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WEEK 15 Record: 3-1
YEAR-TO-DATE Record: 41-27-1
Steve’s Sendoff
The last week of the NFL regular season can always be tricky from a gambling standpoint. Teams with nothing to play for could opt for all different kinds of ways to deploy their roster. Teams with everything on the line could either play with the proper urgency or tighten up in the big moment. Sometimes there are exploitable angles from teams out of the playoff mix and that’s where we’re going to start in Week 18. The Carolina Panthers travel to the big easy to take on the Saints. Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. New Orleans steadily underperformed all year, got its signature win last week in Philly and may well tap out here. Carolina got off to a horrendous start, fired Matt Rhule in October and played with new life under interim coach Steve Wilks. It doesn’t appear that Wilks is a serious candidate for the full-time job in Charlotte, but I’m willing to bet that the Panthers play hard for the guy that rejuvenated their season one more time. Getting north of a field goal with the Panthers here is good enough for me. I’ll take Panthers +3.5.
All Sorts of Motivation in Pittsburgh
As we alluded to, Week 18 can be all about motivation and there’s plenty of it for the Steelers as they welcome in the Browns. Pittsburgh has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the second half, going 6-2 since its bye week to turn a 2-6 start into an 8-8 record and stay in the playoff hunt. The Steelers will need some help to get to the postseason, but they’ll be playing at the same time as the other teams involving their playoff chances. Additionally, by now you’ve probably heard Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a losing season in his 16 years as Steelers head coach. It’s one of the most impressive stats in the league when you consider how easy it is to have one disjointed season with transitioning personnel. There’s just too much on the line for the Steelers to avoid taking them here and conversely the Browns have been playing irrelevant football for weeks now. Pittsburgh -2.5 it is.
Seattle’s Spoiler
Sometimes one team needing to win and its opponent not needing the game can result in an inflated line. While that might not be the case in Pittsburgh, it’s certainly the case in Seattle when the Seahawks host the Rams. Sure, the Seahawks beat the Jets 23-6 last week to stay in the playoff hunt in the NFC. But the Jets sure folded pretty good down the stretch and that score says more about them than it does Seattle. After all, don’t forget the Seahawks were 0-6 ATS in their last six games leading up to last Sunday’s victory over New York. The Seahawks simply aren’t playing good football as the season winds down and I’m not sure the switch is going to be flipped in a must-win game. They feel more like a team that tightens up under these circumstances than one that takes care of business easily. Now let’s factor in the opponent for Seattle. The Los Angeles Rams do not own a first-round pick in this year’s draft so there’s certainly no reason for LA to lose here. It’s the last chance for Baker Mayfield to make an impression upon the rest of the NFL that he can still play. Don’t you think Bobby Wagner would love some revenge on his old pals in the Pacific Northwest in knocking them out of the playoffs? I’m all over Rams +6.
A Cheesy Overreaction
Admittedly, the Packers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. But did we all forget that the Lions have been one of the league’s best in the second half as well? Detroit laid one egg a couple weeks ago against Carolina and it might cost the Lions the last wild card in the NFC. However, the Lions are 8-8 on the 2022 campaign after a 1-6 start. Their resurgence started with a 15-9 win at home against Green Bay a couple weeks ago. In a game with both teams trending upward, between a pair of division foes, this number should be more like -2.5/-3 for the Packers. I like this a ton if Seattle loses and it becomes a winner-take-all game for the last playoff spot in the NFC. I still think Detroit will be motivated to knock the Packers out of the playoffs even if the Lions can’t claim the spot. I’m on Lions +4.5.
By Greg Frank
@G_Frank6
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