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By Ben Martinez
Every week daily fantasy sports (DFS) players are aiming to create a near perfect lineup in order to take home the most money in their GPP (guaranteed prize pool) tournaments. The top entries will typically have a few representatives from this "perfect" lineup, and it's important to be mindful of what player combinations and correlated stacks are needed to win big from week to week. In this weekly recap article, we'll take a closer look at the previous week's perfect lineup and compare it to the winner of a large GPP DraftKings contest. We'll reflect on strategies and trends for our future lineups.
Breaking Down The Winning Lineup
The heart of these two lineups starts with a Dolphin/Ravens double stack of QB/WR/WR which is Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle but the winning lineup has a bring back of Mark Andrews (9.2%) which was a great strategy. Tua (3.6%) was the perfect bounce back candidate after underperforming Week 1. His ownership was under 4%, which caused many players to also leave Waddle(6.3%) out of their lineups as well. After Tyreek Hill (14.4%) had 12 targets, eight receptions for 94 yards Week 1, Hill's ownership increased to 14.4% while his cost increased only $300. Andrews was a perfect bring back while his price tag decreased $400 from $6,800 to $6,400 this week. Andrews is Baltimore's best pass catcher being targeted 11 times with nine catches for 104 yards and one touchdown. No more stacks were included on this million dollar lineup.
The owner of this lineup ate some chalk with their final two pass catchers Amon-Ra St. Brown (19.7%) and Greg Dortch (21.3%). St. Brown had a great Week 1 which I'm sure caused his ownership percentage to sky rocket. Gotta admit I'm a dork for Dortch and so was the rest of the DFS community. Greg Dortch (21.3%) was a super chalky play. Grabbing the attention of fantasy players both season long and daily, the man with nine targets Week 1 gave every player hope that they could attach this high target wide receiver for only $3,500 and he would reproduce a similar stat line. Dortch finished with 15.50 points, nearly five times his price total.
When it comes to Nick Chubb (8.4%) the format that DraftKings uses for their scoring system makes every semi-knowledgeable DFS player scared to include him in their lineups each and every week. The "non"-catching running back that shares the backfield with Kareem Hunt is what usually keeps Chubb's ownership percentage low and makes him an amazing contrarian play in the right circumstances, running in what was a sure fire positive game script on Sunday against the New York Jets. Cleveland never trailed until the final 25 seconds of the game allowing the Browns to control the game from the ground and Chubb took advantage of every red zone opportunity he received. It is impossible to predict a three touchdown game by the way.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (10.4%) had a similar game to Chubb. 18 rush attempts for 84 yards in what was the perfect positive game script. San Francisco didn't allow a point to Seattle until the third quarter, plus with Trey Lance going down early with his ankle injury, all the designed quarterback runs were placed back into Kyle Shanahan folder as Jimmy Garoppolo went under center. Now at a cost of $5,100 Wilson Jr. should have been a high chalk play, but no one could predict Lance getting hurt. With Shanahan's history of utilizing multiple running backs, and never naming a lead rusher, it's no surprise Wilson Jr was a low 10.4% ownership. Next week I predict Wilson will be too chalky to play in a game that could have Wilson Jr. in a negative game script.
Lastly we talk defense, Jacksonville (1.8%) put up an impressive 21 point performance in shutting out Indianapolis. While everyone was chowing down on the chalky Cincinnati Bengals (49.94%) at a price tag of $2,200, Jacksonville was only $100 more.
Breaking Down The Perfect Lineup
The perfect lineup includes five of the nine players from the DraftKings $20.4M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest. Tagovailoa, Chubb, Hill, St. Brown, and Waddle. This perfection doesn't include a bring back from the Dolphins/Ravens showdown but included two mini-stacks, a pass catching running back, and an overpriced defense that worked.
The first of the two mini-stacks was Amon-Ra St. Brown and Logan Thomas (7.17%). Both pass catching players had a symbiotic relationship in this game that worked to perfection. St. Brown got off to a hot start in this matchup scoring the first of two touchdowns in the first half, helping the Lions establish a 22-0 halftime lead. The Commanders first touchdown was thrown to Thomas in the third quarter and Washington started to mount a comeback. Amon-Ra would explode in the second half with a 58 yard jet-sweep and another touchdown in the fourth quarter.
The second mini-stack came in the form of a running back and wide receiver who played in a positive game script for the entire game. We already went into depth with Nick Chubb in the winning lineup so let's focus more on the rookie Garrett Wilson (0.52%). While taking a second look at Wilson's Week 1, the rookie had only one less target than everyone's darling Greg Dortch. Wilson was going to play in a positive game script according to the spread, and has a non-mobile quarterback that can still sling the ball all over the field. I can see why Wilson was not a chalky play being that Dortch was $900 dollars less and playing in the highest scoring total spread on Sunday, The odds makers made the Browns/Jets a 38.5 total spread, which was second lowest of the week. Garrett Wilson finished with 14 targets, eight catches for 102 yards and two touchdowns.
Tony Pollard (0.54%) emerged as the second best running back on Sunday. Pollard did it through the air and on the ground as he combined for 98 yards with 13 total touches and a touchdown. Playing keep away from the Bengals high power offense seemed to be the plan.
As for the defense, Tampa Bay (3.26%) had the seventh highest price tag at $3,300. Here's why defense is a crapshoot. Jacksonville was the better team to pick until the fourth quarter started. Jameis Winston would throw three interceptions with one being a pick six. He was also sacked three times, with a total of six sacks for the game, and Chris Olave would fumble the ball away after completing a 51 yard reception to end the game. You just can't predict that kind of productivity.
