentage is down from what we have seen in the past he limits hard contact and home runs. Over the past 30 days the White Sox have been a league average offense and have benefited from some soft match ups. In games this season vs top line right handed starters (Manoah, Ohtani, Bieber, Gausman) they have averaged less then 2 runs in the first 5 innings. They will also continue to be without Tim Anderson, one of the team leaders in batting average and WRC+.
Dylan Cease hasn’t allowed more then 1 earned run in his last 11 starts. That includes matchups vs Toronto, Cleveland, and Minnesota. While he doesn’t go as deep into games as Verlander his profile is even better. He boasts a strike out rate in the 95th percentile and hard hit rate in the 89th percentile. He combines those with a walk rate in the 19th percentile. This translates to keeping runners off the bases and being able to get strike outs when he gets in a jam with runners in scoring position. The Astros are no picnic in terms of match up, but Cease has shut down ones of their caliber.
The case against: First 5 totals are usually lined between 4 and 4.5. At 3 or 3.5 there will be little margin for error. Both of these teams are capable of scoring runs and even the best pitchers have an occasional flat spot. Speaking of which, Verlander’s worst start of the year was vs the White Sox (3.2 innings, 4 earned runs). Guaranteed Rate Field is also offensively friendly with 125 home runs hit there this season. All that said I will be trusting Verlander and Cease to suppress the bats.
Padres @ Marlins – 6:40 p.m. ET
- Sean Manaea OVER 17.5 outs (-115) Draftkings
The case for: Another day, another Marlins fade. The question isn’t should I fade the Marlins it is just a matter of how. As I stated with Wheeler last week, since the all-star break starters are averaging 5.9 innings per start and 1.8 earned runs vs Miami. The Marlins get even worse vs lefties batting .181 with a WRC+ of 48. Manaea has been inconsistent lately and not someone I love backing right now but I will be on the Marlins fade train until they give me a reason not to.
The case against: Saying Manaea has been inconsistent lately is an understatement. His game logs are all over the place. Early this season he was as reliable to go 6 innings as anyone in the league, but he has gone 5 or less in 4 of his last 7 starts. Should he miss, I will go right back to fading the Marlins on Wednesday with Clevinger (OVER 17.5 outs and/or UNDER 2.5 earned runs).
Mariners @ Angels – 9:38 p.m. ET
- Robbie Ray OVER 19.5 outs (+100) Draftkings
The case for: Ray is an interesting pitcher from the stand point of his ability to look dominant and then against certain opponents look awful. For some reason Ray, like many pitchers, struggles vs Houston (less then 3 innings in 2 consecutive starts vs them in late July). He is also awful at Camden yards (ERA over 5 in each of the past 2 seasons at Camden yards). If you remove those 3 starts Ray has been everything you look for in pitcher to back for outs props and lucky for us this game is in Los Angelas. He has cleared this number in 7 of his last 9 starts while going over 100 pitches in 5 of those starts. In addition, he has dominated bad teams like the Angels. Against the Angels specifically, he has gone 7 innings in 2 starts allowing 1 run in each. This aligns with the Angels poor numbers vs lefties this season. They are a mirror image of the Marlins with a .163 batting average and WRC+ of 48.
The case against: When Ray struggles this season it is typically on the road. His ERA is nearly 2 runs higher on the road and has only gone into the 7th inning 3 times in 10 road starts. 18.5 is also never a guarantee as you never know for sure what a manager will do after their starter has given them 6 innings. Despite the risk, which I acknowledge is very real, I will back Ray to roll vs a poor Angels line up.
Orioles @ Blue Jays – 7:07 p.m. ET
- Alek Manoah OVER 18.5 outs (+105) Draftkings
The case for: Manoah is the definition of an ace with an ERA of 2.56, WHIP of 1.02, and a hard hit percentage in the 94th percentile. He averages 6.1 innings per start giving up less than 2 earned runs. In addition, he has shown the ability to go over 100 pitches on occasion and has a mediocre bullpen behind him so his manger will never be quick to remove him from a close game. At home this season Manoah is 8/10 to this over. In addition, he would have hit this number last week vs the same opponent if not for a rain delay after the 5th inning (77 pitches after 5 so should be well rested). This is also somewhat of a big game for the Blue Jays. The wild card race is getting tight and surprisingly the Orioles are only a few games behind. They play 11 more times this season so as long as the race is tight they will carry a little extra incentive. Watch for price movement on this one. Should it go to 17.5 (-200) it becomes an even better play.
The case against: As mentioned above the Orioles shouldn’t be taken lightly. They are very much alive in the American League wild card race despite selling at the trade deadline. While Manoah was on pace for 6 innings last week the Orioles scored 3 and gave him trouble early before he settled in for a quick 4th and 5th inning. I would not be surprised if the Orioles made it interesting and scored a few runs but I fully expect Manoah to go 6 innings, especially at home.
If you have any questions, feel free to send me a message on twitter, @JayRay. Best of luck!
- Jay Ray, Special to The Betting Predators
Our Early Bird NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! The Betting Predators NFL Premium Package was created to give you with the highest-quality betting + player prop analysis. We're here to help you save time, win money, and become a long-term profitable sports bettor. Our team of analysts, led by Steve Rieder and Chris Dell, deliver real-time best bets and player prop analysis, every week, to make sure you crush your sportsbook. Get $20 OFF with code "NFL20" for our best price all season.