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WEEK 18 Record: 4-0
YEAR-TO-DATE Record: 45-27-1
Young Quarterbacks New to the Postseason
For the first time all season, we’re giving out a total in situational spots. The theme of these playoffs is a lot of new quarterbacks on the biggest of stages. I usually like to bet on some nervous tensions early for inexperienced postseason players in all sports and that’s the angle I’m looking to exploit in Saturday night’s Chargers at Jaguars tilt. It’ll be the first playoff start for both Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. If last Saturday’s winner-take-all AFC South game is any indication, Lawrence might be a little tight as it took the 2021 first overall pick close to a half to really settle in and start hitting on some big plays. While the biggest injury news this week surrounded Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson, we got news by the end of the week that Mike Williams will not be able to play for the Chargers in the playoffs unless Los Angeles gets to the Super Bowl. A big target like this who’s an excellent contested catch receiver may limit Herbert’s ability to get the ball downfield. We’re going to bet on both quarterbacks being a little tight and the Chargers at least coming out a bit more conservatively on offense sans Williams and take the first half under 23.5 in this game.
Your Luck’s Over Minnesota
I’ve been telling myself for weeks I was going to fade the Minnesota Vikings in their first playoff game and the time has come. The purple people eaters are the first time in the NFL since 1940 to win 12+ games while posting a negative point differential. Minnesota’s struggles for significant margin have been well documented all season and its four blowout losses to Philly, Dallas, Detroit and Green Bay are an indicator its 13-4 record is more like 9-8 or even 8-9. On Christmas Eve, the Vikings needed a 61-yard field goal from Greg Joseph to slide by the Giants 27-24. It was a game in which the Giants outgained Minnesota by 92 yards despite running five fewer plays and the Giants aren’t exactly known to be an offensive juggernaut. Sooner or later, Minnesota is going to lose a tight game and even if the Vikings pull this one out, I don’t think it will be by more than three points. Saquon Barkley had 133 total yards and a touchdown in Week 16 against the Vikings. Now he’s had a week to rest after the Giants had nothing on the line last Sunday in Philly and could be in line for an even bigger day. I’m on New York +3.
A Buy Low on Big D
Let’s stay in the NFC East to wrap up our trio of Wild Card spots and focus on the Dallas Cowboys. All you’ve heard this week on the major networks has been Tom Brady is 7-0 against them. Well, that’s not all you’ve heard. You’ve probably also heard a lot of talk about Mike McCarthy’s job security and the Cowboys having not won a road playoff game in 30 years. Notice how none of that has to do with the 2022-23 Dallas Cowboys and the 2022-23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I bring that up to say that Dallas has been substantially better than Tampa all season, despite a 19-3 Week 1 loss to the Bucs. I think some of the narratives surrounding this game are clouding the perception that the Cowboys are the vastly superior team. In the regular season, I always like to bet on teams after they get embarrassed and I have that angle working for me in this game as well. Dallas got whitewashed by Washington last Sunday in a game that still meant something to the Cowboys with the NFC East still up for grabs. I’m banking on positive regression for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense and the talent deficiencies to hinder any real shot Tampa has here and taking the Cowboys at -2.5. It’s a cheap price on the better team that I want to take advantage of.
By Greg Frank
@G_Frank6
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