Our NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! Get full access to our best bets, given out early in the week, in real time: sides, totals, player props, and more, all in one place, through the end of the Super Bowl.
When it comes to building a DraftKings lineup there is a particular art form to it. It becomes even more nuanced when you are building specifically for tournaments. There is a common misconception that you must pick these crazy, long-shot lottery ticket type picks. In reality, that’s not even close and actually a terrible way to go. You can still play plenty of the popular or “chalky” plays. They are popular for a reason and that reason is that they project very well and seem very likely to hit their projection. You can still play these but only a few of them in each lineup at a maximum and mix up the exposure throughout multiple lineups. Mixing those “chalky” plays into the same lineup as good leverage plays and great stacks is the ideal way to go to create a well-built tournament lineup. The entire roster build itself is really the true key to creating great tournament lineups.
This week’s tip will be explaining the difference between cumulative rostership and product rostership. On the surface, it is very straightforward. For cumulative rostership, you will simply just add up all the roster percentages to get a total. For product rostership, you will instead multiply all the roster percentages. For example, if you had chosen four players all of who have a 20% roster percentage, the cumulative rostership would be 80%. The product rostership would then be 0.16%. Now if you would choose four players, two of whom have a 35% roster percentage and the other two of whom have a 5% roster percentage, they would also have an 80% cumulative rostership. However, this group would have a 0.03% product rostership. This indicates that the second build will create a much more unique lineup. When building tournament lineups, the lower the product rostership the more unique a lineup will be even if the cumulative rostership is the same or slightly higher. For more tips on leverage and contest selection, make sure to check out Week 11’s article.
Quarterbacks: Justin Herbert (LAC) – $7,000 @ ARI (3.8% projected rostership)
Justin Herbert started the 2022 season right where he left off the 2021 season: BALLING. He had over 50 DraftKings points over the first two weeks before he and his weapons started getting injured. Herbert had a potentially serious rib injury but didn’t miss any games. It definitely affected his play because there was a dropoff in fantasy production after that point. Last week he got Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back and so it’s no coincidence it was one of his best games of the season. Williams is likely out this week but Allen should be playing. According to our Betting Predators model, Herbert also gets an awesome matchup this week. The Arizona Cardinals have been the sixth-easiest defense for quarterbacks to face this year. They have also allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks on the season. Burrow is currently averaging 24.1 DraftKings. The combined total of this game is nice as well at 48 points. These teams are also two of the fastest-paced teams in the league which should lead to more plays (and more chances for fantasy points) for both sides.
This week there’s not as much pricepoint leverage to be had. There will be plenty of people that play Tua Tagovailoa ($6,900 / 8.8%) and Joe Burrow ($6,700 / 7.5%) but they won’t be as chalky as we saw last week with Justin Fields. There is nice game leverage to be had though. Austin Ekeler ($8,500 / 24.8%) is shaping up as one of the chalkiest running backs on the slate. Playing Herbert (even with Ekeler) is a nice way to gain leverage off of a very chalky piece. There isn’t as much negative correlation between Herbert and Ekeler as there normally is between quarterback and running back but people will still shy away due to preconceived notions as well as total salary limitations. When stacking Herbert there are a few ways to go about it. Keenan Allen ($6,100 / 6.9%) is my favorite piece to use. As previously mentioned pairing Burrow with Ekeler is a different way to use both as plenty of people will shy away due to the usual negative correlation between running backs and quarterbacks on the same team. Ekeler catches enough passes that it can work, however. Herbert with Ekeler will be more popular than last week’s Burrow with Mixon correlations, though. In addition to Allen and Ekeler, there are two other viable stacking pieces for the Chargers. Josh Palmer ($5,400 / 3.7%) and DeAndre Carter ($3,400 / 1.9%) are both great pieces to put in single or double stacks of Herbert lineups. If Gerald Everett ($4,400 / 1.8%) plays, he’s a viable piece as well although a bit riskier coming off a groin injury.
Stacks to Consider: Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen + Josh Allen + DeAndre Hopkins / Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen + James Conner / Justin Herbert + Austin Ekeler + DeAndre Carter + DeAndre Hopkins
Other Quarterbacks to Consider: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) – $5,600 v NO (2.6%), Trevor Lawrence (JAX) – $5,500 v BAL (4.2%)
Running Backs: Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) – $5,900 v HOU (5.8% projected rostership)
After a few weeks of highlighting stud running backs that were going to be rostered it far too few of lineups, we’ll take a look at a value running back this week going a bit overlooked. Jeff Wilson Jr. likely should be in a lot more tournament lineups than he is going to be in this weekend. This is the juiciest matchup you could ask for as a running back. The Houston Texans have been the easiest matchup for running backs according to our Betting Predators model. It makes sense too as they have allowed the most DraftKings points to running backs this season as well. On the season Wilson Jr. is averaging 12 DraftKings points per game, however, he’s only been on the Miami Dolphins for two games now. In his first game he saw nine carries and three targets on 44% snaps. Those numbers jumped to 17 carries and five targets on 62% of snaps last game. He has averaged more than 19 DraftKings points per game over that span. This game has one of the higher combined totals at 47 points and the Dolphins have one of the highest implied team totals at 30.5 points. They are also 13.5-point favorites so everything is setting up perfectly for a monster outing for Wilson Jr.
Per usual, we are looking mostly at some game leverage here. Tyreek Hill ($8,800 / 16.8%) has been amazing this season and will likely be one of the more popular wide receiver plays this weekend once again. Most people who play Hill won’t want to use Wilson Jr. as well. Jaylen Waddle ($7,300 / 11.2%) will likely draw a decent amount of rostership as well, albeit not quite as much as Hill. This is going to push a lot of people away from Wilson Jr. as well despite the amazing matchup. Wilson Jr. is just the 14th most expensive running back on the slate. There isn’t too much pricepoint leverage with Wilson Jr. this week although both David Montgomery ($6,400 / 12.4%) and Dameon Pierce ($6,100 / 14.1%) will both likely draw some rostership away from Wilson Jr. this week. When correlating Wilson Jr. this week, my favorite option is Nico Collins ($4,100 / 4.9%). Collins has seen 17 targets and caught ten passes over the last two weeks and should continue to see a lot of looks in a great game script. He’s also very cheap and should be a great point-per-dollar play. There are two other good correlated options, including Brandin Cooks ($5,200 / 3.6%) and Dameon Pierce ($6,100 / 14.1%). Normally Pierce wouldn’t be but both Pierce and Wilson Jr. are involved enough in the passing game that it is viable. In addition, plenty of people will shy away from playing them together in the same lineup.
Stacks to Consider: Jeff Wilson Jr. + Brandin Cooks / Jeff Wilson Jr. + Nico Collins / Jeff Wilson Jr. + Tua Tagovailoa + Jaylen Waddle + Dameon Pierce
Other Running Backs to Consider: Derrick Henry (TEN) – $8,300 v CIN (6.8%), Antonio Gibson (WAS) - $5,400 v ATL (4.1%), Michael Carter (NYJ) – $5,400 v CHI (2.2%)
Wide Receivers: Tyler Lockett (SEA) – $6,200 v LV (6.8% projected rostership)
Death, taxes, and Tyler Lockett staying underrated every single season. Lockett has become the most underrated wide receiver in the NFL and it’s been that way for years now. Every year he gets pushed down draft boards and he always outperforms his ADP. This year was even more exaggerated due to the departure of Russell Wilson. With Geno Smith at the helm, there wasn’t much optimism for this Seattle Seahawks offense. Instead, Smith and the Seahawks have wildly outperformed expectations and enabled Lockett to become a great value once again. Lockett is averaging 15.2 DraftKings points per game in 2022. That puts him as WR19 on the season. This week he gets a great matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are not good on defense at all. This game has one of the highest combined totals on the slate at 47.5 points. The Seahawks implied team total of 25.5 points is also one of the highest on the slate.
This is another place where we are attacking with game leverage. Kenneth Walker III ($6,900 / 19.8%) is definitely going to be one of the chalkiest running backs on the slate. He’s been awesome and is facing this horrible Raiders defense. That being said, Lockett is playing in this exact same game environment and going to be far less chalky since people won’t want to play both of them together. That alone makes Lockett a great leverage play for tournaments on this slate. There is some pricepoint leverage to be had with Terry McLaurin ($5,800 / 13.3%) and Chris Godwin ($6,000 / 9.6%) both in the same salary range and likely to pull some rostership away from Lockett. There are a few great correlated plays to use with Lockett here but my favorite is Davante Adams ($8,600 / 11.5%). Adams is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and also provides some extra leverage off a chalkier Josh Jacobs ($7,700 / 13.9%). Jacobs is a great correlated play in his own right albeit just a bit on the chalkier side is all, but that’s fine, especially at the running back position. Foster Moreau ($3,400 / 12.2%) and Mack Hollins ($4,400 / 3.2%) are also viable correlated plays as well.
Stacks to Consider: Tyler Lockett + Davante Adams / Tyler Lockett + Josh Jacobs / Geno Smith + Tyler Lockett + Davante Adams
Other Wide Receivers to Consider: D.K. Metcalf (SEA) – $6,500 v LV (7.8%), Davante Adams (LV) – $8,600 @ SEA (11.5%), Keenan Allen (LAC) – $6,100 @ ARI (6.9%), Christian Kirk (JAX) – $6,500 v BAL (4.3%)
Tight Ends: Gerald Everett (LAC) – $4,400 @ ARI (1.8% projected rostership)
We’ve come full circle in this article at this point by starting out with a Los Angeles Charger and ending with one as well. Gerald Everett has been more good than bad this season. He’s dealt with a groin injury that has derailed his season a bit but on the season he’s still averaging 9.2 DraftKings points per game. Only nine tight ends are averaging more points per game this season. That number even counts the game he left early with that groin injury. It also caused him to miss last week but he should be back this week just in time for an amazing matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed more DraftKings points to tight ends this season than any other team in the league. As previously mentioned, this game also has one of the highest combined totals at 48 points and the pace of this game should be one of the fastest on the slate. The Chargers have a very nice implied team total of 25.5 points as well. It’s very possible he could be featured a bit more this week too as Mike Williams is likely to miss this one. Be sure to monitor Everett’s status too as he should play but there still is some uncertainty.
This is another week where playing Everett gives you a lot of game leverage. As previously mentioned, Austin Ekeler ($8,500 / 24.8%) is likely to be one of the chalkiest players on the entire slate as it sits right now. Playing Everett and the Chargers' passing game is a great way to gain leverage off of those who play Ekeler. Ekeler is one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league, however, so he will be used more than usual alongside other pass catchers but that still doesn’t mean using Everett doesn’t give us leverage because it does. There isn’t a ton of pricepoint leverage to be had here as Travis Kelce ($7,700 / 14.4%) is likely to be the chalkiest tight end and the salary isn’t close. There are a few different options for correlated plays but my favorite is DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 / 7.3%). Hopkins has been incredible since returning from suspension averaging 22.3 DraftKings points per game. That’s an elite number that only a few wide receivers in the NFL are averaging this season. Greg Dortch ($3,100 / 9.9%) and James Conner ($6,600 / 4.9%) are also very strong correlated plays too. Everett can also be used as a runback option in Kyler Murray ($6,800 / 1.9%) stacks.
Stacks to Consider: Justin Herbert + Gerald Everett + DeAndre Hopkins / Gerald Everett + James Conner / Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen + Gerald Everett + Greg Dortch
Other Tight Ends to Consider: Evan Engram (JAX) – $3,200 v BAL (3.6%), Tyler Conklin (NYJ) – $3,100 v CHI (2.2%)
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, generally, it is the last position I fill. There are, however, a few rules to follow when doing so. The first rule is that you should rarely, if ever, play a DST in the same lineup as the quarterback or running back they are facing. There is a strong negative correlation between them and you are building a lineup in which you want every piece to hit its ceiling. The second rule is to target defenses with high pressure rates and/or are facing offensive lines that allow high pressure rates. More pressure creates more opportunities for sacks and turnovers, which is where the defensive touchdowns come from. Those defensive touchdowns are needed to hit ceiling outcomes. The third, and perhaps more important rule is to try your best to avoid the popular or “chalky” defenses of the week. Defensive scoring is so random and variant that it makes it extremely unpredictable. It’s usually much better to get leverage and lean into that unpredictability and use game theory for the sake of being different.
Important Note: These rules are much more critical in larger-field GPP tournaments. As the field gets smaller, it becomes less crucial to stick strictly to these rules.
Sample Large Field Tournament Lineup
QB – Justin Herbert ($7,000 / 3.8%)
RB – Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,900 / 5.8%)
RB – Michael Carter ($5,400 / 2.2%)
WR – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 / 7.3%)
WR – Keenan Allen ($6,100 / 6.9%)
WR – Tyler Lockett ($6,200 / 6.8%)
TE – Gerald Everett ($4,400 / 1.8%)
Flex – Treylon Burks ($4,200 / 8.9%)
DST – Tennessee Titans ($3,100 / 6.7%)
Cumulative Totals – ($50,000 / 50.2%)
Product Rostership – .0000000001783%
Sample Small Field Tournament Lineup
QB – Justin Herbert ($7,000 / 3.8%)
RB – Austin Ekeler ($8,500 / 24.8%)
RB – Travis Etienne ($6,700 / 13.6%)
WR – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 / 7.3%)
WR – Greg Dortch ($3,100 / 9.9%)
WR – Skyy Moore ($3,000 / 8.7%)
TE – Gerald Everett ($4,400 / 1.8%)
Flex – Tee Higgins ($6,900 / 6.5%)
DST – Las Vegas Raiders ($2,600 / 5.2%)
Cumulative Totals – ($49,900 / 81.6%)
Product Rostership – .000000004903%
Make sure to tune in next week to see the best plays and stacks for tournaments for Week 13!
By Rob Norton
@norton0723
Want to have direct access to our network of Betting Predators handicappers? Sign up for our FREE Discord channel to get 24/7 direct access to our handicapping team, as well as our community of sharp bettors
Want an easy to find all of our Betting Predators content in one place? Sign up for our free newsletter, Substack and receive a weekly roundup on everything we've published (FREE + PREMIUM), and all that we're up to throughout the week. We promise we'll never give your email address out for advertising purposes.