By Sleepy J / Donnie Dyce
Week 12 Value Stack
Trevor Lawrence ($5,400) / L. Shenault ($4,400) / J Robinson ($6,200)
These three players haven’t been used much this season, but it could be time to use them all together in Week 12. The Atlanta Falcons defense is miserable and the Jags are at home for this game. Lawrence hasn’t had a real chance to throw the ball all over the field since Week 8, and while I believe many will flock to Marvin Jones Jr. in this spot, I'll gladly pivot to Laviska Shenault, who now has 13 targets and 8 catches over his last 2 games. Robinson will be back from the injury as well for the second week in a row and he’s also a guy who can and will catch passes out of the backfield, with a few 5 and 6 target games to his credit already this season. We have a healthy o/u game total of 47 with a tight point spread, so all in all the odds makers are expecting points from each of these teams this week. I agree, and I also say we stack up the Jaguars options above who could very well make for a very low-owned and cheap stack in tournaments given the Falcons' exploitable secondary and virtually non-existent pass rush. No one will want to play Lawrence this week and Robinson's ownership should be held in check given his down game in Week 11.
RB Value Play
Miles Sanders ($5,100)
Sanders came back to the lineup last week and had one of his better games of the 2021 season with 16 rush attempts and 94 rushing yards. While Sanders didn’t get into he end zone, the efficiency and volume has to be noted. Sanders fumbled the ball early in the game but resumed the Eagle's lead dog role after Jordan Howard went down with a knee injury. Sanders will likely be in line for another potential 15-20+ touches against the lowly New York Giants, who rank near the bottom five in most run defense categories while the Eagles, on the other hand, rank seventh overall in both PFF rushing and PFF run blocking. The Giants' 25th-graded run defense ranks third worst by DVOA, and we can also expect lowered pass attempts by Hurts here and more rushing attempts overall as a team. Hurts himself won't be scoring three touchdowns on the ground each week like he did in Week 11, so positive regression for Sanders is also on our side here. While he's not a top cash game play, he does tournament-winning upside at his low price.
D/ST Value Play
The Miami Dolphins have won three games in a row and haven’t allowed more than 17 points in each of those contests. The Fins will face another juicy matchup with the Carolina Panthers this week, and while Newton will be a fantasy favorite in making his second straight start, he has shown to be turnover-prone through the air over his last few seasons as a starting signal-caller in the NFL. Despite missing their two defensive stars for early portions of the season in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, the Dolphins still sport a top 10 overall defensive unit grade according to PFF, as well as the seventh best run defense in the NFL, the latter of which could bode well in slowing down the two-headed rushing attack of Newton and Christian McCaffrey in Week 12. If the Dolphins can score points early and force additional Newton dropbacks in this contest, we could be seeing a ton of turnover-worthy plays headed our way.