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By Ben Martinez
Every week daily fantasy sports (DFS) players are aiming to create a near perfect lineup in order to take home the most money in their GPP (guaranteed prize pool) tournaments. The top entries will typically have a few representatives from this "perfect" lineup, and it's important to be mindful of what player combinations and correlated stacks are needed to win big from week to week. In this weekly recap article, we'll take a closer look at the previous week's perfect lineup and compare it to the winner of a large GPP DraftKings contest. We'll reflect on strategies and trends for our future lineups.
With Week 3 of the DraftKings $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest in the books we take a look at "Abedollars" Million dollar line up that didn't necessarily blow the competition away but was good enough to take home the top prize scoring only 210.88 points compared to Week 2 winner "madcow" with 284.16 points. This winning lineup has to be one of the most contrarian lineups we will see this year.
Stacks on Stacks
Lamar Jackson (2.3%) and Mark Andrews (2.6%) usually are a chalk stack a majority of the year. Both players come into Week 3 with the second highest salary cost of the week at their respective positions.
In Lamar Jackson's two previous matchups against the Patriots, he had a passing rating of 102.7 with 412 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Jackson added four more passing touchdowns this week and added a rushing touchdown becoming the first quarterback to rush for over 100 yards against a Belichick led defense.
Three weeks are in the books and three weeks in a row, a top two salary cost tight-end has been a part of the million dollar lineup. Mark Andrews goes back to back in the winning lineup scoring 28.90 this week after scoring 28.70 last week. Andrews is Lamar Jackson number one option and at a price tag of $6,900 he outscored every wide receiver at this price and higher. Could we see a fourth week in a row of a top tier tight-end rostered on a million dollar lineup?
The mini stack of this lineup includes one chalk and one contrarian player. Leonard Fournette(16%) was a huge letdown this week in DFS. Scoring only 12 points on the tenth highest salary cost of a running back. Fournette wasn't the only let down at running back as nine of the 10 top running backs at salary cost also had a snowflake next to their point total.
Fournette's stack teammate Allen Lazard (1.4%) didn't light the world on fire either but with his low ownership percentage this lineup was able to have a variety that very few lineups had. At a cost of $6,000 Lazard was a pretty contrarian pick being that this was his first game of the season with not a positive history of being a stand out wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers to target. Hollywood Brown (4.4%) who was a piece of the perfect lineup was going for the same price as Allen Lazard, which means to me that every lineup can make a mistake and become a millionaire.
Chalk Talk
The two running backs in this line up ended up being the third and fourth most used players at this position for Week 3. We already talked about Fournette, so now we will talk about rookie Dameon Pierce (13.9%). Last week Pierce was the only running back in the entire NFL not to share a carry with another running back on the same roster. The value of that plus running against one of the worst run stopping defenses in the NFL bumped Pierce's percentage up for Week 3. Two former players rostered on last week's million dollar lineup returns. Jaylen Waddle (16.9%) who everyone hoped would duplicate his Week 2 performance against a Buffalo secondary riddled by injury and a Jaguars defense (15.7%) that held their own despite scoring lower than last week's fiery performance.
Middle Of The Pack
There is no way Mack Hollins (8.8%) was owned at nearly 9% before kickoff Sunday against the Titans with Hunter Renfrow probable to play all week. I'm not sure if this makes Hollins a Chalk or Contrarian play but the value was found in a wide receiver at a cost of $3,300. Hollins was the second highest scoring wide receiver of the week catching eight balls for 158 yards and one touchdown. Hollins even had four yards passing.
Contrarian Plays
Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews were the contrarian stack that put any lineup in a position to win money this week. Lazard was the most contrarian player for this group, but along with Mack Hollins, DeVonta Smith (5.6%) was the player to put this lineup over the top and into the number one spot being the highest scoring wide receiver of pthe week. At a value cost of $5,200, Smith caught one touchdown, had eight receptions for 169 yards.
The Perfect Line Up
Four players from the winning lineup are included in the perfect lineup. Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, DeVonta Smith, Mack Hollins. Unlike last week there are no mini stacks in this group and not a single player with a double digit ownership percentage.
The Perfect Contrarian Stack
We start with the only two players that have any type of relationship in this lineup, Lamar Jackson (2.3%)/Mark Andrew (2.6%) stacked this lineup with no bring back for a total of 72.32 points this week.
The Perfect WR/DEF Stack
With the highest score at both their positions, DeVonta Smith and the Eagles defense proved to be part of the perfect formula. We talked about Smith's dominants this week in the winning lineup column. The Eagles defensive line ranked in the top tier of most of the industries ranking list, the Eagles front 7 had nine sacks, allowed six points to the Commanders offense, and had a fumble recovery.
Thin Chalk
Mack Hollins (8.8%) and Cordarrelle Patterson (9.1%) were as chalky as this lineup gets. Neither were over double digits in percentage owned but like we stated before Hollins was a last second add after Renfrow was ruled out hours before kickoff. Patterson on the other hand was priced pretty cheap for a starting running back ($5,800), going against one of the worst run stopping defenses in the league. Patterson only had one catch on the day, but ran for 141 yards and one touchdown.
Contrarian Champions
The rest of the best include Khalil Herbert (0.3%), Chris Olave (5%), and Marquise Brown (4.4%). David Montgomery was the highest owned player in DFS this week. After the performance he put on against the Packers in Week 2 plus going up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, Montgomery was a can't miss play that had 33% of the playing field (including me) rostering him this week. Of course Montgomery gets hurt in the first quarter and couldn't return to the game leaving Khalil Herbert and his $5,200 price tag to go out and dominate every running back this week scoring 33.90 points. The signs for playing Chris Olave (5%) were bright. Leading all wide receivers in air yards last week with 334, everyone was wondering if this was a fluke or not. Getting a positive game script and having both Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry exit the game gave Olave the spotlight and boy did he produce. Nine catches for 147 yards made Olave the number four wide receiver to own. Speaking of bright, Hollywood Marquise Brown shined bright against a Rams secondary missing three of their top four defensive backs. Brown cooked Los Angeles, catching 14 balls for 140 yards, making him the third highest scoring wideout of the week.
This week had some odd outcomes. Two of the top four scoring running backs were back ups, only one of the top ten scoring wide receivers for week three is considered the wide receiver one on their own team (Marquise Brown), and three weeks in a row one of the two top tight-ends is in the winning lineup.
