By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistic we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Net Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets from round to round.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained tee to green numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will often regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals 'ball striking') are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained net rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained net rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass. We especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
GENESIS INVITATIONAL: ROUND 3 TOP BUYS (Strokes Gained Net Rating)
Matt Jones +6.75 *****
Cameron Smith +5.82 *****
Joel Dahmen +5.42 ***
Dylan Frittelli +4.17 ***
Paul Casey +4.12 ***
Aaron Wise +4.05 ***
Alex Noren +4.02 ***
Sebastian Munoz +4.13 **
Jordan Spieth +3.99 **
Max Homa +3.74 **
Scott Piercy +3.65 **
Nick Watney +3.09 **
GENESIS INVITATIONAL: ROUND 3 TOP FADES (Strokes Gained Net Rating)
Doc Redman -4.17 ***
Peter Malnati -3.47 ***
Sahith Theegala -3.47 ***
Maverick McNealy -3.03 ***
Kyounghoon Lee -2.96 ***
Lee Hodges -4.18 **
Abraham Ancer -3.84 (REDACTED)
BEST BETS FOR ROUND 3:
Head To Heads (0.5 Units) -
- Cameron Smith -0.5 > Marc Leishman @ Caesars -125
- Cameron Smith ML > Viktor Hovland @ BetOnline -120
- Matt Jones -0.5 > Pat Perez @ Caesars -130
- Matt Jones ML > C.T. Pan @ BetOnline -138
3 Balls/Props (0.25 Units) -
- Matt Jones > Cameron Tringale/Peter Malnati @ BetOnline +180
- Dylan Frittelli > Alex Smalley/Lee Hodges @ MyBookie +180
- Russell Knox Top GB/IRE Player @ FanDuel +135
- Russell Knox Top Scottish Player @ FanDuel -165
Outrights (0.1 Units):
None for this round
Longshots (0.05 Units):
None for this round
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Indicates the number of threshold metrics a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade" in out of:
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Net Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie